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More on the Orbital Space Plane
AP has a decent piece looking at NASA's orbital space plane program, and describing it as a sedan compared to a tractor-trailer. National polls show that public support for the space program continues to be very strong.
NASA did a great job getting us to the moon during the cold war, but it has since turned into a bureaucratic machine, as highlighted in the Columbia post mortem report. I doubt this will change in the future, regardless of any efforts to do so, because bureaucracy is the nature of such agencies.
It would be MUCH better if the Government provided incentives to the various companies who are attemping to build space transportation systems. Those folks will be in it for profit, and their isn't any profit in destroying your launch systems to meet a schedule.
Rockets, my man, rockets. Shoot Hubble II into orbit with a rocket, and if a EVA is necessary to "assemble" it, then put the space plane on station and get it done. No hauling needed.
Granted, though, I'm not entirely certain that this 2 step process would be entirely cost effective. It's cheaper to shoot a rocket than it is to fire up the current Shuttle system, and I would imagine the proposed Space Plane system would have a significantly lower cost-per-flight, given the much reduced weight, but will both of those factors mitigate the cost of the single Shuttle flight? Only time will tell.
Haven't they learned anything?
I'm not certain they've done "Better, Cheaper, Faster" too well.
Because the shuttle had to be made far larger than the first one planned, too much new technology had to be invented to make it fly. If the planned progression happened as planned, the shuttles would have cost $200,000,000 rather than costing $2,200,000,000 each.
I predict that the progression of craft will not happen.
The leading article of this week's Economist (subscriber-only unfortunately) is a great summary of why the space shuttle needs to be retired. The shuttle is too expensive, unsafe, and unnecessary to justify dumping more money into the program. The vast amount of money that NASA spends on the shuttle and space station could be much better spent elsewhere. The space station exists because of the need to give the shuttle a purpose and the shuttle program only continues because of the space station. NASA should ditch the shuttle, encourage private enterprise in the space business, and concentrate on developing new methods of space travel that might actually result in new exploration instead of simply traveling around the earth in circles.
At one point, the reporter describes the craft has having stubby wings. The thing is, these craft look to have lifting body or partial lifting body designs, so they're essentially _all_ wing (at least the non-capsule ones are). The design at the top left side is especially so.
I hope that one of these designs pans out. It would make a lot of sense to have something cheap and small for human transport. By the look of the Space Shuttle, if it's going to be practical for people, the entire cargo bay would need to be converted a'la bus, which just doesn't seem like a very good idea.
Do not look into laser with remaining eye.
What they should do is spend the money they'd spend on a new cargo launch vehicle on space elevator development. the problem is that we still need to develop the cheap carbon nanotube construction methods in order to actually do it. Since they need an apparent success sooner than that in order to stay afloat, they're going to have to develop this light space plane, get the public back on their side, then take the time to develop a new heavy launch vehicle, and if THAT is then successful, they can start thinking about space elevators again. I mean, they're working on them now, but not in earnest.
I really would love to see the government spend a big chunk of cash on space elevator development, and spend it wisely.
"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
The space plane will have only two missions: [...] and to act as a standby lifeboat, parked at the space station for the evacuation of astronauts if there is an emergency.
This strikes me as a complete waste of money, if that's one of it's uses.
Come on people! Use a bloody Soyuz for that! They're a hell of a lot cheaper than $2.4 Billion Dollars! It's a freakin' lifeboat!
Okay, I understand that we would be limited to six people instead of seven. I don't have a problem with that, personally. We might have to be build another docking area. Fine. I think a Soyuz and a second docking area would be a hell of a lot cheaper than $2.4 billion dollars!
Don't get me wrong, I think the space-plane is a wise idea. Flying the shuttle is an expensive way to get people up to the space station (unless it's delivering parts, too). I could also see having one docked there if we were going to use Space Station personnel as a "fix-it" crew (if the Hubble has problems, send up the parts and use the "sedan" to drive over and fix it).
But leaving one of these expensive things docked there just to get astronauts back to the ground in the event of a catastrophe? Why not just use a Soyuz capsule which does the same thing at possibly a quarter of the cost?
>It only would have a crew of 4, and would carry light cargo.
Also, the article mentions NASA would also have to build a different heavy lifter, thus seperating the two technologies. The cheap taxpayer part of me is asking why we don't just use cheap Soyuz tech and rockets for some/most launches.
I wonder if the new heavy launcher that will eventually replace the shuttle will just be a simple rocket like the Europeans and Russians use, not another manned shuttle. If the spaceplane flies there will be no need for a manned huge shuttle/lifter.
The downside is that the science done on the shuttle would be down on a station, for the most part. I don't know if this is a big deal or not or if the space planes cargo section will make this a non-issue.
I like the idea that a spaceplane means that there will have to be a space station of some kind because there wont be enough real estate on the spaceplane to do much. Also, the optimist in me sees this as a logical step towards a permanent moon base.
I don't understand the current obsession with Mars when a moonbase could do so much more, but I'm sure that's a sticking point for many and not something I want to argue. Both would be amazing human accomplishments.
There was a previous article posted on slashdot regarding this that made a lot of sense. Unfortunately i do not remember the authors name and cannot do a search. If anyone remembers pelase post a link.
... something that can be done relatively simply and reliably using balistic capsules.
The article made a lot of sense. It basicly said the following things:
building spaceplanes is stupid. They are expensive and dangerous. And what is even worse most of the expense and danger on spaceplanes does not have to do with space exploration at all, but with take off and landing
A simple ballistic capsule with a parachute is many times simpler, safer and cheaper than a space plane. Every other space agency has figured this out a long time ago, but apparently NASA has too many Billions to burn through in order to have this simple revalation.
Saying the thing is projected to cost only 2.3 billion (or whatever they said) is completely meaningless, because if anyone pays attantion to the history of these projects they would know that this is guaranteed to go over budget.
Making the craft smaller will not bring much savings in development. The greatest development costs of a space plane that carries people will go in engineering and testing to ensure safety. The level of safety required is the same for four or seven people.
Well these are not my points they are from the article i mentioned. But I think they are good points.
I am for space exploration, but lets face it projects like these are clearly wastes of money.
Nasa should develop a simple safe ballistic craft, (something like the soyuz) and use the big bucks for actual space exploration.
It is completely mindbogglig that we are wasting money and lives because nasa insists on exotic ways of going into and out of orbit.
Unfortunately George W. Bush is no John F. Kennedy. He generally hates big government unless its in the Defense, Justice, or Homeland Security departments. He is a complete zero when it comes to interest in science or space. He is 100% about making money for himself and his friends and at present none of them has pitched any business plan for space:
1. Shoot rockets into space
2. ?????
3. Profit
Its no accident George's appointment as head of NASA is an accountant, with no clue about engineering or space, whose main goal was/is to cut spending at NASA. What little space program there is primarily to transfer money to big aerospace/defense contractors. Not sure anyone cares if they actually do anything useful with the money before they pocket their cut.
For the U.S. to have a space program that matters again there would need to be a visionary leader like JFK, a mission that matters (one beyond low earth orbit), a lead engineer like Kelly Johnson and a lean, mean organization like the Skunk Works of old.
Having NASA design yet another space plane is just wasting billions of dollars, and another decade and when your done, if they even manage to finish it this time, you'll still just be going back and forth to LEO. We wont have moved a single step forward.
A new space plane program has been started every couple of year at least since I worked there in the early 90's and everyone of them has been scraped after wasting money and time.
@de_machina
The winged design of the shuttle is far from having shown any improvement in space readiness - the higher complexity and the intention to re-use the vehicle have dramatically increased turnaround times. By the way, the idea of returning damaged satellites, repairing them on the ground and sending them back into space has never been successfully exploited.
For several reasons, the X-33 was dead from arrival, a fatally flawed design with the additional lack of capacity to carry people. At least with chemical, pure rocket propulsion, SSTO vehicles are neither feasible nor economically sound.
In contrary to frequent misconceptions, materials technology does not follow Moore's law - heat and stress resistance DO NOT double every 18 months!
It is easy to cry for more money, but as the OSP is likely to fail due to skyrocketing costs and technical problems (unless the capsule design is chosen), NASA will lack positive results, and without positive results, there is no funding. NASA would be better off to choose the technically best solution based on the available funds and be honest to the public about what is possible and what not.
Anyone who doubts NASA is in its glory age right now, needs to scribble out a Perl Script (or your language of choice), and download all these NASA Pictures of the Day. NASA in the 90's and this decade is accomplishing FAR MORE than the NASA of the Apollo Era.
. htm
http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/archivepix.html
This Space Plane is an excellent solution to a pressing problem.
The NASA program that holds the most incredible promise is Project Prometheus. This program should have an incredible impact on the future of mankind, yet is barely known. It is the coolest thing America is doing today. It is highly inaccurate to suggest NASA is idle or unsuccessful. Remember, the Space Shuttle is an important, highly visible PR project as much as a serious project. Much of the real scientific and engineering achievement occurs beneath the publics radar by computer controlled machines.
http://www.nuclearspace.com/a_project_prometheus3
HenryJamesFeltus.com
In retrospect, yes, NASA shouldn't have bothered developing the shuttle and should have just kept with Saturn-derived boosters.
But, at that point, the only way that NASA could fund any sort of manned space flight program was to promise that it would be reusable and would dramatically decrease the cost of all launchers. Also, given that the Saturn V line needed to be shut down, it had to be capable of assembling a space station out of parts, instead of being one or two Saturn launches. And everything piled on from there, with the NASA chiefs going on with blinders on hoping that everything would work its way out in the end.
Gentoo Sucks
If the Soviet Union (notorious for the poor quality control of its industries), could build a capsule-based space system with a reliability matching the U.S. shuttle system, then that tells met that capsules are inherently far safer than a space plane. Also note that in contrast to the shuttle, the fatal accidents happened in the 60s and early 70s, and there have been no fatalities since that time.
I'm not sure where they got the figure for the Ariane 5V, that sounds a tad heavy.
I wouldn't bank on the return of the Energia. It's big and requires cooperation between the Ukraine and Russia, which doesn't happen so easily. Right now, there's some good potential for heavy lift boosters via straightforward structural modifications of the Delta and Atlas boosters (to allow them to support a heavier payload) clustered in various configurations -- they don't have to stop at three boosters. It's theoretically possible, and I'm wagering that the people who designed the Delta and Atlas probably had that in mind for future development, because satelites keep getting bigger.
See, the interesting part, and the thing that makes it impossible for NASA to get a shuttle replacement together, is that you generally don't need to get even 28,000kg to a useful orbit. If you could get 5,000 kg to a useful orbit cheaply, you'd send up your satelite in 5,000 kg chunks and put it together while up there. But in order to do that you either need spacesuits that don't require prebreathing and extended preperations, an inflatable, presurized drydock, or really good robotics. And you'd need to fly it on a regular schedule.
The problem is that we need to keep the shuttle around until we're at least done building the space station because none of the exsisting modules would fit on it and would require a LOT of modification in order to be launched on a Delta or an Atlas booster, and might require some booster modifications to boot. And NASA really didn't want to give up their existing abilities, so they kept trying to avoid this.
I think that part of the drive for the OSP by NASA is because they realize that they are eventually going to be forced to give up the shuttle. The timings might be such that the shuttle is canceled shortly after all of the completed station modules are sent up. So the OSP is insurance that they will be able to stay in the manned spaceflight business after that happens, even if it takes a while before a true shuttle replacement shows up. They are going to railroad it through congress and hope that they can get it built and operational before they have to give up the shuttle.
And the railroading of the OSP is probably a good thing. Part of the problem with the X-30 and X-33 projects was that they took far too long to produce anything even mildly useful with them, so people would try to get a nice career as a middle manager, instead of designing and building the fscking thing. Remember that the most impressive aircraft of the cold war (U-2, SR-71, F-117) were build in the Skunk Works using an astonishingly small number of people in an incredibly short time span.
Gentoo Sucks