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Earth Simulator Now Predicting Hurricanes?

Posted by simoniker on from the but-not-godzilla dept.

GeoGreg writes "The BBC is reporting that the Japanese Earth Simulator supercomputer is producing results showing that it is possible to model climate down to the level of severe weather events such as hurricanes. This computer has been discussed on Slashdot previously, and it sounds like at least some of the hype around this beastie was justified."

4 of 167 comments (clear)

  1. Model by CGP314 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    the Japanese Earth Simulator supercomputer is producing results showing that it is possible to model climate down to the level of severe weather events

    Sure, you can model it, but how accurate is the model? I can model a cow as a sphere, but I haven't told you if that is appropriate for what I need.

    1. Re:Model by Davak · · Score: 4, Insightful

      In my belief, this is an excellent point. Being in a scientific field, I have a tendency...err...not to believe people doing research!

      This thing is easy enough to test. Plug in a the variables today... and see if it predicts the weather currently tomorrow, or the next big hurricane, or whatever. They haven't published this type of research yet... why not?

      Pretty graphics and powerful computers do not insure success.

      Show me the data.

      Davak

  2. 10km resolution by CriX · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Wow, I'm surprised that a resolution of 10 cubic kilometers is enough to actually make any predictions besides the most general of weather trends.

    Think of the variation between the state of air at sea level and then at the ceiling of a 10km cell... that's some severe approximation.

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    1. Re:10km resolution by rfovell · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Wow, I'm surprised that a resolution of 10 cubic kilometers is enough to actually make any predictions besides the most general of weather trends.

      Think of the variation between the state of air at sea level and then at the ceiling of a 10km cell... that's some severe approximation.

      It would be a horrifically bad approximation, yes, but you cannot compare horizontal resolutions and scales with vertical ones. The temperature variation over the lowest 10 km is about 70C (130F). At that height, pressure and density are both about 20% of their sea level values. You'll never find that kind of variation in the horizontal over any distance, never mind adjacent 10 km grid squares.

      There is much that cannot be resolved at 10 km, but at this point in time 10 km horizontal resolution on a global scale is fantastic.

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