Chinese Moon Base by 2012 - or 2006?

apsmith writes "Former congressman and House Science chairman Robert S. Walker has written some rather striking conclusions about Chinese intentions in space over the next few years, based on information received for the recent Commisison on the Future of Aerospace. Walker is convinced the Chinese are going all-out for a permanent settlement on the Moon within 10 years; apparently some closer to the situation in Japan think the first landing will be in only 3-4 years. Meanwhile the Economist says IT people are starting to focus on space as the next high-tech venue. Fortunately, despite NASA's neglect, we do have a few private missions to the Moon in the works."

Comments

Good for them!

[Anonymous Coward]

The russians never pulled this off, but maybe a communist red flag next to the stars and stripes might knock the Americans off their high horse, or at least, wake them up. The Chinese are also willing to accept loss of life in this pursuit, so it wouldn't suprise me if they had something going bt 2010.

I'd just be happy to see Homo Sapiens someplace other than Earth.

Re:Good for them!

[TilJ]

RObert Heinlein, as the character Lazarus Long, said:

"The second best thing about space travel is that the distances involved make war very difficult, usually impractical, and almost always unnecessary. This is probably a loss for most people, since war is our race's most popular diversion, one which gives purpose and color to dull and stupid lives.
But it a great boon to the intelligent man who fights only when he must -- never for sport."

Space wars are too expensive compared to just moving to the next rock.

Re:Good for them!

[the gnat]

However, every single estimate of modern Chinese (People's Republic) technological prowess has been wrong ever since that nation was formed.

Yes, but never underestimate the willingness of the Chinese government to let its citizens die in the service of bragging rights. The technology to do this is now more than 30 years old, not very hard to replicate, and as long as the Chinese are willing to accept considerable loss of life they'll have no problem reaching their goal, however useless the results. (Example: China vastly increased steel production in the 1950s by encouraging "home industry". A great success on paper, but the steel was so poorly made as to be virtually useless. Meanwhile, millions died from famine.)

I view a Chinese moon shot simply as an attempt to demonstrate to the people that their government leads them to great things, and why should they care if they're being oppressed when they're on the moon and the Americans aren't? If nothing else, it'll artificially boost China's aerospace industry and wean them away from dependence on American collaborators like Boeing.

Re:Good for them!

[TamMan2000]

I don't know if you are trolling, or if you really believe that, but...

Open your mind you ignorant twit. Capitalism and communism are both extremes, neither works in it's pure form, and just so you know, the US is FAR from being the most capitalistic nation on the planet, you will find most of those in Asia.

Do you know what condition Russia was in right after the communist revolution? They were a mostly agrarian, poor as hell, big nation. They had the one of (the?) fastest industrializations in history. They went from being little other than a source of men to put into a German meat grinder in WWII (sometimes men were required to share rifles!). to being the only significant military and technology competitor to the US in a decade or two. How the hell is that a failure of communism, also during that time the standard of living of the average Russian citizen was skyrocketing, even though it never got up to what the American one was (America was not hit nearly as hard by WWII), it was growing very fast. Remember that AMERICAN astronauts had to ride a RUSSIAN capsule (developed under communism) back to earth recently, because our shit wasn't working. Also remember that the moon was just about the only space related achievement that we beat them to (first artificial satellite, man in space, orbit of the moon...)

I am an American, I love what my country is supposed to stand for, but there are too many ignorant dumb asses here f***ing it up. I am a patriot, I love my country, but we are not inherently superior, other ways of doing things do work. OPEN YOUR DAMN MIND!

Good! Why do 'we' always have to be first?

[Wonderkid]

While competition is good fun when it comes to sport, it is about time the West, in particular the USA stopped believing that every time another entity tries to do something newer, bigger or better that such a step is looked upon as a threat. China has never attacked a Western nation and is trying to open up - in particular since SARS. So, we should be supporting and encouraging them. We have worked pretty well with the Russians, that has paid off with their help since Columbia. So we have learned that if you corner the fox he will bite, but if you pamper him he will lick.

Better the Chinese than nobody.

[Tackhead]

As a Westerner, I'd prefer that the first lunar colony be American.

As a Westerner who sadly recognizes the fact that his society has abandoned space exploration and colonization, I'm more than happy for the Chinese lunar colonists. At least some members of homo sapiens will get to leave the rock.

But as a Westerner who's read Heinlein, I'm pretty sure that sooner or later, those guys are going to end up more free and more happy than their government could ever imagine possible, even in its worst nightmares.

You go, Chinese guys. More power to ya.

Heinlein was a starry-eyed optimist to think it could ever happen on Earth, but he had a valid point on Luna - any resource-rich, low-population, but otherwise harsh environment practically necessitates the development of certain cultural norms.

National prestige

[maddogsparky]

The Chinese want to go for the same reason as the US--it shows the rest of the world what their country is capable of. Going to the moon might not seem to be such a big deal anymore to the average American, but you have to remember that the _only_ people to walk on the moon have been Americans.

To the rest of the world, this is just one more triumph of the United States that nobody else has caught up to after 35 YEARS! The second country to land on the moon would still look big in the eyes of the rest of the world, and more-so if they build a moon base (something not even the USA has done).

On a different note, I'm going back to school for aerospace engineering. When touring the department, I found that they are having record enrollment in both their graduate and undergraduate programs. Kinda make's one wonder how many of them (like me) are switching from the computer industry...

Guys, perspective!!

[Markvs]

This is a nation which still hasn't launched a person into space, let alone have the capacity to go to the moon soon. At the time of the Apollo missions, the US was spending 1% (http://members.aol.com/dsportree/VH04.htm) of the GNP on NASA. The Soviets were probably spending about the same amount of dough. That's was 6 billion in 1967 dollars, or about 32 billion dollars today. Can China afford this? I'm dubious, especially given the current world economy.

Tack on the expenses both nations had (US with Mercury & Gemini, USSR with the various Vostok missions), and the experience China will have to gain... I'd wager on a 2012 landing and 2020 at best for a permanent base. It will take many heavy-lifting flights to get stuff to the moon, and just one disaster to set back the whole timeframe.

Further, the natural Chinese economic advantage (lots of cheap labor), is of little value in the aerospace realm. Sure, you can have folks using picks and shovels on a dam along side modern construction equipment. But on a Saturn V/N-1 type rocket? Not likely.

Can they do it? Sure. So could ESA, Japan and probably a half dozen other nations like Australia, Brazil or India. Will they? Probably, they want the bragging rights. But by 2006? No way.

Reasons to go to the Moon

[notestein]

There are only a few reasons to go to the Moon that I can see.

1. Scientific. These are pretty weak. Some nice radio and optical telescopes could be set up on the dark side. However, the next Space Telescope will be placed at Lagrange Point 2. That's pretty clean from Earthly interference and cheaper than the Moon. Exploration? Really, what are we going to find that will be useful that can not be done robotically?

2. Commercial. The solar cell idea is just stupid. Stick with Nuclear here on earth. Cheap, clean, and practically infinite. Maybe, someday, fusion will displace it. If so, H3 mining might be a winner for being on the Moon. I'm sure that will drive the Moon environmentalists up a tree. (hee hee). I can just see the protestors and signs now, "Stop Strip Mining the Moon! It's destroying the view from the earth for Spotted Owls." If we could ever make the per pound (screw you metric guys) cost to high orbit cheap enough... vacations would be a good reason to put up a colony. Just look at Vegas and Cancun. There's some serious scratch.

3. Political. That's why we (the US) went the first time. That's what the Chinese are up too. The US may have to do it just to keep the Chinese from being the only ones there. National pride can be an odd thing.

But the biggest political reason will be to get the fuck off Earth. That may be a while. Or a well funded cult may be the first to go. Too bad the Hal Bop guys are gone. It's easier to catch a lift on a Comet from the low gee of the Moon.

Re:Let's Help Them Out

[bjschrock]

Space exploration should no longer exist as a competitive sport. Write your representatives and let them know that you support US cooperation with China in space.
A cooperative approach would be nice, but look what competition has gotten us so far: going from the first man-made satellite to walking on the moon in 12 years, with the first powered flight only about 50 years before that. It's been over 30 years since we've been to the moon, isn't it time we go back?

Re:The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress

[Imperator]

Democracy cannot fight gravity, nor stop a 1/2km bolder travelling at Mach 33 coming down through the atmosphere.

Nor can democracy stop a thousand nuclear warheads. Come on, why would any nation with the technology to go to the moon and hurl rocks at us not just use nuclear weapons instead? They surely provide far more bang for the buck.

And what could the moon possibly do for an expansionist nation? Do you have any idea how much it costs to send 1kg to the moon? In human history, expansion has always been driven by quest for resources--whether those resources are wealth (Spain), land (America), natural resources (Japan), or whatever else. But how could the moon provide these things more efficiently than underutilized parts of Earth? I tell you what, it would be a hell of a lot cheaper for the Chinese to send people to shiver in Antarctica than on the moon, and they'd probably get more out of it.

No, we have nothing to fear from a Chinese base on the moon. Until we have the technology to make transport to and from the moon cheap, it's a useless pile of rock.

Big picture

[Mattygfunk1]

Why did America strive to reach the moon, but for the ability to claim that they alone had made it.

I always considered the moon landing an achievement for the entire human race.

Acknowledged that Americans had the technology, supplied the funding, and risked their people in pursuit of the world-wide dream of getting to the moon.

Americans have been too the moon, but much more importantly humans have been to the moon.

Dragon Action Figures

Re:The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress

[Arker]

- we have yet to build a magnetic rail launcher of anything like the capabilities described in the book here on Earth, let alone the moon, and

For lack of reason, not for lack of ability.

- we still have Mutual Assured Destruction. You may not like the doctrine, but in the end it means that even if the Chinese will soon have a novel way to annihilate us from their moon base, the balance of power remains the same.

I think you're missing the point. A chinese base with an accellerator and a big pile of rocks wouldn't void MAD, far from it, it would keep it alive. US anti-ballistic missile technology may well be able to nullify their ICBMs soon, and the thought does NOT sit well with them, nor should we expect it to. Particularly given the recent shift of US policy from quiet imperialism to very very loud blatant imperialism.

On the other hand, interceptor missiles are pretty useless against the types of projectiles in this scenario, at the very least it's a MUCH harder job, to really nullify them you'd have to knock the heat shielding off very early in the trajectory, and if they're big enough even that wouldn't work. Deflecting them a touch isn't going to make things much better either. So this sort of capability could be what keeps MAD alive for the rest of the century, or at least a few crucial decades...

Re:Will a Sino-Lunar base be our Sputnik?

[Bendy Chief]

http://www.indianexpress.com/full_story.php?conten t_id=24856

The American army is not invincible. Bush is pouring money down the toilet like it was going out of fashion. Look up the cost of each American cruise missile vs. the cost of Iraqi buildings. Look up the news item regarding how the Pentagon misplaced a trillion dollars. Look at the U.S. economy.

A person I know works with a major U.S. military contractor, on a vehicle project, in the 20 ton range. These things have huge pneumatic shocks; almost no natural force on Earth can touch 'em. And just the other day, they had to scrap a $2,000,000 vehicle because some asshole American grunts were joyriding the fucking thing off a cliff, for kicks. The troopers who pulled this stunt got off scot-free.

America is going to go down, hard, if they don't shape up. Their commanders don't understand cost-effective warfare. The Roman Empire fell because it alienated its satellite states, misused the legions, and because its leaders were mad with power and decadence. It can happen again.

Xenophobia...

[Dr. Evil]

Hmm... interesting theory. So you're saying that the moon is a means for a Chineese attack on the U.S.?

You do realize that the Pacific ocean is easier to traverse than the distance between the earth and the moon?

You do also realize that the U.S. has demonstrated the effectiveness of nuclear submarines as a "last strike" deterrant?

Do you think it is possible that rather than nuking the U.S., the Chineese goverment wants to use this for genuine research, some nationalist bragging rights and as an asset to build or develop international relations?

Re:Xenophobia...

[mark2003]

Here's the next day's headline: China declares it will annex Taiwan. Reminds U.S. of its lunar mass driver capability and warns U.S. not to interfere in issues of Chinese sovereignty

Can I rephrase this?

Here's the next day's headline: The US declares it will restructure Iraq's government. Reminds Iran/Syria of its military capability and warns Iran/Syria not to interfere in issues of Iraq sovereignty.

Turning the tables on the world's bully...

[mark2003]

All China has to do is be able to drop rocks on American cities. The threat will make us dance with them.

How is your concern any diferent to that of anyone else in the world whilst there is the current American administration with a view that the US can do what it wants, when it wants, to whomever it wants through the threat of military force?

Shouldn't we all be dancing together anyway? What has happened to diplomacy and negotiation in an attempt to improve everybody's lot?

Are you kidding me?

[sweatyboatman]

Okay, USA sent men to the moon way back when. It was basically pointless. We haven't been back to the moon because there's nothing to do there except collect samples and plant flags.

At my Washington office a few weeks ago, I met with a visiting Japanese parliamentarian who specializes in science and technology issues... In his view, the Chinese would be on the moon within three to four years.

• 
  parliamentarian
  
  1. One who is expert in parliamentary procedures, rules, or debate.
     
  2. A member of a parliament.
     
  3. Parliamentarian A supporter of the Long Parliament during the English Civil War and the Commonwealth; a Roundhead.

this is the only evidence he offers that China is even thinking of going to the moon. some random Chinese dude? well, I'm convinced, let's start a space race.

Bob Walker man must be a real patriot to be so concerned about the plight of America's space prestige. Who is this great thinker? oh wait... Bob Walker is a corporate lobbyist. For who? For these guys. Nice list of clientelle. I wonder if any of those people would benefit from increased public paranoia about a foreign space program?

-sweatyb

Thank god for the chinese

[visionsofmcskill]

I give them about 3 years before they've either made good on their threats and actualy seem to be going after this goal, or are shown to have simply issued another boast.

If in 3 years they have indeed begun the initiative to colonize the moon, you can be certain the US will get off it's collective ass and either infuse NASA with massive amounts of bucks and initiative, or simply kill them and replace them with a new goverment entity to acomplish the same goal.

there are two reasons for this.. A: if china sets up a weapons base on the moon we would be at a serious disadvantage the moment they develop anti-ICBM type defenses. Although this isnt near to happening now... it is an inevitability as far as the progression of tech in nearly all major societies.

The second reason... The US has one of the greatest attitudes possesed by man. Out right jealousy. If they do it, then we damn well WILL do it too AND better. Who cares about the expense... it's important simply because it is.

The reason NASA is grounded right now ISNT because they fucked up.... it's cause they fucked up and dont have much of a purpose thats beneficial to the miltary/social/economical intrests of the US corporations or populace. Put china upstairs.... and you can garentee our space program will geta shot in the arm well beyond anything we could imagine about the star wars project or otherwise.

nothing like good old economic/political rivalry to get the inovation engines running.