DARPA Looks Beyond Moore's Law

ddtstudio writes "DARPA (the folks who brought you the Internet) is, according to eWeek, looking more than ten years down the road when, they say, chip makers are going to have to have totally new chip fabrication technologies. Quantum gates? Indium Phosphide? Let's keep in mind that Moore's Law was more an observation than a predictive law of nature, despite how people treat it that way."

Comments

No, not just a wild guess

[kfg]

An educated observation, which is why it basically works.

Please note that the observation was well enough educated that it includes the fact that its validity will be limited in time frame and that before it becomes completely obsolete the multiplying factor will change, as it already has a couple of times.

In order to understand Moore's Law one must read his entire essay, not just have some vague idea of one portion of it.

Just as being able to quote "E=mc^2" in no way implies you have the slightest understanding of the Special Theory of Relativity.

KFG

IBM thinks so

[roystgnr]

They made an announcement about it less than a year ago. They don't say if they'll be doing anything special about heat problems, though.

Moore's Law is not a "law"

[pagley]

Thank Goodness someone has finally said something about it, even if it was just in passing. The bonus is that it is on the front page of Slashdot.

"Moore's Law" is no more a "law" in the sense of physics (or anything else for that matter), than any other basic observation made by a scientist or physicist.

Oddly, you'd have a hard time believing it wasn't a Law of Nature by the apocalyptic cries from the technology industry when "Moore's Law" falls behind - spouting that something *has* to be done immediately for Moore's Law to continue, lest the nuclear reaction in the Sun cease. Or something.

At the time it was coined by the *press* in 1965, only a small fraction of what we now know was known about the physics of integrated circuits and semiconductors at the time. So, looking back it's easy to see that the exponential trend in density would continue as long as the knowledge and abilility to manipluate materials increased exponentially.

Yes, it is rather surprising that Moore's observation has held true as long as it has. And this isn't to say that the growth trend won't continue, but it will certainly level off for periods while materials or manufacturing research comes up with some new knowledge to advance the industry.

As the article indicates, things are likely headed for a plateau, possibly toward the end of this decade or start of the next. And at that point, Moore's observation will simply no longer be true or appropriate.

Let the cries of armageddon begin as "Moore's Law" is finally recognized as an observation that will eventually be outlived.

For a little "Moore" background, see http://www.intel.com/research/silicon/mooreslaw.ht m

Re:The Diamond Age

[OneIsNotPrime]

The Slashdot article is here and the Wired article is here .

Since diamonds have a much higher thermal conductivity (ie they can take the heat), they'd make better chips than silicon if only they were more affordable. Industrial diamonds are expected to make the whole industry's prices fall drastically by increasing supply and breaking the De Beers cartel .

More about the De Beers cartel:

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Everything2 link

Personally I think these are awesome feats of engineering, and a way to give your significant other a stone without feeling morally, and literally, bankrupt.