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Gloomy Outlook For Console Sales
Thanks to CNET News for their article indicating sales of consoles are predicted to slump until a new crop of machines is introduced. The article references a new survey from iSuppli which "expects [console] sales to be flat for the year and down as much as 10 percent in 2005", and points out that pressure will start to build to introduce next-gen hardware, quoting an analyst as saying "I don't think (that), when the companies developed this generation of consoles, they were prepared for it to be so short."
... and only a handful of good games for each.
Frankly, I see no reason to upgrade to an Xbox or PS2, because all the latest games that I've wanted (GTA3/VC) are available on the PC (which work beautifully with my Radeon 9500 Pro), and as far as the PS2 goes, the only advantage I've seen of it over my Dreamcast is that it has full scene anti-aliasing. Otherwise, I'm perfectly happy with my PC and Dreamcast for my gaming needs.. and I'm not paying $50 for the games (I don't buy many PC games, and DC is cheap).
I will admit, however, that I'm tempted to get a GameCube, simply because they have some really high quality games available for that machine. I am just holding out for a little while longer, because it looks like they'll probably drop the price again on that device, and I'd rather buy new than used.
Never hit your grandmother with a shovel, for it leaves a bad impression on her mind...
An article none too well done, I'd say. Everyone knows that money isn't made by selling consoles an sich, but by selling the games that run on them.
The article makes it appear as if that analyst has been studying graphs, without taking into account any external factors. Now that I come to think of it, it is very much possible he did just that, and drew some silly conclusions out of it.
"Those innocent fun games of the hallucination generation"
I find it amusing just how many people have been saying that the GameCube is dying. This sounds worse than the BSD is dying posts, and that still isn't dead yet. People also seem to forget that the worldwide sales of the GameCube are still outselling the Xbox, even if only by just a bit.
Seriously now... Nintendo didn't get to be a multi-billion dollar company by making bad business moves. Now while the GC may be behind the PS2 in total sales and the Xbox in American sales, I'd still bet money that it is a good money maker for the company.
-Through the server, over the router, off the firewall... Nothing but 'Net!
Not everybody out there wants or needs the same games you like. As was said they have all the games they really want. As soon as the GC drops (note to original poster: probably as soon as they stop offering the free game at the end of this month) I'll have the three major systems, but I like a wide variety of games and spent a vast amount of time playing them. Not everybody is a hardcore gamer. Telling people they need to upgrade when they are happy with what they have is silly. You don't buy a new car when you love the one you have do you?
Trust Your Technolust
Since Reuters reported 80,000 Gamecube consoles SHIPPED, not sold, they were accurate. There is a reason Nintendo stopped manufacturing the system until later this Fall.
:P Perhaps a bloody nose via the Gamecube will be enough, however.
And most people here or on VE3D, etc. that talk about Gamecube being third place are talking about the USA (or Europe), because that is where we live. This isn't the Playstation 1 or Super Famicom era - Japan is no longer the biggest or most important market for videogames (the world-wide best selling game last year, Vice City, wasn't even released in Japan until recently). Even ignoring the current state of the market, Sega Saturn sold really well in Japan, even beating the Playstation for a long time - but that honestly didn't matter to most game fans in Europe or America. We didn't get the Japanese games, usually, and retailers didn't choose to keep stocking the Saturn here just because it was doing well in Japan!
That said, I think a lot of the people that seem against Nintendo are hoping Gamecube does poorly not necessarily out of malice, but because Nintendo has needed a big punch to the face for years. They need to finally get it through their heads that they aren't the number one videogame console company anymore, and that they have to sotp dictating what gamers want. For example, would any GC owner have really objected to the system using standard DVD media? The system was showing that this was limitation almost from launch. Can Miyamoto (and his various synchophants like that guy from Silicon Knights) stop giving interviews where they tell us that games like Vice City are not the future of gaming, whether we like it or not? How about stop trying to sell us the 'big idea' that GC and GBA connectivity is a huge revolution in console gaming? Or that online gaming doesn't add anything? How about lowering their licensing fees so they are no longer the most expensive in the industry?
Nintendo is starting to be more humble, and they are starting to make some good changes (not essentially ignoring third parties anymore is a nice touch). But they need to do more. I think going third party might even be really good for them, personally, but I know that I will get crucified for suggesting that.
There is no excellent beauty that hath not some strangeness in the proportion. -- Francis Bacon
"I don't think (that), when the companies developed this generation of consoles, they were prepared for it to be so short."
Of course they weren't. The people who developed the big three believed, as do I, that the generation would last just as long as the previous ones: 5-7 years. And by rights, they should-- there's no real reason to produce a new console machine for 2004-2005, primarily because the advances in the technology are not significant enough to warrant a whole new system purchase. Incremental upgrades and piece-meal improvements are fine for PC gaming, where consumers have less of a monetary risk ($175 for a video card upgrade vs. $300 for an entirely new system, plus the $50 game in either case). If PS3 were to come out next year with only a new video chipset and maybe two or three minor improvements-- which is what it looks like is going to happen-- I won't buy it, I doubt the majority of gamers would buy it, and Sony's console business would spiral down the toilet. The manufacturers need to learn a lesson from Sega and the Dreamcast, specifically-- the first man in rarely winds up being the one who survives 'till the end.
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