Concern Over Dropping Japanese Console Sales
Thanks to an anonymous reader for pointing to a Yahoo/Reuters Japan article discussing worrying issues for Japanese console and software makers. The article states that "..sales of family game machines in fiscal 2002 were 8.76 million units, down about 20% from fiscal 2001, when sales jumped 30% ahead of the year before." It also notes that "per-title sales [for Playstation 2 software in 2002] dropped 25% to around 63,000", even as the total volume increased to almost 30 million units. The article postulated this is because "..the market is turning from one of growth, to one.. where manufacturers compete with each other to get a bigger share." Possible solutions suggested include "producing items that can link to audiovisual equipment, or.. cultivating markets overseas."
Release some of all the cool stuff in Europe and USA - Why is it, that we get stuff ½ - 1½ year after its released in Japan ??
japans economy is in in the toilet no wonder the sales of consoles is down. That and there market has been pretty much flooded with the dang things.
The article fails the burden of proof to its thesis. In order to show decline, you must show a simultaneous drop in: console sales, console titles. With the dropping price of PCs, you must also include PC's as a console and count game software as console titles.
If you can show a consistent drop in all those areas, then yes, the thesis is upheld. Even better, if you multiply console sales drops by their previous market share, you can take a weighted average and pretty closely estimate that drop.
The article fails to do this. I'm not saying the article is wrong, but what happened to responsible journalism? Oh, yeah. FOX!
Let x = sales in 2000
if sales went up 30% in 2001, then...
x + 0.3x = 1.3x = sales in 2001
and if sales went down 20% this year, then...
1.3x - 0.2*(1.3x) = 1.04x = sales in 2002
therefore, that means sales over all went up, since 1.04x > x, 4% since 2000. Or I could be crazy.
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