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Earth Simulator Now Predicting Hurricanes?

Posted by simoniker on from the but-not-godzilla dept.

GeoGreg writes "The BBC is reporting that the Japanese Earth Simulator supercomputer is producing results showing that it is possible to model climate down to the level of severe weather events such as hurricanes. This computer has been discussed on Slashdot previously, and it sounds like at least some of the hype around this beastie was justified."

5 of 167 comments (clear)

  1. Butterfly by tgrasl · · Score: 5, Funny

    Can It predict where to put the butterfly to stop them ?

  2. Pish posh. by JanusFury · · Score: 5, Funny

    I'm still waiting for a supercomputer that can create hurricanes. Who cares about predicting them when you can't do anything to stop them? I envision a future where we stop hurricanes by throwing other hurricanes at them, and nations conduct large scale wars by throwing hurricanes at each other.

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    using namespace slashdot;
    troll::post();
  3. Earthsim do cool things by lingqi · · Score: 5, Informative
    Saw a TV program on it a while back; they showed research on researchers using EarthSim to see shockwave propogation if a large earthquake was to occur in Kanto, or more specifically within a short distance to Tokyo (which is probably the biggest worry to the entire Japanese seismelogical and to a lesser extent meterological bodies).

    The conclusion was basically that Japan would be f***'ed if such was to happen, but that's rant for another day.

    So, earthsimulator simulates a lot of things. I am surprised that they don't model nuclear blasts on them, because it certainly CAN. Or at least we just don't know about it.

    One thing is for sure, though - I will attest that NEC definitely made a bundle over this =)

    btw, for ppl who are in japan, you can schedule tours to the place. I havn't tried yet, but in case anyone is interested... (now that I think about it, wasn't there a story about this a while back?) but here is a link just for fun: visitor information.

    and if you are brave enough for the same page in japanese, click here. (The japanese page has a japanese map, which shows station names in kanji. I always found kanji station names to be more help, but that might be just me...

    --

    My life in the land of the rising sun.

    1. Re:Earthsim do cool things by Raveolution · · Score: 5, Informative

      Take a look to the authorized projects list for 2003 Here.

  4. Re:Output by girouette · · Score: 5, Informative

    Each run of the model only offers one solution (called a deterministic forecast).

    There is a technique called ensemble forecasting, whereby you run multiple instances of the model with slightly disturbed initial conditions and/or slightly tweaked model parameters. You can then examine the statistics of the ensemble to try and obtain information a deterministic forecast might not be able to give you.

    Note that the goal in this particular case is not hurricane forecasting as such. The newsworthy information is that this is the first time that a climate model can be run at a resolution high enough that hurricanes become possible within the simulation. Short term models used for the daily weather forecast do this reasonably well already.