X-Prize Overview: To The Edge Of Space, Cheap

_randy_64 writes "The X-Prize competition has gotten a lot of coverage on Slashdot - either because it's cool and geeky or because John Carmack is involved. The Baltimore Sun has a decent background/overview article on the contest in Sunday's edition."

Comments

Re:Price

[Ruds]

Well, the article says 15,000 people/year would pay $100,000 for a 15-minute trip by 2021. Personally, I'd want more than 15 minutes in space for $100k, but there you go.

That doesn't seem like a bad growth rate for an industry--from 0 to 1.5 billion per year in only 20 years. Of course, the PC industry puts that to shame, but I don't think a whole lot of industries have matched that growth rate.

Matt

Re:Death of the X-Prize

[snake_dad]

Seriously, though, once one group has succeeded, what is the immediate benefit to other groups who may succeed afterwards? No $$ usually leads to seriously reduced efforts.

The X Prize Foundation has thought of that. The are working to set up a "racing" event for passenger-carrying spaceships, with contenders trying to win categories like fastest turnaround time, highest altitude, and numbers of passengers. They are hoping to get big sponsors that are now active in Formula 1, Indycars, and such.

Curious about X-Prize Finances

[augustz]

I'm curious about the X-Prize Foundations finances.

They filed their last Form 990 for 2001 late, and their 2002 990 hasn't shown up yet so I'm assuming they requested an extention for the last year as well. As a confidence builder the fact that they can't close their books by March or so for the previous year is not super postiive.

In 1998 we had this quote:
"The X PRIZE Foundation already has raised more than half of the $10 million purse and anticipates having the remaining funds within a year."

According to their 2001 990 at the end of the year they had $3,000 in cash and $1,000,000 in liabilities.

If someone has already looked into the situation (ie, status of insurance, supporting organization holding funds etc) do let me know, otherwise I'll work to pull together some relevant information.

As I get it I'll stick relevant info up at http://augustz.com/xprize. [Nothing up at the moment and maybe nothing will ever show up... :)]

The innovation around these projects is so cool however. Looking forward to the results!

Re:Curious about X-Prize Finances

[Anonymous Coward]

Their web site says they have a $10million insurance policy with a company that does those sports contests [kick field goal win $1million] to pay the winner.

Re:Curious about X-Prize Finances

[augustz]

Yes, I have reviewed their website. Strange they would take out $10 million in insurance after raising $5 million for the purse with the expectation that the next $5 million would be in by 1999. Perhaps they took it out for the remainder.

You would also expect that the expense of such an insurance policy would appear on their financials. They have a $120,000 annual expense for "Risk Insurance" which might be high enough to cover this, though I'm surpised a company would issue it that inexpensively. They may also have partners involved, there are a lot of different ways these things can be structured. However, the more complicated it is the more important the transparency bit is.

This "Risk Insurance" might also be D&O type stuff in case they got sued if something goes wrong with competition (ie, someone rushes to relaunch and cuts corners on safety).

I'll put in a request to them during the workweek for some clarification, it may be as easy as a FAQ update.

Thousands of incremental changes

[mykepredko]

In the article, the author makes the comment:

On May 20, 1927, the day Lindbergh's plane took off from New York, the young Boeing Corp. rolled out the Boeing 40-A, a simple plane used primarily to carry mail. By 1933, after thousands of flights and incremental improvements, that plane evolved into the Boeing 247, the first modern passenger airliner.

Looking at the Model 40-A (Boeing.com), you can see a fabric covered single engined biplane. Jumping to the 247 (Boeing.com), they are comparing to a dual engine, all metal monoplane with retractable landing gear.

I guess that you could say that the difference in the aircraft were a result of thousands of "incremental changes", but I would think that the difference is primarily the result of thousands of people being excited by the prospect of air travel - the incremental changes came later.

This should be the point of the X-Prize, rather than establishing a starting point for space travel, it should be an example of how low cost space flight could be achieved and then ignite the passions of many people with the result of space travel on a par with today's air travel.

myke

Re:Death of the X-Prize

[Pompatus]

Seriously, though, once one group has succeeded, what is the immediate benefit to other groups who may succeed afterwards?

I think the benefits to any group capable of fulfilling the x-prize requirements (carry three people 62.5 miles up into space) would be enormous. The X-Prize Foundation states that "For more than 30 years, the general public has waited for an opportunity to enjoy the space frontier on a first-hand basis. The X PRIZE Foundation is working to make space travel possible for all." People realize that ALOT of money could be made sending tourists to space. From the article, 15,000 people a year would pay $100,000 for a 15-minute suborbital trip by 2021. That doesn't sound bad at all for a small euntrepreneur. Granted, it's not exactly an IMMEDIATE benefit, but I think it might be worth it in the long run

Long term future?

[casuist99]

The first time there is a safety problem with any of the spacecraft, all hell will ensue.
The public will become fearful of visiting space on a private tourist craft, and the governments of many western nations will undoubtedly begin passing laws to regulate the industry.
Space tourism has a future, but I'm not so sure it's as lucrative as the foundation would have us believe.

Correction to Parent: Hubble Space Telescope Costs

[jstockdale]

Well although the parent is quick to point out the $200m cost of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) in comparison to the $400m shuttle launch cost thats just plain incorrect.

The correct figures are as follows (taken from http://hubble.nasa.gov/faq.html + NASA STS-82 docs):

Initial Cost: $1.5 Billion
Yearly Cost: $230-250 Million
STS-82 Repair:
Parts: $387 Million
Flight: $430 Million

So if we tally the costs over the first 15 years of operation (up to say ~2000) we come to: $5.3 Billion

Re:Death of the X-Prize

[Anonymous Coward]

"Seriously, though, once one group has succeeded, what is the immediate benefit to other groups who may succeed afterwards? No $$ usually leads to seriously reduced efforts."

I doesn't matter. Industry doesn't work like that. Just think of the flights around the globe or Linburg's flight across the atlantic.

Thing is, is that nobody knows how is the best way to get up into space is yet. Obviously tossing rockets up in the air only to watch them self destruct in order to do it is a very bad thing.

So once people figure out how to do it in a feasable way then that's once the $$ comes in. If it still remains unknown then there are just to many questions and nobody resposible to stockholders is willing to throw away his client's retirement money and his company's future on something that flimsy.

But that's how capitalism works, it's up to individuals to take the risks, not society. It's a risk, if a person fails he is a loser, so he has to try to find more money and try again. But once a person succeeds he has the right to profit from his efforts.

Beleive it or not the majority of rich people did it on their own. Most business owners fail miserably over and over again before they get it right and then have a chance to become rich. bankrupcy after bankrupcy, even jail time, then one day the risk taking pays off and they have a successful business and can provide jobs and livelyhoods for hundreds of other people not willing to take the risks.

That's why the X-prize exists. After completing the prize your going to be strapped for cash, time, and resources to say the least, if it wasn't for the x-prize you'd probably loose everything. If you win the prize it will keep you solvent long enough to sell the technology and you then have a chance to live out your dreams a rich man with access to space flight. :)

Of course this doesn't realy work to well for people like Camrak, but not everyone trying is already rich, but being wealthy has little to do with having good ideas about space flight or other new technologies.