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The Near-Term Future Of Open Source Desktops

securitas writes "eWEEK has two related articles on the growth of open source software. The first article is about the growth of desktop Linux, featuring Lotus and the Open Source Applications Foundation (OSAF) founder Mitch Kapor, who says (among other things) that call centers will be where the next wave of growth for desktop Linux happens and that 10 percent of global desktops will be Linux in a few years. He bases his statements on a report by Eazel and GNOME Foundation co-founder Bart Decrem entitled 'Desktop Linux Technology and Market Overview' (PDF) mentioned last week. The second story is about open source software growth in the government sector where government agencies like the U.S. Census Bureau have embraced OS software for projects like the State and County QuickFacts site. Based on Perl, Apache, MySQL and Linux, the site gets 200,000 page views a day."

29 of 243 comments (clear)

  1. Linux is cheap by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Call centers just need something for their monkeys to use that works, and the cheaper, the better. Linux fits that nicely. Doesn't need to play the newest games, or run the newest Windows software, just deal with callers.

    1. Re:Linux is cheap by iabervon · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Actually, having a machine that *isn't* a desktop is much better. What you want is an interface specialized to the task, without any of the distractions. Using a desktop operating system for a call center (or a point-of-sale terminal, or a number of similar applications) is like trying to dial a telephone with a GUI (go to File, then "Make call...", then click on the digits, click Okay...). Linux is ideal for this situation, because you can provide only a custom interface on the front end, and manage the machines entirely remotely.

  2. My two cents...... by 56ker · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Once Linux is the main OS sold with new computers and Windows is the "optional extra" - then I'll regard it as a success. At the moment the market share of Microsoft means that most people know of one OS - Windows - and that is what they ask for with new computers....

    1. Re:My two cents...... by aardvarkjoe · · Score: 5, Funny

      Until Linus is taken to court for maintaining an illegal monopoly and the judge threatens to cut him in half in order to foster more competition in the OS marker, I won't consider Linux a success.

      --

      How can we continue to believe in a just universe and freedom to eat crackers if we have no ale?
    2. Re:My two cents...... by bsharma · · Score: 3, Informative

      In San Diego, a major whitebox vendor (Microtron 2000) offers Lindows as the 'default' OS (at no 'cost'). Many others including Fry's, Walmart offer a bare machine or free Linux/Lindows. Agreed your benchmark is a while away, but things are changing rather fast. Notice that MS no longer offers stock options - they are recognizing that free lunch days are over. They are also increasingly doing more of their development offshore - sign that they want to save money above all else. Don't be surprised if MS becomes a RCA, US Steel or Lucent 10 years from now.

  3. yes by lurgyman · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Another place that could use this might be places like public libraries, where pretty much all you need is a working browser. Plus, a place like that could give some nice exposure to Linux.

    1. Re:yes by 56ker · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Here the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation donate computers (with yes Windows) to at least one local library. I think the Microsoft way is - get people used to Windows - in school, college & university - then people know of no other OS - let alone its benefits or how to use it. It's a shame really that the OS market has ended up in this mono-culture. I blame it partly on the computer illiteracy of managers. Often they're the ones who have to authorise IT purchases - and yet they often know next to nothing about what they're buying.

  4. The corner of the revolution ... by BillsPetMonkey · · Score: 3, Insightful

    and that 10 percent of global desktops will be Linux in a few years.

    In a few years. We know the revolution is just round the corner. But how many corners do we have to revolve around?

    --
    "It's not your information. It's information about you" - John Ford, Vice President, Equifax
    1. Re:The corner of the revolution ... by Hortensia+Patel · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Is this boiled-frog syndrome?

      Perversely, I think maybe we're getting so used to the gradual flow of success stories that we're losing sight of just how far Linux has come in the last few years. Five years ago, the notion that governments and corporations would be rolling out Linux desktop deployments numbering into five figures would have been comical to even the most rabid zealot. Now it's almost commonplace. The rate of acceptance has been phenomenal. Five years from now I'd certainly expect OSS OSes to make up more than 10% of worldwide installs, and at that point it's a done deal - the operating system will be a commodity, and the closed-source vendors will be either giving their OS away to support app or service revenue, or actually having to work for a living.

  5. When will MySQL Grow up? by simul · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Enterprise features like layered transactions, replication, stored procs, load balancing, etc. are available using Postgres...but you can't find developers and cheap hosters that run Postgres anymore. Was it just the name "MySQL" that made it popular?

  6. LINUX, Windows, UNIX, OS/2 it Doesn't Matter. by banal+avenger · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Just as long as my internet works, I don't care. Where I work, we use LINUX, Windows, and Mac OS X (the latter being used only on my machine). There is no liberation of the masses for the masses. They don't care. Two of us are LINUX fans, and the other 10 use windows because they just want to check their email. They don't want to ever touch anything in the command line, and I can't wholly blame them.

    LINUX makes sense for the corporate IT infrastructure. The UNIX of old is expensive, and Windows is buggy and (also) expensive. As long as people can get sub-$600 PCs running Windows ME, they will buy them because they simply don't care. And their job and their life has nothing to do with computers other than that everything happens to need computers today. The end all is "If ain't broke, don't fix it." My computer checks my email. And lets me read slashdot.

  7. Depends by papasui · · Score: 4, Insightful

    on what the call center does. I'm sure it would work fine for dealing with customer accounts. However, many call centers are software support. It wouldn't make a lot of sense to put linux on a machine when you are supporting Windows or a Windows application. Credit card, insurance, and similiar industries probably could move to linux easily with the exception of required office applications. OpenOffice might be able to fill in that role though, and it would significantly reduce overall cost.

  8. Except for today... by phraktyl · · Score: 3, Interesting
    Based on Perl, Apache, MySQL and Linux, the site gets 200,000 page views a day.

    Except for today, when we line it up for a good Slashdotting.

    To be more on topic, I wonder how much of this is chosen by the PHBs ("I've heard a lot about this Linux, maybe we should use it for this next big project.") and how much is chosen by the admins without PHB approval ("Well, we need this project up on a server, and we have this old PII-400 laying around, let's just throw Linux on it, fire up Apache and mod_perl and then take an early lunch."). I know that when I was in the Air Force, I saw the latter happen much more often than the former.

    --
    Karma: Marginal (mostly due to the border around the website)
  9. 10% of the desktop!? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

    What is this, some kind of new slimline case model?

  10. Same old discussion... by henriksh · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Ok, Windows vs. GNU/Linux on the desktop is no new discussion, but here goes...:

    I think that GNU/Linux in many ways are equal to or better than MS Windows considering apps. A recent GNOME or KDE provides a great working environment with good browsers, email apps, etc. etc.

    A problem for GNU/Linux _from a joe user standpoint_ is the inherent security and multi-user nature of UNIX-like OS's. Windows has a history of insecurity, but that also means no hassle with passwords and the like.

    This "hassle" and inherent security are of course Right Things, but Joe User just thinks it's annoying.

    1. Re:Same old discussion... by pavera · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Windows XP by default comes with no user passwords and a simple click to log in with multiple users, and if there is only 1 user default is no login, it simply goes straight to the desktop. OS X is exactly the same. Granted most computer users who have a computer at work running win2k or XP will have a log in, but the default setting in XP and OS X is to act as if there are no users and no passwords. These things can be turned on in Linux, but you have to know where to go/what to do, joe user doesn't like having to log in.

    2. Re:Same old discussion... by tabdelgawad · · Score: 3, Interesting

      As the AC reply above notes, secure multi-user environments are becoming the norm on desktops, so that can't be the barrier to Linux adoption.

      I upgrade hardware and reinstall/update OSs for friends all the time, and I always ask myself whether I could honestly recommend Linux for their desktops. At this point in time, I can't. And there's one major reason: the lack of a distribution-independent and *easy* (read GUI) method of installing and updating third party software. There are other reasons (immature GUIs for some distros and possible lack of some apps and hardware drivers) but this is the big one IMO.

      Yes, I'm aware of the wonders of apt-get and synaptic and I know many distributions have very easy ways of keeping your core system current, but that's not really the issue. Central repositories for OS updates make sense, but expecting your distro to 'repackage' every piece of third-party software out there is extremely inefficient (and impossible anyway!).

      Given the way Linux is developed and the whole idea of 'dependencies', I don't really know what a soultion to this problem would look like. Maybe one or two distros will dominate all the others and allow third-party developers to standardize on them, but of course you'd lose the diversity or bazaar-style develpoment which is one of Linux's strengths. If anyone else has ideas, or knows what direction Linux developers are taking on this, I'd be curious to know ...

      --
      Imposing Libertarian views on everyone online since 1992.
    3. Re:Same old discussion... by zenyu · · Score: 3, Interesting

      These things can be turned on in Linux, but you have to know where to go/what to do, joe user doesn't like having to log in.

      Mandrake asks you if you want this during the install.

      A novice Linux user (but long time programmer) asked me if I had Mandrake install disks last week, he wasn't happy with RedHat 9.0 and our sysAdmin had told him to ask me about Mandrake. I stopped by his office later in the week because he hadn't come back to me with questions, which is unusual with someone's first install, especially on a laptop. He simply hadn't had any problems.

      Not that it's completely ready, I gave the same Mandrake CD's to a business person six months ago and got like 10 e-mails mostly about games and OpenOffice. He had even switched to OpenOffice on Windows earlier, but there are things like fonts and e-mail integration that are different. I learned that OpenOffice doesn't use fontconfig yet.. Mandrake has a font importer that handles non-standard applications, but if you don't use that tool you can end up with fonts that are only present in a subset of your applications, this is very confusing to non-technical people. (Many things that we take for granted are very confusing to the non-technical, try explaining the difference between a client and server to a non-technical person.) Strangely the business guy wanted the login screen because he saw security as the major reason for switching, I had told him that anyone with physical access could get to his data anyway, but he still wanted the login.

  11. The war will not be won in the US of A by drinkypoo · · Score: 5, Interesting
    Where Windows is so heavily entrenched. It will be won (if it is won) in developing countries which currently have few computers. As computers get cheaper - It's only a matter of time before a machine capable of doing decent websurfing and whatnot hits US$50 - they will become more popular in poorer nations, and those people won't want to pay more for a windows license than they are paying for a computer.

    It would be great to get a serious effort to send "old" (meaning 200MHz and up) computers to third world countries, loaded with open source operating systems. Macs, PCs, whatever. The problem is that to send them all there would cost more than to just buy new ones from a local manufacturing plant :P Maybe we could load up a few shipping containers, weld 'em shut, and just drop them in the ocean. The countries where they wash up get the computers.

    --
    "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  12. Call Centers.. by mumblestheclown · · Score: 5, Insightful
    Why Call centers?
    • In case you missed it, the call center market is past its prime. there is excess capacity from ireland to india to irkutsk.
    • As a result, call centers are forced to compete on price. Linux desktops help this? Maybe, maybe not. Yes for the largest call center (2000+ppl) places where software licence compliance will actually be checked. Less likely for smaller places where the cost of software is effectively moot.
    • While a few manufacturers of desktop "suite" applications for call centers exist, many places just cobble stuff together on their own. this is doable in linux or on windows or whatever. For that reason, call centers are a good place for linux/desktops - the primary application more or less exists in a vaccuum. but call centers are hardly indicative of wider linux desktop use. Home/general business use is far diferent.
    1. Re:Call Centers.. by dagnabit · · Score: 3, Informative

      And this is one of the prime targets for Sun's "Mad Hatter" Linux-on-"white box"-PC product due Any Day Now(tm) (or is it Real Soon Now(tm)?). All the goodness you need: RedHat 9, Gnome, StarOffice, Evolution, GAIM, etc.

      Sun will maintain ownership of the hardware (5u|\| 0w|\|z J00 d00d!), and customers will pay a per-seat monthly/ quarterly/ whatever fee. Something breaks, field service will just yank the box and drop in a new one, run the kickstart script to build the machine to latest versions from a backend server. I think there was some talk of a "self sparing" option so that the company could keep a couple of "idle" boxes on the network to drop one in themselves if needed.

  13. Call Centres without Office by ctve · · Score: 3, Interesting
    Some call centres don't even have office.

    One that I helped set up had a series of applications talking to a printing package which central templates had been defined in.

    People just entered the action on a screen, and the server sent a request to the printing package which printed a letter on a central printer.

    All the applications ran through a browser. That company could move the call centre desktops to Linux very easily.

  14. Kinda sad that Linux is the only other option by Junks+Jerzey · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Note: I like Linux, and I have a dual boot Linux/Windows machine at home. I've used UNIX, Linux, and Windows professionally (old school MacOS, too).

    Windows has its share of troubles. The idealistic among us don't like Microsoft's market domination. The security-minded don't like the multitude of holes. But take both of those out of the picture, and you end up with a simple question: Is the Linux desktop experience, including applications, really significantly better than Windows in some quantifiable ways? In my personal experience, the OSS desktop environment developers have been playing a game of catch up with Microsoft. Sure, Microsoft didn't invent the GUI. We all know that. But it's not like Linux + KDE|GNOME is so much stunningly better than Windows that there's a reason to jump ship to it. At the same time, realize that there are many, many happy Windows users *and* developers. The anti-Microsoft angst is largely from a certain crowd. The end result is that this issue is largely a muddle. If you paint it to be a clear-cut battle, then it's not representative of reality.

    Choice is good, yes, but realize that this choice already exists. Is beating Microsoft and getting everyone to use the Linux kernel a win for choice?

  15. I love news like this by geekd · · Score: 3, Funny

    Based on Perl, Apache, MySQL and Linux...

    These are exactly where my job experience is. If only every website would standardize on this, I'd be employed forever. :-)

  16. Going about this in the wrong way I think.... by KevinJoubert · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Sometimes I think that everyone is going about this in the wrong way. Yes... the Linux desktop needs some work before my 70-year-old Aunt can use it... but the tools are all there. Its not like the desktop WON"T do what she wants, she just doesn't know how to make it work.

    For Linux to succeed on the desktop, I think two things need to happen... somebody like HP, IBM, or Dell needs to step up and sell systems that are pre-configured so that people don't have to mess with them. Just turn them on and away they go.

    Secondly, its the DOCUMENTS. The world needs to start using something other than .WMV for video, .PPT for presentations and .DOC for documents.
    The only reason MS has a stranglehold on the desktop is because people have been convinced they need to use those formats. Everytime I turn around I see a website or some CD that is forcing people to use these documents.

    The next time you are creating a document or file format.... even if its using Windows... force yourself to use .MPEG or .HTML. I create presentations in .PPT all the time (crossover office)... but I save them as .HTML. Same goes for just about any other office document.

    If anyone sends me a proprietary document format, I ask them to please re-save it in a format that I can use and send it again. Nobody has ever refused yet.

    Just a thought,

    -Kevin

    --
    -K.
  17. Desirable? by xant · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Because Windows has gotten worse (XP licensing bullshit) or because Linux has gotten better?

    Honestly, I haven't seen the latter happen, and this is from someone who runs only Linux on his home computer and, when a new game comes out, waits a few months for a Native or Wine-based port.

    From everything I've seen, XP is better than 2K if only it weren't for the licensing bullshit. A strategy to defeat Windows (and this assumes there is a think-tank working to defeat Windows, and I don't think this really exists) would have to involve licensing, and right now Microsoft is vulnerable. Linux is better because it's open, and free. Period. Don't make technical arguments, make licensing arguments.

    Q: "Is Linux better than Windows?"
    A: "Yes, but in ways that you'd have to be a sysadmin to really understand. In other ways, it's worse. There are defintely going to be tradeoffs, and you'll take some time getting on your feet again."

    Q: "Then why should I switch?"
    A: "Because technology freedom is more important than technology, in ways that matter to everyone, not just programmers and not just budget controllers. Everything in your computer should belong to you."

    People are responsive to this kind of argument, but it has to be presented honestly.

    --
    It's rare that you're presented with a knob whose only two positions are Make History and Flee Your Glorious Destiny.
  18. Thin Clients by stiggle · · Score: 3, Informative

    The latest thin clients (with no moving parts) are Linux based.
    The ones I've been playing with are from neoware. Flash based OS and everything either X or Citrix off a central server. This is the sort of thing that call centres are actually using now, along with some fairly large industrial corps like Lockheed Martin (who I have to deal with).

  19. IP Telephony by benjamindees · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Regarding call centers, I've come to the same conclusion over the past few months. Desktop Linux is a great solution.

    What Linux needs as a killer-app in this environment is good VoIP support. By good, I mean cheaper than Windows.

    Specifically, I'm thinking it would be feasible to add software echo-cancellation to some of the sound card drivers or as a separate module. That would easily shave another $50 off the price of a typical call center desktop, and probably more than that with the way people tend to break their $100 headsets.

    Does anyone know if this is possible?

    --
    "I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
  20. 2 more non-geeks using linux on the desktop by __aabvlw4075 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    My dad took me over to his friend's house yesterday, because his friend was unsatisfied with his website. I got hired to redo it from scratch. After discussing how he wanted it, I somehow segued into open source software. My dad was complaining about his old computer and need for more storage space. I mentioned he could get a new computer off walmart.com for only $199. They were both shocked. I looked it up at wamart.com for them, and then the german (my dad's friend) pulled out his credit card and insisted I order one with his card to solve my dad's computer problems. He also wanted me to help him install linux on one of his computers, since he was frustrated he couldn't install windows XP on both (the install CD wouldn't let him). If he likes it he might install it on the other one, too. He kept saying "You can be free from Microsoft Windows??!!"