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Japan's Proposed 30-Year Robot Program
Gallamine writes "A group of Japanese researchers have proposed a Government plan to spend 50 billion yen per year (that's over 400 million $US) for 30 years on developing a robot with capabilities of a 5-year-old. Japan's current economy may prevent the plan from happening, but the interesting point is the parallels to the U.S. Apollo space program, America's attempt to put a man on the moon. While expensive, the benefits to the American population from that program are probably unmeasurable. Perhaps the U.S. Government should consider funding such a program over here?"
10% Cute (or ugly to eveyone other than owner)
40% Crying
5% Crayon ability
15% Get daddy a beer
7% Underfoot
3% Questions beginning with 'Why'
20% Screaming, running, and breaking.
Please contact me for licensing.
let's let Japan do all the spending on the project, then we'll buy one of their fancy schancy new robots, and reproduce it ourselves.
I'm much rather have a 5 year-old with the capabilities of a robot.
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Does the use of '5 year old boy' as opposed to '5 year old girl' make anyone else a little uneasy? Actually thinking about it neither is particularly suited to the hotbed of hormones that is slashdot. Why not say 'equivalent to an average windows user'?
If you double the price and can get me a robot with all the capabilities of a 19 year old cheerleader, I'll call my congressman tonight.
I knew Japanese Anime are more of a documentary then entertainment! I can't wait to see huge robots fighting each other, being able to transform into jets and guardian modes! Plus with all the destruction that the robots will make, the Japanese construction companies will be busy for quite some time!
We don't even have a Big Guy to go with him!
"Lord, grant that I may always be right, for Thou knowest that I am hard to turn" -- A Scots-Irish prayer
This isn't the first time Japan is doing one of these long term plans. I watched a program a few years back explaining that japan had several plans like this ("tommorow's world" for people in the UK). Firstly they did a huge investment into transistors then silicon manufacturing and at the time of the program (1995 ish) they were part way through a huge investment into flat screen displays (not even TFT at that stage I dont think).
At the time I was thinking it was a huge mistake. Flat panes were slow, small and hugely expensive and no one would spend extra to have one to replace a better CRT. Im sure people were thinking the same sort of things on the other projects but they sure did pay off.
I'm not sure how Japan figures out what to pick but it seems to work. Maybe they are making very good choices or maybe if you stick enough money into something it will eventually pay off. And as sceptical I am of humanoid robots I can't say this is a silly idea any more.
Mouse powered Chips, Open source Processors and Lego
Could it get to the point where you have a "child" in a super human body?
We already have this. It's called "Mike Tyson".
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Just in time to send it to Mars to work on the power plant.
$7.5B wouldn't fund NASA for 6 months, much less colonize the moon.
It would probably take my girlfriend and I about four years to produce something with the capabilities of the average 5-year-old.
I'm pretty bright, and my girlfriend recently graduated from CMU with a degree in CS, and is now attending Johns Hopkins. It would (roughly speaking) take a 4-year-old child with an IQ of 125 to match a 5-year-old.
And for the quarter billion per year Japan is spending, I'd be able to afford some pretty neat educational toys, too!
Somebody get that guy an ambulance!
Japan has pitched an idea to create in 30 years a a robot with the capacity of a 5 year old child. The idea struck a cord in me, and I decided to take a break and just think on that.
Let's define the nature of the ultimate goal in robots in the business - I'm sure there will be quibbles, but this is my definition:
Ultimate Goal: To create a robot with human level intelligence and physical manipulation without sentience or self awareness.
By this definition, we mean the capacity to learn, to be instructed in tasks and incorporate ideas into itself and understand commands without detail, but without sentience or self awareness, never having emotions or being able to make fully independant decisions about freedom, what to do for itself.
In a word, the ultimate metal slave.
Let's throw ethics out the window for a moment - we'll get to those in a minute. But let's say you could make such a machine. One that you could give orders to "go clean the house", and it would intelligently understand and fulfill your wish without the "evil genie" effect (where a badly ruled wish has unintended consequences - see "The Monkey's Paw" for an example, where you could wish for a million dollars, and you would get it - after your son was killed in an automobile accident and the money was payment from a life insurance policy).
Ignoring if such a goal is possible (and, seeing how far we've come in 100 years, is it so far to reach that in 500 years we would be capable of building such a machine?), let's see what would happen to society.
Employees, especially blue collar, farmers, manufacturing and the like, could be mass produced. A whole army of robots that would work without tire, without pay, and if you could make them mass produced to be cheap (say $20,000 - $40,000 a year), if they break, get a new one. They could work day and night, rotating in 8-12 hour shifts for maintenance and repairs. Farms could be worked all day long, and if there was a problem, robots could go out and fix the issue. Need to pick the cotton/coffee beans? Just hire the robots to go out and do it. Wars fought by machines - never tiring, truly "bloodless" wars where a million "soldiers" could be airdropped into the field loaded with advanced weapons to wipe out the enemy by beings that have no conscience. (Granted, hacking would truly become the greatest weapon in society at that point, but just go with me a moment on the idea.)
Food prices, car prices - hell, prices for everything could actually drop, since the human cost of making them would be negligable. Ah - but for one major problem:
What do the people do?
Millions - let's even say 25% of the work force alone, just to argue - out of work. They're not needed at McDonald's or Ford or even Dell - replaced by machines. So what do they do? Not everybody could work in a robot making factory. Does the world start to become a place where human labor is practically no longer required? Where only a few work because they want to to design new things or create art, while millions simply live a life of leisure? Where everyone is guarunteed a certain level of life and comfort, and those who want more can sell their services of entertainment or some unique idea they are able to create in this new utopia of fully attained basic life for all people?
Or a world where millions can not get work and search but become homeless? If people think that having jobs from their country exported to foreign places willing to do it for less, how will they feel when the factory is still on native soil, but the jobs are for those tireless, non-paid, non-complaining machines? When they can't provide for their children, and the line between "haves" and "have-nots" is larger than ever?
I actually see a lot of promise in the idea - I really do. The benefits to business, to humanity could be huge. But I have the feeling should such a creation actua
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I must ponder this question: Before we create machines with human-level intelligence, shouldn't we first ask "why?".
As it is, we're running out of human jobs to do (McDonald's for example is toying with the idea of fully-automated vending machines), so what will happen when we can make machines that can work for almost nothing, and start replacing human jobs? And what will happen if and when these machines start thinking by themselves (in which case they will demand rights, just as we do) and if they decide that they don't need us?
I'm not saying we shouldn't do it, I just think we should be careful on _how_ we do it. I'm actually a believer that at some distant point in the future we humans will slowly evolve into machines, and _then_ at that point creating more machines will be a natural thing for us.
So I must ask, should we spend all those billions on machines instead of education? I don't want to sound like a miss universe contestant but right now world peace, world hunger, and world education should be our top priorities.
Again, don't bash me, I'm a true geek, I love machines, robots, AI, etc, it's just that I think we should spend some time thinking about the big issues facing humanity today.
On a related side note, space exploration is probably where I see the best use for robots.
Two words: Slave Labor. Robots don't threaten to walk out if working conditions are dangerous.
Don't trust any concentration of power.
Eh, I just checked, and 50 billion Yen equal $US 423 million, not $US 400 billion.
Wow, $US400 billion every year, that would be more than 10% of their total purchasing power (quoting CIA's numbers), and about 90% of their total gross revenue (not yet calculating their expenditure). That would have been some serious fucking spending. But no, they're not spending that many dollars, it's just the story submitter's inability to do math.
What time is it/will be over there? Check with my iPhone app!
The current (8/20/2003) exchange rate is 118.015 yen to the dollar.
Conceptual Guerilla is a great site with a decidedly leftist political bent that attempts to expose and digest some of the consequences of this new reality. I suggest anyone who's interested in discussing this further to head over to the forums there. I'd also like to thank the Slashdotter who put this link in their sig.
"I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
Our children should do nothing for a living.
There isn't any reason to concoct something for them to do.
They should simply be educated on the dangers of over-population and the use of contraceptives and how to operate the robots.
That's it.
"I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
Yes, then forget about the robots and colonize the moon or Mars.
Though lets start with a REAL space station first.
Actually, lets start with a more dependable heavy payload launch vehicle.
Three seperate posts, saying in effect, "Who cares what we spend the money on, as long as the government spends, spends, SPENDS!"
I, personally, agree with the spirit of the first poster who reccomends that we "worry about the robots after we figure out how to pay back our debt." (Although, it does look like Krisp wants to spend money on state-sponsored "education" - you have to have gone through a US public school to appreciate the irony in that.) And that's currently modded funny?
It's my money. Is it so wrong to let me keep it?
Carthago delenda est!