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Next Nintendo Console In Spring 2005?
Thanks to an anonymous reader for pointing to an IGN story claiming that the Gamecube's successor will launch as early as Spring 2005. This date, sourced from anonymous development houses, seems earlier than expected, and IGN mentions that "..asked if they had received any official documentation for the machine, all software houses contacted said no." But equally, any console getting a head start on the next generation will have a significant advantage, and as IGN suggest, "Nintendo has repeatedly stated that it would not be the last hardware manufacturer out of the gates with its next console."
This strategy didn't necessarily work for Sega with the Dreamcast. It came out first, and had the edge over the PS2 in certain aspects, yet it still lost.
That, IMO, is one of the main reasons that PS2 won out over the Dreamcast.
It all comes down to public bias in the end. Of course I have no proof to back this up other than strict observation, but I think one can agree from a similar perspective.
Sega started getting a bad wrap with the 32x. Similarly poor decisions on future systems (SegaCD, Saturn, etc.) caused a lot of the gaming public to lose faith. I was working in a game retail outlet when the Dreamcast was finally released, way ahead of everyone else and with a great library of launch titles. When confronted with the news of a new Sega machine, no matter how amazing, the majority of the consumers generally replied with distaste, usually making remarks about the failed (US)Saturn and other past Sega hardware.
Likewise, the N64 could have marked the begining of the end for Nintendo's set top consoles. With a poor library of games and the beginning of horrid developer relations, many lost faith with the big N for their lack of judgment. Now, despite the few beneficial qualities of the GC (great first party titles, excelent hardware engineering, etc.), I hear many people making statemets about Nintendo that are very similar to the gripes that most held with Sega prior to the fall of the DC.
So while Nintendos poor decisions add to their woes, it only seems to take one slip up and public bias will take a company to it's grave. This is interestingly something specific to the game industry due to the entrenched fan-base, but that's a whole other topic.
Nintendo has always been anal retentive about how they allow third parties to make software for their consoles. They usually come with much higher royalty costs, which is because their non-standard format choices for the media allows them to charge whatever they wish. Console companies need to wake up and get with the program.
The formula for success is as follows:
1) Set the bar to entry for releasing games with the official logo low enough to make a small-to-decent profit on each title.
2) Allow anyone to be an official developer, if they can afford the purchasing of the official developmental hardware units.
3) Allow anyone to be an unofficial developer using a home-development kit similar to the "Yaroze" program.
4) Offer several different approaches to coding for the platform. Similar to Katana vs Windows CE approach for Dreamcast.
Between all these things you will get a ton of developer mindshare and just about anyone with the cash to spend on the hardware development units can at least try to make games for it. If they have something worthy of selling in stores, then the low barrier to entry should allow most (as in, even smaller) publishers to profit on titles (and therefore be interested in funding development).