Chinese Moon Base by 2012 - or 2006?

apsmith writes "Former congressman and House Science chairman Robert S. Walker has written some rather striking conclusions about Chinese intentions in space over the next few years, based on information received for the recent Commisison on the Future of Aerospace. Walker is convinced the Chinese are going all-out for a permanent settlement on the Moon within 10 years; apparently some closer to the situation in Japan think the first landing will be in only 3-4 years. Meanwhile the Economist says IT people are starting to focus on space as the next high-tech venue. Fortunately, despite NASA's neglect, we do have a few private missions to the Moon in the works."

Comments

Reasons to go to the Moon

[notestein]

There are only a few reasons to go to the Moon that I can see.

1. Scientific. These are pretty weak. Some nice radio and optical telescopes could be set up on the dark side. However, the next Space Telescope will be placed at Lagrange Point 2. That's pretty clean from Earthly interference and cheaper than the Moon. Exploration? Really, what are we going to find that will be useful that can not be done robotically?

2. Commercial. The solar cell idea is just stupid. Stick with Nuclear here on earth. Cheap, clean, and practically infinite. Maybe, someday, fusion will displace it. If so, H3 mining might be a winner for being on the Moon. I'm sure that will drive the Moon environmentalists up a tree. (hee hee). I can just see the protestors and signs now, "Stop Strip Mining the Moon! It's destroying the view from the earth for Spotted Owls." If we could ever make the per pound (screw you metric guys) cost to high orbit cheap enough... vacations would be a good reason to put up a colony. Just look at Vegas and Cancun. There's some serious scratch.

3. Political. That's why we (the US) went the first time. That's what the Chinese are up too. The US may have to do it just to keep the Chinese from being the only ones there. National pride can be an odd thing.

But the biggest political reason will be to get the fuck off Earth. That may be a while. Or a well funded cult may be the first to go. Too bad the Hal Bop guys are gone. It's easier to catch a lift on a Comet from the low gee of the Moon.

Re:The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress

[Imperator]

Democracy cannot fight gravity, nor stop a 1/2km bolder travelling at Mach 33 coming down through the atmosphere.

Nor can democracy stop a thousand nuclear warheads. Come on, why would any nation with the technology to go to the moon and hurl rocks at us not just use nuclear weapons instead? They surely provide far more bang for the buck.

And what could the moon possibly do for an expansionist nation? Do you have any idea how much it costs to send 1kg to the moon? In human history, expansion has always been driven by quest for resources--whether those resources are wealth (Spain), land (America), natural resources (Japan), or whatever else. But how could the moon provide these things more efficiently than underutilized parts of Earth? I tell you what, it would be a hell of a lot cheaper for the Chinese to send people to shiver in Antarctica than on the moon, and they'd probably get more out of it.

No, we have nothing to fear from a Chinese base on the moon. Until we have the technology to make transport to and from the moon cheap, it's a useless pile of rock.