Earth Simulator Now Predicting Hurricanes?

GeoGreg writes "The BBC is reporting that the Japanese Earth Simulator supercomputer is producing results showing that it is possible to model climate down to the level of severe weather events such as hurricanes. This computer has been discussed on Slashdot previously, and it sounds like at least some of the hype around this beastie was justified."

Comments

Earthsim do cool things

[lingqi]

Saw a TV program on it a while back; they showed research on researchers using EarthSim to see shockwave propogation if a large earthquake was to occur in Kanto, or more specifically within a short distance to Tokyo (which is probably the biggest worry to the entire Japanese seismelogical and to a lesser extent meterological bodies).

The conclusion was basically that Japan would be f***'ed if such was to happen, but that's rant for another day.

So, earthsimulator simulates a lot of things. I am surprised that they don't model nuclear blasts on them, because it certainly CAN. Or at least we just don't know about it.

One thing is for sure, though - I will attest that NEC definitely made a bundle over this =)

btw, for ppl who are in japan, you can schedule tours to the place. I havn't tried yet, but in case anyone is interested... (now that I think about it, wasn't there a story about this a while back?) but here is a link just for fun: visitor information.

and if you are brave enough for the same page in japanese, click here. (The japanese page has a japanese map, which shows station names in kanji. I always found kanji station names to be more help, but that might be just me...

Re:Earthsim do cool things

[Raveolution]

Take a look to the authorized projects list for 2003 Here.

Re:Output

[girouette]

Each run of the model only offers one solution (called a deterministic forecast).

There is a technique called ensemble forecasting, whereby you run multiple instances of the model with slightly disturbed initial conditions and/or slightly tweaked model parameters. You can then examine the statistics of the ensemble to try and obtain information a deterministic forecast might not be able to give you.

Note that the goal in this particular case is not hurricane forecasting as such. The newsworthy information is that this is the first time that a climate model can be run at a resolution high enough that hurricanes become possible within the simulation. Short term models used for the daily weather forecast do this reasonably well already.

Re:Model

[Davak]

Really?

dictionary.com gives me...

Insure - To make sure, certain, or secure. (See Usage Note at assure)
Ensure - To make sure or certain; insure: Our precautions ensured our safety. (See Usage Note at assure.)

Usage Note: Assure, ensure, and insure all mean "to make secure or certain." Only assure is used with reference to a person in the sense of "to set the mind at rest": assured the leader of his loyalty. Although ensure and insure are generally interchangeable, only insure is now widely used in American English in the commercial sense of "to guarantee persons or property against risk."

I'm still not sure who is correct here. Please don't make me diagram the sentence. :)

Davak

Re:10km resolution

[Katchina'404]

A cubic kilometer is the volume of a cube of 1km*1km*1km = 1km^3.

Therefore 10 cubic kilometers is the volume of 10 such cubes. For example, a volume of 10km*1km*1km is 10 cubic kilometers.

If you want a cube of 10 cubic kilometers, it would have a height (and width and depth, of course) of [cubic-root of 10]km, which is about 2.15km.

Re:10km resolution

[imsabbel]

actually, the 10km are not hight. A modern simulation uses 30-70 layers, spread across the 15-25km height they simulate

Re:Model

[Glock27]

the Japanese Earth Simulator supercomputer is producing results showing that it is possible to model climate down to the level of severe weather events

First of all, that is already happening with current weather models...those are the ones that predict hurricane paths and such. There were already predictions that this would be an unusually heavy hurricane season before it started - those were due to climate models that showed the ocean area responsible would be warmer than normal.

Predicting where hurricanes will appear and where they will go ahead of time (that is without looking at the current weather patterns while it is happening) involves that pesky chaos thing and good luck with that.

Perhaps what the person was trying to say is that this is the first time researchers have been able to run 10 km. (or 5, or 1) resolution models on a global scale all at once - and that is quite an achievement if so.

BTW, the point of all this is not to predict individual hurricanes or tracks. It is primarily to identify long-term climate trends. From the article:

"This means that we potentially have the capability to predict whether storms like Hurricane Isabel will be on the increase in future." - Professor Julia Slingo. (Hmmm, I guess she's from Soviet Russia;)