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The End of Physical Media
L-s-L69 writes "The register is reporting that Forrester is predicting that a third of all music sales will be made by downloads in the next five years. They also predict that almost 15 per cent of films will be viewed by "on-demand" services such as rather than by DVD or video by 2005. "
So here's the question: what effect do these predictions have on the ways in which companies in control of these industries approach their market? Do companies move to prevent the predicted move to electronic means or do they embrace it because of it's new seeming inevitability? Or has Forrester taken the very effects of its own findings release into account? And if so, might companies recognize this and try to undermine the research adjustment by acting differently than it otherwise would. Don't you just love how these silly little viscous cycles can come out of attempts at predicting trends in a market so easily controlled?
After you download the movie/music, you still need physical media to store it. It may be your hard-drive or your CD-ROM. The title sounds almost like you store the files in thin air.
The article says that CDs and DVDs will become obsolete. I think this is wrong. There will always have to be at least one hard copy that can't easily be deleted. Moreover, it says that people have already started to shun buying CDs. People haven't stopped buying CDs, they are just buying more blank ones. For those who see no need to spend several hundred dollars for an MP3 player in their home stereo or car, and then spending all the time and frustration installing it and syncing it with their PC, burning downloaded music onto CDs is a very viable alternative.
10 Bits= $.25
100 Bits= $.50
110 Bits= $.75
1000 Bits= 1 byte
I share your beefs with the user experience, but those can and probably will be resolved as the technology is refined. Cable box DVR's, e.g., could allow local caching for smoother rewind and fast forward.
You tell me how "whilst" differs from "while," and I'll stop calling you a pretentious jackass.
My guess is that broadcasted (cable/airwave) media and physical media will always coexist to fit different niches in the marketplace to fulfill different needs.
Ita erat quando hic adveni.
Are highly doubtful in general, much of the time. I'd really hate to say it, but a lot of it is corporate-funded pandering and dreaming out to try and force the market in a certain direction.
I think most people lost their faith in the powers of technological prediction when whole the flying cars by 1990 fell through.
People like to own things. It's the hunter-gatherer in us. The author does not understand consumers if he thinks that on-demand services is going to satify collectors. People want to own tangible things - whether it's a table or a DVD. Often times renting something is not enough. They are not as fond of paying for something they get to enjoy once.
Well yes, that's their hope. If you can't store it on anything than you have keep paying for your connection and pay again every time you watch something.
The media kills your wallet with a financial death by 1000 cuts.
What's more is the fact that "on demand" viewing is a push model disguised as a pull model. They who control the pipe get to control that which is available to you for your "demand." Think Clear Channel and the pop music machine become endemic to all media.
Of course this will only work if your media is taken from you or rendered usless by force, because, of course, what you want downloadable media for in the first place is to record it to permenant media for viewing, well, on demand. Like maybe on your boat 10 miles out of sight of land or your mountain getaway cabin or wherever.
Sure people want the convienience of on demand media from home, so they can record the shit on cheap, free and open storage media.
Never underestimate the bandwidth of a cupboard full of tapes, CDs and DVDs. Not to mention the fact that such are true on demand media.
KFG
If "they" seriously want to push this angle, they will be disappointed with the result. People want media they can take anywhere. I, for one, absolutely insist on being able to listen to Bach's 2nd Partita for unaccompanied violin while sitting in a rowing boat in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.
Never mind how I'm supposed to get there :-)
Most people do not have the resources to lug their broadband connections around on their backs. Most people, in fact, don't have broadband connections at all.
That's assuming the company continues to trade throughout your lifetime. Also assuming they don't decide to change the rules and hit you in the pocket anyway as a matter of policy.
Bah. Production and distribution in both new and traditional media are marginal costs. The money is in controling the distribution chanels and the marketing. Any band could get a half million CDs made. The trick is getting radio stations to play your song and Best Buy to stock the disc (in a prominent location). The bandwidth providers are a commodity. The money will still flow to who has the power to decide what gets heard.
bance.net
Okay, I thought this was interesting. I got to thinking though, if by 2005 physical media will be well on its way out, that would mean that the vast majority of consumers of DVD (and whatever) would have to have broadband service (with the exception of on-demand via digital cable or satelite, but again, this infers broadband).
So, I went and googled and found this study that basically says that by 2005 only 40% (or so) of US house holds will have broadband service. This too, is a forecast. So, it just seems to me that this projected date of 2005 is a bit, well, optimistic?
sad robot making broken music
Jack Valenti and Orrin Hatch will be first up against the wall when the revolution comes.