Making An MMOG For The Masses
Thanks to GameSpy for their article exploring whether massively multiplayer games can ever break into the mainstream. The piece starts by contrasting EverQuest's 460,000 subscribers with other media, saying: "What EverQuest is not, however, is a mass-market success. J.K. Rowling sold over nine million copies of Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix this summer. Michael Jackson sold 25 million copies of 'Thriller.'" It goes on to analyze mass-market MMOG attempts such as the still-profitable, but disappointing The Sims Online, which Sims creator Will Wright says "...was the poster child for massively multiplayer games going wrong with the mass market", and Richard Garriott also comments: "...though the high concept was fabulous, [The Sims Online] suffocated under its own development weight."
I think that you're correct that it won't happen.
I'm no head-shrinker, but it appears to me that playing an MMORPG, at least as it has been defined so far, requires somewhat of an obsessive-compulsive personality. Yes, I've played them...UO, EQ, AC, DaoC...It is simply not a casual experience, and although people who play them appear to get some sort of satisfaction, I wouldn't call them 'entertaining' or 'fun'. They demand dedication and endurance to participate even partially.
Take for example Star Trek, another piece of popular media that has attracted the obsessive (go to a convention to verify my assertion). Star Trek can be enjoyed by a casual participant (My mother), but also has provided a fertile ground for an astonishing array of fan community participation (fan porn stories..both gay and straight, conventions, the klingon alphabet, you name it)
With Star Trek, the difference is that the provided experience is the same for everybody, designed for casual consumption, and people do with it what they will. With MMORPG, the provided experience is targeted at the most dedicated fans, and most sane people simply don't have the level of interest required to keep up with what that requires. I cannot imagine my mother (or myself) watching Star Trek if she had to wear some pointy ears or glue something to her forehead to successfully watch it.
Laugh while you can, monkey-boy!