Tim O'Reilly Points Toward Next 'Killer App'

santos_douglas writes "Extreme Tech has this article in which Tim O'Reilly, the man behind every geeks favorite tech manuals, points toward four major leading indicators that will predict the next likely 'killer app' to emerge from the hacker community. They are: (1) Amazon.com web services (2) BARWN (3) Hardware hackers and (4) online gaming communities."

Comments

Re:MUSIC IS THE NEXT KILLER APP

[stak]

I agree. Downloading music off the internet drives computer sales, high speed internet services, portable music players, car stereos that can play MP3s, CDR & DVDR burners, and blank media sales.

The 10 CDs that I use to buy a year for $140 have been replaced by $40 a month internet service, a $1500 3 year computer replacment cycle, spindles of CDR, and a $600 Pioneer car stereo to listen to my MP3 collection.

I think in the future music will be given away to drive sales of more expensive products. Just like TV shows. Companies give the content away but you still have to buy a $300 box to view it.

Re:So where's the 'Killer App'?

[Rick the Red]

There's a problem with predicting the future -- it's almost impossible. We won't know the next "killer app" until it bites us on the butt.

My buddies and I used to try and guess the next "killer car" -- the Corvair was our benchmark. It was cheap and available and then suddenly it was rare, expensive, and desireable. The question was what car to buy today that would be worth more tomorrow. So far we're batting zero on that one. The Datsun 240Z and Mazda RX-7 looked promising, but they made so damn many of them that they never became rare. In hindsite I'd have to say we'll never see another Corvair. We were trying to use history to predict the future, but the future is always somehow different in some key way. I think Mr. O'Reilly is making the same mistake.