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Diamandis Predicts X-Prize Winner Within One Year

Posted by CmdrTaco on from the wear-a-hardhat dept.

drix writes "Things are moving along for the X-Prize. The FAA is currently in the process of approving a launch site for competitors, several of which are set to launch "within the next few months." Perhaps most exciting, Peter Diamandis says he expects a winner within one year."

7 of 189 comments (clear)

  1. And space exploration is not easy! by 192939495969798999 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    From my dad's dealings with NASA, and from my own experiences with the kinds of robust computer systems involved, I think it would truly be an accomplishment for any private enterprise to successfully launch into space, do something productive, and potentially come back, manned or unmanned. It is just remarkably difficult to get things into space!

    --
    stuff |
    1. Re:And space exploration is not easy! by GileadGreene · · Score: 4, Interesting
      Damn! Better alert Boeing (the Delta series and others), and Lockheed Martin (the Atlas series and others), and Orbital Sciences (Pegasus and Taurus), and let them know how amazing it would be for a private enterprise to succesfully launch into space and do something productive. Last time I checked, none of them are government departments.

      The key question is whether or not it's possible for privately funded groups to get things into space. Right now every successful launch vehicle program that I'm aware of has been funded by a government. Which has led many people to believe that it costs so much to build a launch vehicle that only a government could afford it. Personally, having observed government space orgs an action, I'm more prone to believe that because launch vehicles have been government funded they cost a lot to build. Hopefully the X-prize guys, and groups like Elon Musk's SpaceX can validate that belief for me.

  2. Homebrew Satellites by L-s-L69 · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Will these cheap and private enterprise driven launches lead to many more privately owned satellites in low earth orbit? Just wondering as this would have many very practical applications as well as leading to intense crowding in LEO. Just a thought.

  3. Scaled Composites by fudgefactor7 · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Right now, it's a clear lead for Scaled Composites, at 57%, according to the poll. I admit, I haven't followed this really closely--except for the occasional Armadillo story--but I think I'm going to have to look into Scaled Composites a bit more. Although it would be really cool to see Carmack win, I kind of doubt it will happen that way.

  4. X-Prize spaceport events.. by adeyadey · · Score: 4, Interesting

    One interesting proposed idea was to turn these launches from spaceports into paid-entry "events" - with different competitors competing for the best performance etc. When you think about how much money is made in other racing events, this may not be such a bad way to make this technology pay..

    --
    "You lied to me! There is a Swansea!"
  5. Re:I predict something else... by The+G · · Score: 5, Interesting

    As the article notes, it is quite likely that someone will die in this endeavor. But private -- the first step to ubiquitous -- space flight is a cause worth risking, and losing, one's life for. If I were given the opportunity, I would accept in an instant.

    Our society has lived for 110 years without a frontier, and in that time we have forgotten that there are things more important than human life -- that there are risks worth taking. Living without a frontier has sapped our courage, our will to freedom, and our sense of proportion. But frontiers aren't opened without pain and loss and death. In the end, though, they're worth it, for what they do for us as individuals and for us as a civilsation, and that's as true of the next (never say final!) frontier as of the earthly ones.

    Beside the grandeur of the universe and the infinite potential that we unlock when we open it to humanity, what is life? A valuable and unique thing that we must stand ready to sacrifice for the dreams and goals that make humanity worth its place in the world. The last and most valuable coin we have to bet for one more step toward the ultimate prize: A wider and stranger and more glorious human universe.
    --G

  6. Re:I predict something else... by Eight+01 · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I'd bet on Rutan also for a first flight. However, Carmack may end up furthering the goals of the X-Prize more than Rutan.

    Carmack seems to be focusing on basic engine refinement - making engines cheaper to build and run. Getting mass into space isn't hard, it just requires a lot of money for the vehicle and the fuel. If he is as successful with this as he has been in refining 3D rendering algorhithms, his effect on space access will be profound.