The IT Market: Cyclical Downturn or New World Order?

An anonymous reader wrote: "CNN.com is running an interesting story on the heels of a Forrester Research report concerning the shift of high tech jobs from the U.S. to places like China, India, and Russia for cheaper labor and got me thinking about the nature of the current downtrend in programmer demand in the U.S (as opposed to the "morality" of such a shift). While I'm sure the causes for this downtrend are variable, the more important question in my mind is this -- Is software guru Bruce Eckel correct in saying that the current downturn represents a temporary blip in the business cycle as jobs are shifted from large and medium companies to smaller companies, or are Andy Hunt and Dave Thomas correct in recognizing this as a new reality. Personally I tend to agree with Hunt and Thomas's view (which is not completely opposed to Bruce's opinion, btw) and I also agree with their viewpoint that protectionist policies like H1B quotas and tariffs won't work to change anything for the better. So what do you think? Is this just another business cycle or is this a New World Order in IT?"

Comments

Market adjustment

[b-baggins]

The cold, unpleasant truth here, is that 90% of IT isn't worth its salary.

Globalization is the great leveler (assuming free markets). It takes time, but eventually, everyone gets paid what they're actually worth as opposed to what they think they're worth.

The secret is to make yourself worth more. Probably a meaningless admonition to most slashdotters who think that the world owes them a living so they can spend all their time downloading files from Kazaa.

Sad Truth

[kenp2002]

The sad truth is that the H1B Visa is no longer an issue. It is easier and cheaper to outsource your entire support staff to a foreign country. With the maturing of high speed communications the ability to work with staff across the world is forcing labor costs down. Any law passed is easily circumvented as the support center ( consulting shop outside the US) is not part of the business entity. The only way that this behavior could be deterred is by putting a tarriff on foreign services which would too broadly impact other industries that arn't "abusing" (relative term here) this business option. P.S> Thank Clinton for raising the H1B visa cap his last day of executive power. 3 days later 2000 IT staff nation wide (US) were given notice. 700 here in Minnesota. Where I was at the time EVERY person that was laid off was replaced by H1B staff the following month (That totalled 22 people). One of my co-worker at $33/hr was replaced by a H1B @ $9.50/hr. NY Times was applauding Bill for helping create a 5 BILLION dollar IT industry in India. That's 5 billion that American Workers lost. That's 5 billion directly gone from the US economy.

TODO: Workflow and Training

[blunte]

Many development jobs may be leaving the US, but there are many other tech related jobs that will exist (and don't currently).

From my consulting experience (large and small companies), I've seen two areas that need major improvement: workflow and training.

They're actually strongly related. Many companies are just now basing a significant part of their business processes on technology. They've been gradually moving this way for some time, but it's at the point now where a tech catastrophy would seriously hurt them. However, they're still only taking advantage of perhaps 10 to 40% of what's technically feasible and also practical. There's still quite a lot of double entry of data and shuffling of papers.

So the workflow side should see a continued increase in technical development for years to come, and this will require services of "experts" of both the problem domain and technology solutions.

Training is the other area that should see continued and hopefully increased rate focus from businesses. Most users (and their bosses) approach computers and software as they approach a rental vehicle. They don't typically get much or any formal training, and they don't spend much time with books or manuals.

They're just scratching the surface of what much of their tools could do for them. Many people need broad and specific training to really make their technology work. An example of this is MS Exchange and Outlook. (I'm no fan of these, but I use them as example since they're ubiquitous.) Most business users can send and receive email, possibly with attachments. But most never touch their calendars, public folders, etc.

So maybe development is moving away, but there exists a big vacuum for other tech-related services, and those are going to stay right here in the US, if only because they often require personal contact.

MOD PARENT DOWN - PLAGIARIZED!

[SlashChick]

The parent post was copied directly from this link (originally linked in the article summary as Bruce Eckel's viewpoint.) Please do not mod the parent post up, as it is not an original post and does not identify the original source.

reality strikes

[rutledjw]

C++ may be C++ to some, but there are other stories as well. I have cousins who own a company which is NOT IT based but has moderate-to-heavy IT requirements. They've had trouble with goofy contractors writing poor software. Then again, they're in a small town far from a bigger one with better people.

Solution? Use an Indian company to do the job! C++ IS C++, after all. Within a year, they were back at square one. I have another friend that is interviewing and testing Indian developers for a proposed India-based development lab. Result? Very few were able to answer half the questions correctly (mid-level Java developer-type questions).

So, quality does kick in at some point. India is NOT the IT panacea some have hoped for. I still think we'll see some more outsourcing, but it isn't the end of IT as we know it. Not every company can do this kind of thing.

On the executive point, yes and no. There are a LOT of execs who are part of the good-ol-boy system. Those who are good, do a great deal more. But the squids...

Anywho, my opinion...