Taking The Videogame Market To The Next Level

Thanks to EvilAvatar for pointing out this article about the rise in popularity of games over at Creative Planet's Videography site. Amidst interesting figures about the ascent of games compared to movies, the author points out that, in 2001, the IDSA was expecting almost 17 billion dollars in videogame sales for 2003, when the total is unlikely to be anywhere near that. Is the games industry over-reaching, or are heady movie-surpassing revenue goals in sight?

Comments

Possible

[omeglidan]

Games will eventually replace movies, but in a melding of sorts. It will be more like movies that you are a player in.

Re:Possible

[James Lewis]

WRONG. There will always be a place for mediums in which the creator has total control over the way you experience it.

Re:Possible

[Anonymous Coward]

Stupidest post in the world. I guess authored books will have all been replaced by choose your own adventure books.

getting worse

[ddd2k]

Games have completely eaten up the young generation alive. And i'm not talking about me! Its sad to see 10 12 year old kids sitting at the computer all day playing games. I can't tell where its all going to lead to, but not good so far.
This may be a generalization but young kids are getting dumber by the minute.

Re:getting worse

[NiceGeek]

Things haven't changed much. You should have seen how much time my friends and I spent playing games on the Atari 2600 and at the arcades.

Unfair comparisons

[MongoMike]

Comparisons about the games industry catching up to the movie industry in sales are tossed about all the time.

Truth of the matter is that games sales match the box office receipts of movies. But that doesn't take into DVD and VHS sales, account rentals, pay per view, TV showings, etc.

And the games totals include the hardware used to play games (consoles, not PCs).

When you compare apples to apples, there is no comparison. And there likely won't be for quite a few years yet.

Re:Unfair comparisons

[der_joachim]

I do not think that the comparison of video games and other entertainment is very unfair. The article stated that other forms of electronic entertainment are either barely playing even or even declining, while video games are on the rise. IMHO, that is quite an interesting point. Apparently, the game industry is the only form of entertainment, which is actually gaining in popularity. In this time of economic decline, that is no small feat.

der Joachim

Laziness versus EXTREME laziness

[Babbster]

The advantage that movies, television, etc. have is that they are NON-interactive forms of entertainment. Don't look at me like that, I did indeed say it was an advantage.

When the "average" US citizen (I won't pretend to speak for anybody else - I'm reaching as it is) gets home after work, the first thing s/he wants to do is sit down and relax. The best form of entertainment to go along with that is television, since it requires no effort beyond finding the right program.

When going out with others, movies are a good choice because everyone shares the same experience (barring big hairdos, hats or proximity to that jerk with the cell phone) and, like television, the movie comes to you and you need do nothing but watch. This is particularly true with relatively mindless fare that doesn't even require a lot of thought to appreciate - note the recent success of movies based on comic books.

Video games, on the other hand, require some effort to enjoy. Sometimes, they might require the development of a particular gaming skill set (platform jumping, fighting combos, etc.). They are not, therefore, the best choice for relaxation for most people. I enjoy video games quite a lot (and have for years) yet I still have periods where games will stress me out, leaving me far more open to watching television, going to a movie, etc. where I will simply sit down and let the entertainment come to me.

It's my conclusion that movies and television will ALWAYS combine to be more popular forms of entertainment - thus making more money - than video games for the simple fact that they're more conducive to both physical and mental relaxation...Anyone with calluses on their thumbs and broken controllers from being thrown across the room should surely agree. :)

Re:Laziness versus EXTREME laziness

[analog_line]

I've been playing video games since the Intellivision, and I never have ever had actual calluses on my hands from playing. Does this actually happen to people? Am I kicked out of the gamer club 'cause I don't hold a controller that long?

Re:Laziness versus EXTREME laziness

[daigu]

"Last year, U.S. computer- and video-game revenue surpassed domestic box-office receipts, and this year, the game industry is expected to widen that gap with more than $10 billion in sales."

Perhaps you and the original poster missed the memo, but games already make more than domestic movie sales. I'm sourcing this Fast Company article as one of many that state this fact.

Re:Laziness versus EXTREME laziness

[funkmastermike]

I don't know what your gaming habits are but if you're looking for a nice way to relax: RPG's on the console. I'm currently playing Xenosaga. It has a story quite deep and has cutscenes that are quite long ranging from 5-15 minutes and move the game forward nicely. Although the fighting system is lacking in some respects, it's still decent implementation.
btw if you don't mind graphics, try getting Xenogears for the psx. The story rivals any hollywood blockbuster or novel.
btw these games are slightly anime-esque so if you're not into anime then it may turn you off.

Re:Laziness versus EXTREME laziness

[Babbster]

I understand that game sales beat movie box office receipts but that's not surprising at all. A new game will cost $40-50 while watching a new movie in the theater costs $5-12 (depending on location and time of day). Four or more movie tickets would have to be purchased to match the price of one new game, and most people don't go to the movies THAT often anymore. Add into that the fact that the experience of going to a theater and watching a movie is FAR removed from that of playing a video game and the apples/oranges problem becomes more evident.

The comparison of box office receipts and video game sales is a meaningless statistic. It's also why I didn't restrict myself to just talking about movies. Television also generates more revenue every year than movies in the theater but most people don't talk about that anymore because it's self-evident and the reason is obvious - there are always going to be more people sitting at home and watching television than there are going to the movies OR playing video games. My argument was simply that it will continue in that fashion for the forseeable future.

Trying to relate the dollar value of video game sales to their mass market appeal even if you don't compare it to anything is misleading, too. For example, in the past year I've bought 30-40 video games, most for $50 a piece. That means that alone I've generated $1,500 or more in video game sales by myself. I'm clearly in the minority, even among gamers, but it gives you an idea of how few people it takes to build up video game numbers.

Re:Laziness versus EXTREME laziness

[Babbster]

No, you don't get kicked out. You're just smarter than some of us. :)

I will note, though, that my callus isn't huge. It isn't even visible to casual inspection. Just a rough spot in the middle of my thumb. Of course, it'll get bigger when I eventually pick up another game that takes me over for a month or two.

Re:Laziness versus EXTREME laziness

[MMaestro]

'For example, in the past year I've bought 30-40 video games, most for $50 a piece. That means that alone I've generated $1,500 or more in video game sales by myself. I'm clearly in the minority, even among gamers, but it gives you an idea of how few people it takes to build up video game numbers.'

A -minority-?! You hold yourself in low esteem. A short walk to my local EBX on a Tuesday evening after I finish work shows an estimated 5 purchases in under 1 hour. Thats $250 on a weekday, one hour period of time. Don't even get me started on the crowds of people that come in and out when a big game is released, or the EBX down at the mall, which is my area's equivalent of the local arcade.

My friend works at the EBX branch outside of the mall so I ask him, 'what is the average amount of income do you guys make per month?' The answer : Donno, but well over $5,000 per month. (Making a total of over $60,000 a year) Reasoning : A big game will sell about 10 pre-orders and another 10-15 walk-ins within the month, thats over $1,000 for one game. Its up to you to decide whether thats true or not.

Re:Laziness versus EXTREME laziness

[bigman2003]

Just thinking about the basics of business, they must be making more than that.

Now, I must admit that I am not one hundred percent sure, but I am assuming that EBX is the same as Electonics Boutique. Even if this is not the case, a lot of this same information will apply because they are in the same business, and would have similar costs.

This page will give you a good idea of what is going on at Electronics Boutique: (Whoops, I had a link here, but the pages at Yahoo! financials expire so the link was no good. Sorry about that, you can either take my word for it, or do a search on your own their stock symbol is ELBO)

They do over $225 million a quarter. More than double that over the Christmas quarter. But, let's assume we are talking about a non-holiday month here. They had about 1,100 stores last year. So, $225 million divided by 1,100 stores is about $227,00 per quarter. Divide that by three (months), and you get over $75,000.

If you have ever owned a business, you know right away that $5,000 wouldn't even cover the costs of an incense cart at a mall.

Yes, I know your friend said it was over $5,000- but this shows how little most 'underlings' really know about the business they work for.

Bad compare + online games need big investment

[jago25_98]

You can stop any piracy with online potentially but that just means there's less ppl to play with.

Online gaming could be massive but you need big bucks to

- policing/cheater fighting as a never ending battle

- getting the power at YOUR end as much as possible to retain control; needs money.

- ppl in west anti-social stay indoors, so PC Baangs don't work

Cure any of these and you'd be the thing Gamespy is too aimless to be.

Same story, ppl with money are careful withthier money :) (and why not eh?)