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Millions Delete ALL Music Files?
Honig the Apothecary writes "CNN is reporting that millions of people have deleted all the music files from their computers in a story here.
My question is how the hell would they know? Are they substituting "deleted" for the words "disabled sharing with other users"?"
Methodology Note: NPD MusicWatch Digital information is collected continuously from the PCs of 40,000 volunteer online panelists, balanced to represent the online population of PC users. NPD's MusicLab survey was fielded in September of 2003 to a representative sample of 5,000 respondents aged 13 and older.
Still, you have to believe their volunteer panelists wouldn't fess up to having any downloaded music given the current RIAA intimidation tactics.
http://www.npd.com/press/releases/press_031105.
it's done via telephone survey apparently
every day http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Random
Yup, cnn is own by time warner. They also own all of these music labels.
u emoona rner Brothers Recordsa rner Music Internationaln esuch
Warner Music Group - Recording Labels
The Atlantic Group
Atlantic Classics
Atlantic Jazz
Atlantic Nashville
Atlantic Theater
Big Beat
Blackground
Breaking
Igloo
Lava
Mesa/Bl
Modern
1 43
Rhino Records
Elektra Entertainment Group
Elektra
EastWest
Asylum
Elektra/Sire
W
Warner Brothers
Warner Nashville
Warner Alliance
Warner Resound
Warner Sunset
Reprise
Reprise Nashville
American Recordings
Giant
Maverick
Revolution
Qwest
W
WEA Telegram
East West ZTT
Coalition
CGD East West
China
Continential
DRO East West
Erato
Fazer
Finlandia
Magneoton
MCM
No
Teldec
Other Recording Interests
Warner/Chappell Music (publishing company)
WEA Inc. (sales, distribution and manufacturing)
Ivy Hill Corporation (printing and packaging)
Warner Special Products
Source: http://www.cjr.org/tools/owners/timewarner.asp
In America we are imprisoned by our fear of them.
Nothing like reading a RIAA paid INFO-tisement.
and I really love how they still paint ANY music file as illigitimate and EVIL.
I'm educating my daughter and her friends, they spend at least 2 days a week surfing on www.iuma.org for new indie bands to download and they have cince stopped listening to RIAA music on the radio. My daughter has asked if I could buy her a few of the CD of artists she likes, they ALL are unsigned bands from IUMA.
when you discover that there is an alternative source that only takes a bit of effort to get better quality music.... I can see why the RIAA is extremely afraid of music files.
Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
The article is from reuters, not CNN, you silly, silly bastard.
...
LOS ANGELES, California (Reuters) -- More than a million households deleted all the digital music files they had saved on their PCs in August, a sign that the record industry's anti-piracy tactics are hitting home, research company NPD Group said.
Hmm I wonder if people who know their computers are being monitored are more likely to delete their digital music files... Maybe that would affect the validity of this study, you think?
Here is the official press release
Note it states:
--Kobayashi--
I found this on The RIAA's website, an article I skimmed while looking for their take on these "facts" as reported by CNN. At the bottom of the article, I saw the following (emphasis is mine):
The Recording Industry Association of America is the trade group that represents the U.S. recording industry. Its mission is to foster a business and legal climate that supports and promotes our members' creative and financial vitality. Its members are the record companies that comprise the most vibrant national music industry in the world. RIAA(R) members create, manufacture and/or distribute approximately 90% of all legitimate sound recordings produced and sold in the United States.
The Anti-Piracy division of the RIAA investigates the illegal production and distribution of sound recordings that cost the music industry hundreds of millions of dollars a year domestically. Consumers, retailers and replicators can report suspected music piracy to the RIAA by dialing a toll-free hotline, 1.800.BAD.BEAT, or sending email to badbeat@riaa.com or cdreward@riaa.com.
Dear RIAA,
YOU FAIL IT!
Love,
Everybody
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last updated 7/21/03
US Democracy:The best person for the job (among These pre-selected choices...)
Yeah, that's my point-- I'm pretty well familiar with sampling, given it's my job. And a truly random 40,000 sample would be plenty to give you 95% conf. in a 1e8 population (actually, it'd give you well over 99% for a yes/no question, probably with a margin of 1-2% depending on where the responses landed). IF the sample was properly selected.
The technique is called random sampling, and it hasn't been applied here. This is a self-selecting (or at least voluntary response, they didn't indicate how they got their panelists), non-random sample, asking for information on behaviour that's widely believed to be illegal, or at least has the potential for negative consequences. The sample isn't just not representative of the population, it's virtually guarenteed to be exclusive of the population you're trying to extrapolate into.
And they didn't ask a question, they're continuously monitoring the computers of their voluntary panelists (stated in their press release). How may people with good MP3 collections do you know that'll let the RIAA install monitoring software? Thought so.
--
1984 was supposed to be a warning, not an instruction manual.
Kudos to you for actually going to the NPD site and finding out the basis of their claims before bitching on /. :p
:Eighty percent of the consumers who deleted files had fewer than 50 files saved; just 10 percent had more than 200 files.
And to answer your question:
Hmm I wonder if people who know their computers are being monitored are more likely to delete their digital music files... Maybe that would affect the validity of this study, you think?
Yes; this is called voluntary response bias in statistics. People with large collections of illegal files are much less likely to volunteer to have their PC watched, as you implied. Note from the official press release
I think most people will agree that 80% having less than 50 songs is not an accurate representation of the file-sharing population.
Moderation Totals: Flamebait=2, Troll=1, Redundant=1, Insightful=6, Overrated=1, Underrated=1, Total=12. (not mine)
"Good answers? Usually I like correct answers more..."
OK, I'll elaborate on their answers to my questions, and why I found them satisfactory. For example, when I asked them about whether people tended to read the first questions on a survey more closely, and skim the later ones, they said that they knew that, and permute their question sequence across the sample set, so that the bias would average out. This also compensates for any sequencing artifact, where one question will affect the answer to the next question, because the questions will appear in the opposite sequence 1/2 the time. They've also mentioned compensating for people's desire to please surveyors by saying "yes" more often than "no" to questions, by phrasing test questions both positively and negatively (i.e. "yes" to one means "no" to the other) so that they can model the difference compensate across other questions. And they make sure that their panel mirrors the general public in terms of age, gender, income and geographical distribution. Heck, I saw one survey where they made sure that the panelists had a representative distribution of computer configurations and modem speeds so that they didn't bias the sample by having too many panelists on broadband and fast PC's...
So I can't say that I've talked with them about this study, but I'm pretty sure that they thought of obvious factors like "people deny doing illegal things".
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