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Is There A Madden Curse?

Posted by simoniker on from the don't-step-on-cracks-in-sidewalk dept.

Linda writes "GamerDad looks at the 'Madden Curse' for those featured on the front cover of the videogame, year by year, and talks about how it might have come a bit early this year: 'Sports fans know about the Sports Illustrated cover curse (athletes that grace the cover tend to get hurt, really bad, a lot) but a lesser known curse is the one caused by EA Sports' powerhouse Madden franchise. It began just a few years ago when EA took the big lug himself off the cover.'" There's another good synopsis of previous cover stars' woes at the AJC.com site, after Mike Vick of the Atlanta Falcons, this year's star, broke his leg at the weekend.

3 of 39 comments (clear)

  1. Regression to the Mean by Ieshan · · Score: 4, Informative

    No. It appears as though this is a classic example of regression.

    Players who make the Madden cover have amazing, exceptional years. The next year, we look at their play to see that (most of the time) it isn't as good as the previous year. Why?

    Well, these players have an average performance. The year before they made the cover, they were way above their average performance. The next year, it should follow that their performance isn't as good as this amazing season (two of these incredible seasons in a row is unlikely). Whether we claim it's because of injury, bad luck, or the Madden cover, either way, it's usually just a decent example of Regression.

    We could point out that players who perform extremely poorly and therefore have terrible stats in Madden games go on to improve wildly in their next year. This is the same statistical phenomenon. :)

    1. Re:Regression to the Mean by Ieshan · · Score: 2, Informative

      Of course it could be.

      There's an average player performance in football. We can pick out an "average" football player.

      We can also pick out exceptional ones - people so exceptional that we ought to put on the covers of video games. By the nature of the sport, that person is likely to not have as exceptional season as the year before. Since he was on the cover of Madden, instead of attributing his decline in performance to regression (Football player X is likely to perform as a non-exceptional player, all things taken into account), we attribute the decline to something unrelated (Player X was on the cover of Madden).

      Year to year regression is very common - people often say things about Rookie of the Year, and how that Rookie performs less well in his next season. Well, no wonder! He did as good as was possible the season before, there's nowhere to go but down!

  2. Article doesn't have the facts straight. by JavaLord · · Score: 2, Informative

    Madden years run ahead 1 year of the actual NFL season. What madden is calling "Madden 2004" is actually for the 2003 season. The person who wrote this article has the years mixed up.

    Madden 2001 which was released at the start of the 2000 season a season in which the Titans went to the playoffs and lost the ravens. Eddie George who was on the cover that year had an impressive season...He rushed for 1509 yards and 14 TD's and had an additional 453 yards recieving and 2 TDs.

    So overall he had 1962 yards and 16 tds. Very Impressive. He got injured the season AFTER that.

    Madden 2002 which was released at the start of the 2001 season had Daunte Culpepper on the cover. In 2001 Culpepper was injured for a short while, but still managed to pass for 2612 yards and 14 TD's. He also rushed for 416 yards and 5 TD's. So overall he had 3028 yards and 19 TD's. While those aren't pro bowl numbers they aren't too shabby. What is impressive is, he had those numbers in playing only 11 games instead of 16.

    Madden 2003 which was released at the start of the 2002 season had Marshall Faulk on the cover. In 2002, like Daunte Faulk was injured, although not badly enough to slow his productivity in the games he started. In only 10 Starts Marshall had 1490 all purpose yards and 10 TD's. While that is a down year for Marshall that is impressive for any other RB.

    Now, Madden 2004 has Mike Vick on the cover who got hurt in preseason and will miss 4 regular season games. The games he will miss are at Dallas, Washington, Tampa bay, and at Carolina. The Falcons will likely go 3-1 without him, 2-2 if they blow the game to Carolina.

    All in all, The Madden Curse didn't apply to Eddie George (he had a good year that year) and Culpepper and Faulk had off years due to minor injuries but their off years were as good as some players who weren't injured. We can't Judge Vick yet.

    I wouldn't call it a curse just yet, now the guys who were on the covers of those old Sega Gensis sports games were cursed.