Concern Over Dropping Japanese Console Sales
Thanks to an anonymous reader for pointing to a Yahoo/Reuters Japan article discussing worrying issues for Japanese console and software makers. The article states that "..sales of family game machines in fiscal 2002 were 8.76 million units, down about 20% from fiscal 2001, when sales jumped 30% ahead of the year before." It also notes that "per-title sales [for Playstation 2 software in 2002] dropped 25% to around 63,000", even as the total volume increased to almost 30 million units. The article postulated this is because "..the market is turning from one of growth, to one.. where manufacturers compete with each other to get a bigger share." Possible solutions suggested include "producing items that can link to audiovisual equipment, or.. cultivating markets overseas."
The problem is obviously piracy. The games market was doing fine, but now there's this Interweb thing that people use to steal stuff. Ban fibre-optics!
Release some of all the cool stuff in Europe and USA - Why is it, that we get stuff ½ - 1½ year after its released in Japan ??
japans economy is in in the toilet no wonder the sales of consoles is down. That and there market has been pretty much flooded with the dang things.
Consoles continue to sell units up until the end of their product cycles, but the large majority of existing installed base is not buying games at the same rate that they were in the past. For the current PS2 owner, the number of worthwhile NEW titles is waning.
The article fails the burden of proof to its thesis. In order to show decline, you must show a simultaneous drop in: console sales, console titles. With the dropping price of PCs, you must also include PC's as a console and count game software as console titles.
If you can show a consistent drop in all those areas, then yes, the thesis is upheld. Even better, if you multiply console sales drops by their previous market share, you can take a weighted average and pretty closely estimate that drop.
The article fails to do this. I'm not saying the article is wrong, but what happened to responsible journalism? Oh, yeah. FOX!
Let x = sales in 2000
if sales went up 30% in 2001, then...
x + 0.3x = 1.3x = sales in 2001
and if sales went down 20% this year, then...
1.3x - 0.2*(1.3x) = 1.04x = sales in 2002
therefore, that means sales over all went up, since 1.04x > x, 4% since 2000. Or I could be crazy.
The cancel button is your friend. Do not hesitate to use it.
It's not by choice - it's what the market demands over there.
Electronics cost 2-3x what they cost here and you can ONLY buy the latest and greatest high end equipment, because THAT'S ALL THERE IS. This isn't because the Japanese consciously have said "We only want new stuff!" but rather, the companies have dictated "We only sell you new stuff."
Games cost $80-$100. They've always cost $80-$100. Selling used games/CDs/etc. is considered "Grey market", with many stores closing down due to police pressure (only to move down the street and re-open.)
The market in Japan is screwed up. Food prices arecompletely controlled by the farmers in Japan. You can't get non-Japanese rice in Japan - even non-white varieties like bhasmati, because it's too cheap.
My last company had to TRIPLE the price of its servers for Japan because the resellers told them $1000 would make people think that it was a bad product, but that for $3000, they'd think it was a great product. I don't quite understand how we got away with selling half the hardware at 3x the price of a normal PC, but that didn't stop Japan from becoming one of our largest markets...