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Earth Simulator Now Predicting Hurricanes?

Posted by simoniker on from the but-not-godzilla dept.

GeoGreg writes "The BBC is reporting that the Japanese Earth Simulator supercomputer is producing results showing that it is possible to model climate down to the level of severe weather events such as hurricanes. This computer has been discussed on Slashdot previously, and it sounds like at least some of the hype around this beastie was justified."

6 of 167 comments (clear)

  1. Model by CGP314 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    the Japanese Earth Simulator supercomputer is producing results showing that it is possible to model climate down to the level of severe weather events

    Sure, you can model it, but how accurate is the model? I can model a cow as a sphere, but I haven't told you if that is appropriate for what I need.

    1. Re:Model by Davak · · Score: 4, Insightful

      In my belief, this is an excellent point. Being in a scientific field, I have a tendency...err...not to believe people doing research!

      This thing is easy enough to test. Plug in a the variables today... and see if it predicts the weather currently tomorrow, or the next big hurricane, or whatever. They haven't published this type of research yet... why not?

      Pretty graphics and powerful computers do not insure success.

      Show me the data.

      Davak

    2. Re:Model by snarkh · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Being in a scientific field, you might have taken a minute to read the article, where it says that the computer is designed for climate not weather forecast. I.e., you might get an accurate estimate for the probability of a hurricane within a given month, but don't expect to find out the weather for tomorrow.

  2. 10km resolution by CriX · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Wow, I'm surprised that a resolution of 10 cubic kilometers is enough to actually make any predictions besides the most general of weather trends.

    Think of the variation between the state of air at sea level and then at the ceiling of a 10km cell... that's some severe approximation.

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    Moderation: +1 pwnage
    1. Re:10km resolution by rfovell · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Wow, I'm surprised that a resolution of 10 cubic kilometers is enough to actually make any predictions besides the most general of weather trends.

      Think of the variation between the state of air at sea level and then at the ceiling of a 10km cell... that's some severe approximation.

      It would be a horrifically bad approximation, yes, but you cannot compare horizontal resolutions and scales with vertical ones. The temperature variation over the lowest 10 km is about 70C (130F). At that height, pressure and density are both about 20% of their sea level values. You'll never find that kind of variation in the horizontal over any distance, never mind adjacent 10 km grid squares.

      There is much that cannot be resolved at 10 km, but at this point in time 10 km horizontal resolution on a global scale is fantastic.

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      Every rule has an exception (except this one).
  3. Better models please by Pedrito · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I live in Southern Mexico on the coast. About 5 years ago Hurrican Mitch, a category 5 hurricane, was sitting out at sea not too far away. For nearly a week it hardly moved, just hanging out in the middle of the ocean building up strength. The whole time, the NOAA/NHC was predicting it would hit us dead on in 3 days. Yet the hurricane just stayed there.

    Suddenly, the hurricane turned south and hit Honduras. Where it again stalled and hung out for 3 days. In the end, about 11,000 Hondurans died, primarily from massive mudslides that consumed enitre villages.

    I really hope they improve the models significantly so that things like this don't have to happen. If hurricanes could be predicted with more accuracy, to the point that people and countries could trust the predictions, these areas could be evacuated.

    Unfortunately, with the level of accuracy, there's such a wide area in the predicted path that it's impossible to evacuate everyone that could potentially be in the path in time to save them.

    When I first moved down here, I though, "Gee, I'd like to see what a hurricane is like." Then Mitch showed up. When you have a category 5 hurricane on your doorstep, you start to re-evaluate your life a bit. The town I live in would have been leveled. I would have been one of the lucky ones. I had a car and would have simply driven inland to avoid it. A lot of people couldn't have afforded to do that.

    With more accurate predictions, the government could sponsor the evacuations and save a lot of lives.