Analysts Predict Consoles Sales Peak Reached

Thanks to Yahoo News for reprinting the press release regarding financial analysts' predictions that the current videogame console cycle has peaked. According to a spokesman for U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray, "We believe spring 2003 marked the midpoint of the current video game cycle", suggesting 2003 "will be the peak year for unit sales of current generation hardware." This may mean leaner times before the next generation of console hardware debuts, predicted by Piper Jaffray for "autumn 2006", and meanwhile, the company is forecasting "...that 22.3 million hardware units will be sold in North America in 2003, a modest increase from 21.1 million units in 2002 and will subsequently decline in 2004 to sales of 20.3 million units as the installed base of video game hardware becomes saturated."

Comments

the article doesn't mention

[theMerovingian]

that the amount of fun you can have playing console games peaked in 1990.

FIRST POST

[ChewBakaSan]

ha ha ha ha ha

Re:FIRST POST

[incubusnb]

you failed miserably, now go shoot yourself for being a slow idiot

Re:FIRST POST

[ChewBakaSan]

go f* yourself. it's not me that's slow, it's slashdot. they have rules on how long you have to wait before posting, and how many times you can post.

I shoved a Greased Yoda Doll up YOUR ass

[Anonymous Coward]

GO FREEBSD!

WILDCAT IS ON TEH SPOKE

[Anonymous Coward]

Not a fan, but . . .

[Leroy_Brown242]

It seams like every month there is a new console on the market. This has to have an effect.

Also, with so many people having computers these days, why have a console? Sounds like redundant spending to me.

Re:Not a fan, but . . .

[kisrael]

Also, with so many people having computers these days, why have a console? Sounds like redundant spending to me.
Sigh. We've been through this many times. Consoles offer different thing than computer games: less online play for the most part, less download mods, and less customization in general, but bigger screens, a different and in some ways much more varied selection of quality games, good standard controls for many games (less so for FPS and RTS) and a pretty much iron clad guarantee that the game will work. The cost is comparable or possibly much less than the cost of keeping a PC up to date w/ video cards and what not.

And despite stuff like the N-Gage and random barely-better-than-homebrew systems coming out, roughly speaking, this generation is defined by consoles released on or before the end of 2001.
(PS2 2000, Xbox, GC 2001, GBA 2001, maybe DC 1999) Every other console has been a day late and a dollar short.

Re:Not a fan, but . . .

[ElleyKitten]

Consoles are cheaper than computers for gaming, I don't care what funny math you freaks pull up. =)

I bought my PS2 for $75 a year ago. It will continue to play brand-new popular games until 2006 when the PS3 comes out. That's 4 years of gaming vs. the 6 months to a year of a video card twice the price. Not counting keeping up with the rest of the hardware and the headaches that come with analyzing system requirements. It's just cheaper and easier to get a console.

Re:Not a fan, but . . .

[Prior Restraint]

...bigger screens...

With crappy resolution. Plus, the screen can't usefully occupy more than 100% of your retinas. Most people sit very close to their PCs.

The cost is comparable or possibly much less than the cost of keeping a PC up to date w/ video cards and what not.

I'm not so sure. If you insist on staying bleeding edge, sure, but how many PC games insist on it? If I'm willing to put up with 640x480@60Hz (same as TV), I can go years between upgrades.

Re:Not a fan, but . . .

[Prior Restraint]

Was your PS2 new or used? I can get used video cards for the cash I carry in my pockets. Plus, as I mentioned above, you don't have to stay bleeding edge to play current games.

Apples to apples, it's largely a wash.

Re:Not a fan, but . . .

[musikit]

well considering i have a Mac and no one offers Mac games anymore i buy consoles so i can continue to play games. although with the way games are today might as well buy the cheapest PC you can until you can't play games on it anymore then do the same. actually thats my plan right now.

Re:Not a fan, but . . .

[kisrael]

...bigger screens...
With crappy resolution. Plus, the screen can't usefully occupy more than 100% of your retinas. Most people sit very close to their PCs.

Actually, I prefer the lower resolutions. When I see, say, Halo on a highend rig at Microcenter, I'm struck by how fake it looks, because the polygons are so crisply edged. Lower rez TV actually has a nice blurring effect.

And size is size; I wouldn't want my friends to gather round the couch facing something the size of my PC's screen.

I'm not so sure. If you insist on staying bleeding edge, sure, but how many PC games insist on it?

I don't know...and I don't have to know. That's why I like sticking with consoles.

Just for giggles I tried running Quake III demo on my 2002 mid-level system. It was beastly slow, esp. for such an older game. Since then I've learned that maybe that's not a representative game, but still. For the social gaming I prefer (i.e. multiplayer but not online) consoles are the only game in town.

Re:Not a fan, but . . .

[brotherscrim]

codswallop. If the current run of games requires you to spend more than $150 to upgrade the machine you bought 2-3 years ago (a very real possibility), then we're are not talking about "largely a wash."

As for not having to stay on the bleeding edge to play games, that's true: But to be able to play brand-new games on 3yr old hardware at a decent frame rate for more than a few minutes before your machine locks up or crashes is frankly not all that likely. 5yr old hardware? Forget it.

Re:Not a fan, but . . .

[Prior Restraint]

For the social gaming I prefer (i.e. multiplayer but not online) consoles are the only game in town.

Fair enough. I don't do that sort of thing too often, so that didn't occur to me.

I'll also agree with the blurring you mention, though sometimes the fuzziness gives me a headache.

In general, I don't have a preference one way or the other. On a lot of PC games, I can't see how one could get by without the keyboard (I don't recall if PS2's have a keyboard you can get; by that point, I might as well buy the PC version of the game).

Also, in the last year or two, I've seen a lot more in the way of buggy console games (Enter the Matrix is the obvious example), and I don't know that patching is easy (or even possible, for that matter).

Re:Not a fan, but . . .

[ElleyKitten]

It was used. I'ld love to see a store that had them new for $75. Or maybe not...

Anyways, that was $75 for a whole system, not just a video card. I can get video cards for 5 or 10 bucks too, but then I'm limited to Puzzle Master 4. And now I don't have to read tiny system requirements boxes, just look for the big words that say "Playstation 2". Besides, who wants to hunch over a tiny computer screen when they can lie down on the couch to play games?

Re:Not a fan, but . . .

[kisrael]

Woo, heated argument avoided.

I'll also agree with the blurring you mention, though sometimes the fuzziness gives me a headache.

Huh. Well, one of my main game buddies usually declines FPS on consoles, it might be the framerate....but I think it's just the framerates that emerge when its doing 4 way split screen, he does ok w/ 2 player co-op Halo (which might be a more powerful system anyway) and whole screen games I think, like Metroid.

It seems funny to me to think of a keyboard as a controller...it seems so big and clunky and old school in some ways, for everything but text. I mean, I can see where 101 or whatever unique buttons gives you some options...but again, from my multiplayer perspective, a keybaord for each guy would look a bit goofy.

The patching issue can be a problem. I mean Matrix is an extreme case, obviously rushed. But then stuff like SOCOM, cheaters w/ game sharks and just exploiting odd bugs in the game.

Re:Not a fan, but . . .

[ElleyKitten]

PS2s use a regular USB keyboard, by the way. As for control, some games are better with a keyboard and mouse (FPSs, Civ, etc.) while others (Final Fantasy, Tony Hawk, Dead or Alive Beach Vollyball) would be really hard and a lot less fun without a controller. I personally find controllers easier and more comfortable than keyboards and mice for games.

As for bugs, I rarely see any. Enter the Matrix was a terrible game, badly rushed and a horrible waste of money. Same with Tomb Raider Agel of Darkness, the other famous recent bug-fest. As for the good games, bugs are few and far between.

Re:Not a fan, but . . .

[Prior Restraint]

I'll see your "codswallop" and raise you a "piffle". My current hardware is as follows:

• Pentium III 550 MHz
• 256 MB RAM
• 20 GB HD (Windows partition is 3 GB)
• GeForce 2, AGP (don't recall the memory; 32MB or 64MB)
• Gaming OS: Windows 98 SE

Star Wars: Galaxies is the first game I've encountered that doesn't run at a decent frame rate (btw, TVs run at 60Hz, so that's what I assume you consider "decent"). It runs dog slow (usually <20fps), but it doesn't lock up or crash.

Again, I assert that the money people spend upgrading their hardware is more than is necessary to a decent gaming experience.

Finally, I suspect you're artificially narrowing the definition of "new games" to those which require bleeding edge hardware. Consider Runaway or Hearts of Iron. These games are fairly new and have rather modest hardware requirements. I buy new games all the time, and don't really find my gaming experience unacceptable.

Re:Not a fan, but . . .

[spir0]

no one offers Mac games anymore

you don't get out much do you? sure they offer LESS games on the mac, but usually it's the better ones... try www.macgamefiles.com and apple's game updates section

admittedly, I have a mac and several consoles dating back to the 80's, but I'm just that kind of guy.

Re:Not a fan, but . . .

[YomikoReadman]

Wow, looking at that, and seeing everything except your ram below reccomended specs, I'm surprised you can run it at all. I'm running 10X the system(which cost me $600 BTW) and it still lags, crashes and everything else. You must be a very lucky person.

• AMD Athlon XP 1800 640 MB Ram 13.5 GB HD - This is my Windows box, btw GeForce 4 MX 440, PCI, 64 MB Win XP

Re:Not a fan, but . . .

[incubusnb]

IMO, different games require different controllers.

when FF7 came out for PC, i bought it, installed it, played for 5 minutes and threw it out. Then i went and bough the PS version of it and enjoyed it. Final Fantasy was not meant to be played w/ a KB and Mouse

as well, a few weeks ago i played a PC Demo of Midnight Club 2, i walked away disgusted by the control scheme, while i loved the controls on my PS2.

at the same time, i can't stand Halo on my X-Box, and i can't stand most other FPSs because i need the feel of the Keyboard and the WASD layout. at the same time, i wouldv'e never played Goldeneye on s PC because it was a party game.

oh, and as for Patches, The X-Box's HD allows for Patching, hell, KOTOR is being patched with the same updates the PC Version is Getting. and next summer Sony is coming out with the HD for PS2, which will allow for patching.

in terms of Console V.S. PC, i'll take both and be a happy gamer

Re:Not a fan, but . . .

[Prior Restraint]

Anyways, that was $75 for a whole system, not just a video card.

Point taken. My point was that people always compare the cost of an old system to a new video card. It's just not fair.

I can get video cards for 5 or 10 bucks too, but then I'm limited to Puzzle Master 4.

I guess I carry more cash than you. ;-) Seriously, my GeForce 2 is quite nice, and didn't cost much at all.

And now I don't have to read tiny system requirements boxes, just look for the big words that say "Playstation 2".

Good point. It also makes buying gifts easier since you might not know the recipient's configuration.

Besides, who wants to hunch over a tiny computer screen when they can lie down on the couch to play games?

I don't know what sorts of games you play, but the ones I get are rarely sedate enough to allow me to lie down. Maybe I'm just the excitable type, but video games tend to get me worked up.

Re:Not a fan, but . . .

[Prior Restraint]

You must be a very lucky person.

I think that must be the case. Of course, since I use Linux most of the time, it's rare that I install anything on my Windows partition (except games, obviously). I suspect the fact that it's nearly empty is why I run into so few problems. No Office, no ISP software, no spyware, yada yada. Of course, Galaxies proves that I'm going to have to break down and upgrade soon anyway.

Re:Not a fan, but . . .

[ElleyKitten]

By "new", I'm talking about the popular stuff advertised in magazines and possibly TV (I don't know, I don't watch TV) that's been released in the past couple of months. The cool new stuff people want. I think that's a fair definition. On console, examples would be: Final Fantasy X-2, Tony Hawk Underground, Billy Hatcher (alright, I'm the only one that wants that one), Soul Calibur 2, etc. Obviously, a PS2 will cover all of them (except for Billy Hatcher, but we already decided that I'm the only one that wants it). Consider these popular new PC games: The Sims Making Magic, Civilization 3: Conquests, Final Fantasy XI, and Simpsons Hit in Run. After scouring the system requirements (source: Amazon ) I've discovered that of those 4, you can only play 2 of them. I don't know what types of games you play, but I'ld find it unacceptable to have to investigate every game before I buy it, or find out that if I want to play that cool new game, I have to upgrade my hardware for one game. And, unlike console games, if I don't pick it up now, I may never pick it up because PC games have a much shorter shelf life and no used market. I'll take my system of buying a console a year or two after it comes out for ~$100, and put off worry about not being able to play a new game for another 3 or 4 years.

Re:Not a fan, but . . .

[YomikoReadman]

lol, yea. Personally, stuff like galaxies, and lately FFXI do nothing but prove to me that DirectX is from the devil, and should be abolished. OpenGL should become the new standard, because then you could tailor the drivers to the game, and pack them with it. Much much better, IMO, and then I could go back to my beloved Mandrake 8.1, although RedHat Fedora looks very very sexy....

Re:Not a fan, but . . .

[ElleyKitten]

My point was that people always compare the cost of an old system to a new video card. It's just not fair.

I compared the old system to a new card because the old system can play all the new video games of this console generation (usually lasts about 5 years), whereas, no matter how nice your pretty GeForce2 is, it just won't play all the new games until 2006. By the way, how much did it cost you?

I don't know what sorts of games you play, but the ones I get are rarely sedate enough to allow me to lie down. Maybe I'm just the excitable type, but video games tend to get me worked up.

Mostly, I play Final Fantasies and the like. Basically, I play games instead of watching TV. They may also be why I like console games, they're an easier substitute for TV since I play them on the TV.

Re:Not a fan, but . . .

[Prior Restraint]

Okay, sounds reasonable, but... if you're waiting a year or two to buy the console, you're automatically foregoing the "new" games by default. The end outcome is the same as not upgrading PC hardware and sticking with StarCraft for another year.

(I guess it's not a point in my favor if I said I'd only be inclined to play two of those four games you listed, eh?)

Re:Not a fan, but . . .

[ElleyKitten]

if you're waiting a year or two to buy the console, you're automatically foregoing the "new" games by default

But console games have a used market, unlike PC, and so I can buy them later, for cheaper. Alright, that defeats the point of new, but whatever.

(And no, that's not a point in your favor. Ok, if you ignore the fact that I covered up my logic hole with a "whatever", you can have your point.)
=)

Re:Not a fan, but . . .

[Prior Restraint]

I don't recall off-hand, but I think the GeForce 2 was $40. My Voodoo3 up and died suddenly, and not surprisingly, replacements are hard to come by. I didn't want to wait, so I didn't bother comparison shopping (having an out-dated motherboard limited my choices severely).

I, too, insisted on getting away from TV, and getting a PS2 helped. I hadn't touched it in months, but finally got True Crime here a few days ago. Part of my problem is that my TV is smaller than my monitor. Perhaps that colors my opinion too much.

Re:Not a fan, but . . .

[Prior Restraint]

Actually, I'll just concede the whole thing on the basis of the used game market. I was just talking with a coworker a few days ago on this very problem. We both buy far more PC games than we have time to play, just on the theory that we'll get around to it "some day". Obviously, it's a sucking waste of money to buy games new if they'll be in the discount bin by the time we get around to installing them. Half the time, though, games we like (or assume we'll like) are commercial flops, so they're in the bin for all of a weekend before they vanish forever.

That forces us to be wa-a-ay too price conscious for something we'd prefer to buy on a whim, so... yeah, the PS2 is nice.

Re:Not a fan, but . . .

[ElleyKitten]

Yep, yep, convert to the dark side before you waste all your money! =)

Re:Not a fan, but . . .

[Anonymous Coward]

To bad you threw FF7PC out. You could have sold it today for quite a bit.

Besides, it may have sucked on PCs of the day, but on todays' machines, that game looks and sounds much better than the PSX version. NVidia card w/FSAA turned on & Yamaha audio w/XG MIDIs turned on make this game perfect on the PC, the better version by far. Buy a suitable controller or PSX controler adapter, and you're all set, plus you don't even have to swap discs or even play with them in the drive if you copy the movies to your HD and edit the registry to look for them there.

Re:Not a fan, but . . .

[Colazar]

Wow, all of a sudden my strategy is starting to look cost-effective.

I game on a Mac laptop. Since it's a laptop, I can't upgrade anything on it. So that costs me nothing! Since it's a Mac, all the games come out 3-6 months later than on a PC, so that extends the amount of time before it can't run the newest games! Plus, having already waited 6 months, it's easy to just wait another 3 till the game is marked down. So I save there too!

So all this time I thought I was being difficult, I was really just being thrifty. Who knew?

Re:Not a fan, but . . .

[BenjyD]

Because:

- Many console games aren't released for PC. Ever seen Zelda, Mario Kart, SSBM, or Viewtiful Joe on the PC? The list of excellent games that will never see the PC is huge.
- Because consoles are much easier. Buy game, put disk in, play. No patching, no updating drivers.
- Quality control is (mostly) better on console games. Look at the mess even big budget PC games like BF1942 are before the fifth patch or so.
- Consoles are cheap. 80UKP for a gamecube for example - that's less than my PC's processor cost.
Penny-Arcade had it right when they said if you're a gamer and you *don't* own a console, you're missing out. I game on a PC a lot, but I still use my gamecube.

Re:Not a fan, but . . .

[PainKilleR-CE]

Besides, it may have sucked on PCs of the day, but on todays' machines, that game looks and sounds much better than the PSX version. NVidia card w/FSAA turned on & Yamaha audio w/XG MIDIs turned on make this game perfect on the PC, the better version by far.

hmm when did they release a patch so that FFVII would work with an nVidia card? (It was, after all, a Glide-based game).

FFVIII had a patch that made it work, but the movies played upside down (and when characters were in the scene they were often right-side up, making it even more odd to play).

I agree that the graphics on the PC version of FF7 were superior, but the game only handled a limited subset of PC hardware well, and was basically a better experience on the PSOne. That being said, I still have both versions of both FF7 and FF8.

Re:Not a fan, but . . .

[PainKilleR-CE]

I just have to point out that, although I agree with you to a degree (I stopped upgrading video cards to buy consoles every 6 months instead), with the exception of the video card he listed, I had a better PC before I bought a PS1, and that exception is only because the GeForce 2 card is only a couple of years old. You'd be hard pressed, however, to find many games either out now or coming out soon that require more than a P3-1GHz, 256-512MB RAM, and a GeForce 2 (maybe even MX). My system hasn't had a single hardware upgrade in over a year and is running a GF4Ti, P4-2GHz, and 512MB of RAM. The last hardware upgrade was the video card, and the only reason I upgraded to the P4 was because my P3 self-destructed after moving across the country.

I used to be one of the guys that upgraded video cards every 6-12 months and many other portions of the system in the interim. At this point, though, the hardware has pushed well past the software, and the only reason I have all of the US-released consoles of this generation is simply because I didn't have any reason to buy new video cards, CPUs, etc. to play whatever games I feel like playing on the PC. I'd rather have the freedom to pick up any game and play it than be limited by system requirements, whether it's because I don't have a new graphics card or because I don't have an XBox (which is, in itself, a system requirement).

Re:Not a fan, but . . .

[PainKilleR-CE]

As an added bonus, with less than 25% of PC game titles actually being ported to the Mac, the savings by not being able to play 75% of the games released for the PC means you can actually afford a Mac (though I must admit that when it comes to laptops/notebooks, the Macs are competetive pricewise).

YOU FAILSED IT!! J00 SUX()RZSZS!!!

[Anonymous Coward]

nt

Re:YOU FAILSED IT!! J00 SUX()RZSZS!!!

[ChewBakaSan]

go f* yourself. it's not me that's slow, it's slashdot. they have rules on how long you have to wait before posting, and how many times you can post. " Slow Down Cowboy! Slashdot requires you to wait 20 seconds between hitting 'reply' and submitting a comment. It's been 17 seconds since you hit 'reply'!" "Slashdot requires you to wait 2 minutes between each successful posting of a comment to allow everyone a fair chance at posting a comment. It's been 1 minute since you last successfully posted a comment" See what I mean. By the way, I've gotten first post before, dude. It's not that hard.

Re:YOU FAILSED IT!! J00 SUX()RZSZS!!!

[Anonymous Coward]

J00 4R3 ST1LL A F41LJOOR!

Leaner times?

[Ondo]

This may mean leaner times before the next generation of console hardware debuts

Not really. Even the companies that don't lose money on their console sales aren't making a whole lot. Game sales are what is important, and the larger installed base should help those.

Re:Leaner times?

[kisrael]

Yeah, and frankly, the decline doesn't sound like that big a deal...I mean, from like 21 million to 20 million? Aw, shucks.

Re:Leaner times?

[simoniker]

But then again, if the amount of console software out there are still rising at a certain rate, but the hardware no longer increases at that rate, it still may be a problem - although I agree, not a cosmically bad situation.

Actually, I think more a problem toward the end of a console's life cycle is the amount of good quality older games available at budget prices, and the quick pricing-down of new titles because there's such a glut on the market. But this is probably separate of install-base.

Re:Leaner times?

[Ondo]

But then again, if the amount of console software out there are still rising at a certain rate, but the hardware no longer increases at that rate, it still may be a problem - although I agree, not a cosmically bad situation.

I don't think that's a problem at all. A game released in 2004 will have a larger potential audience than a game released in 2002 would. It doesn't have to only sell to someone who bought a console the same year.

Perhaps it's a problem because people with older consoles tend to buy less games, and perhaps increased competition hurts new games. Really it just comes down to speculation about how console sales affect the actually important statistic, video game sales. Wouldn't it be better just to see an analyst's prediction of that, instead of speculating about how a predicted console sales decline could affect it?

Re:Leaner times?

[WaKall]

There are so many good games out right now that by the time I can _get_ to the next great game I'm going to play, it's in the budget bin. There are also tons of BAD games, which compete for the low-price sales.

Maybe it's because we have THREE top-notch consoles now, instead of two? The console companies are splitting three ways right now, moreso now that Xbox sales have tapered off and GCN sales have jumped a lot recently. Compare to three years ago, when it was just Nintendo and Sony with Sega as a failing and distant third.

And finally, emulation andn classic games are really good now. I play a lot of classic games on PSX that I pick up in bargain bins, as well as emulated SNES/NES games. They're cheap, they're good, and I can play some of them on my GBA, others on my PS2. Contrast this to SNES/early PSX era, when emulation was still young and most people didn't have broadband.

I'd really like for the market to bear 3 console vendors, but I'm afraid someone will get driven out or be forced into a niche (hello, Nintendo!). I'd be happy to buy into that niche if it were Nintendo.

Re:Leaner times?

[GTRacer]

...if the amount of console software out there are still rising at a certain rate, but the hardware no longer increases at that rate, it still may be a problem

Why? Do you mean in the Atari 2600-E.T. sense of too many games for the userbase? If so, remember there's over 60 million PS2's out there. Even given a 50% failure rate that leaves a worldwide userbase of over 30 million consoles.

And since others keep mentioning it, Sony should be making money on each PS2 by now. Last informed report had them past break-even on the R&D and fab plants early this year. And they keep trimming them down and have moved some production to China. I don't think Nintendo cares what we do, and Microsoft still has deep pockets (and Live!)

So basically, Sony wins EVERY time that register ka-chings, unless it's for a used item.

GTRacer
- Will soon have GC, maybe XBX, might preorder import PSP if I have the $$$

Re:Leaner times?

[PainKilleR-CE]

I mean, from like 21 million to 20 million?

And with those kinds of numbers, there's still plenty of room for movement in the market share of the three consoles. If Sony's sales drop by 2-3 million and the other 2 consoles pick up a portion of the 2 million left then there could be plenty of room for the Cube to take #2 in total sales, for instance. 4th quarter sales of PS2s are expected to be down 2 million anyway, and their shipments have been down ~40%, so it's very likely that PS2 sales could slip by as much as 8 million or more over the course of the next year, and that the Cube and XBox will pick up a lot of those sales (to people buying a 2nd or 3rd console).

1991

[ElleyKitten]

Super Nintendo had some of the best games ever. Illusion of Gaia, Final Fantasy 3(6), Super Mario All-Stars + Super Mario World...Not to mention the Super Scope. Shooting your TV with a bazooka is just... ok, retarded. I'm done now.

Re:1991

[ElleyKitten]

The parent of this wasn't as random as it looks, but the parent of that was lost since it was a troll. So read that first! Or just ignore this in general since it's not important anyways

Re:1991

[BTWR]

If I recall correctly, I'm pretty sure that SNES having Street Fighter 2 as an exclusive (for a while) sold like 1 million SNES console sales.

Re:1991

[shione]

Can't have a SNES list without mentioning Secret of Mana, Street Fighter 2 Turbo, Mortal Kombat 2, Star Wing, And the Super Star Wars Series can we? :-)

^_^

Re:1991

[ElleyKitten]

I'm all mad I missed Secret of Mana back in the day. But, I hear Square's remaking it along with FF3 (the japanese one, the last one that hasn't been released in the US) for the next Final Fantasy collecter's set. So I still have hope. =)

I wish they'ld remake the Enix games that never got to America, like Star Ocean and Terranigma. Oh well.

Re:1991

[Chris Mattern]

SNES was the first console I ever owned. Street Fighter 2 was the reason I bought it.

Chris Mattern

Re:1991

[shione]

I missed out on Secret of Mana back in the day too. It was only when I saw it at a pawn shop recently that I jumped on it. Another time, I had the opportunity to get Terranigma but it was cart only so I passed on it. Now so sure it that was the wisest of decision to make now that I think back on it. ;-)

I'm pretty sure Star Ocean came out here too in Australia.
Don't get the wrong impression from my post that was get more RPGs than you do though, we missed out on Xenosaga, Lunar 1 + 2, Valkrie Profile, Thousand Arms , Xenogears.. lol the list goes on..

I'll gladly have those for the others ^_^

Re:1991

[ElleyKitten]

Japanese people are mean. They should send us more games. =)

Is there any particular reason to listen to this?

[Snowmit]

Who are these guys? Do they speak with any authority on this subject? I read the article and as far as I can tell they're a bunch of financial analysts. Do they have a history of predicting this kind of thing accurately? Is there any reason to listen to these predictions?

10% decline?

[(trb001)]

I suppose a 10% decline is quite steep, but considering the console itself isn't the money maker for the companies, aren't they still expecting huge profits? Consider...if each console owner purchases 1 game per year, with sales as they are you're talking about an increase of ~20 million games per year. This compounds each year of the consoles' "life" such that after 5 years worth of sales like this, you'd be expecting 100 million games sold per year, with a yearly increase in the number of sales. That seems like a decent profit margin.

--trb

Will Prices Rise?

[ChewBakaSan]

How is this going to affect the next line of consoles? Will it cause the prices to be much higher? Will the number of consoles to be made drop?

feh.

[Anonymous Coward]

This anonymous analyst predicts that the number of industry analysts peak in stupidity has yet to be reached. Critical mass expected in 2012 when Gartner gets bought out by Microsoft and Illumanti purchased by Intel. The rest are gobbled up by Faux News and King Supreme, George W. Bush and Prince Supreme, John Ashcroft.

Afterglow

[BeProf]

In other news...

The major console companies all had a post-peak cigarette today. Nintendo was quoted as saying, "Hold me."

Unfortunatly, the lovefest came to a quick end when Sony and Microsoft got into a fight over who would have to sleep in the wet spot.

Re:Afterglow

[ChewBakaSan]

LOL That's pretty funny. If I was Microsoft, I'd be sitting in a corner sucking my thumb and hoping that Sony dosen't bowl me over with their greatness.

finally

[s33l3t]

now ill go buy a game cube, play it for a week and then go back to playing the classic zelda. new games are fun, but the classics never die

Re:finally

[Anonymous Coward]

If you buy a new gamecube now, you can get classic zelda with it.

https://www.nintendo.com/cpp/zeldaclassic/index. js p

Some NextGen speculation...

[peregrin641]

It was announced today that IBM will be making processors for Nintendo's next generation console. So that means IBM will be involved in developing the processors for all 3 next-gen consoles. Sony obviously has its own thing with the Cell processor, but what about Nintendo and Microsoft. Is it possible that they have basically decided to team up (against Sony)? It is possible that they will both use a PowerPC-type processor on their next console, as well as an ATI graphics core. Could it be that a) they are going to develop one XBox/Nintendo console, or b) that they will make their hardware so similar that porting a game from one to the other would be child's play? Option a) seems very intriguing to me. There would be no question that I would get the XBox/Nintendo console over the PS3-- especially if I could play both Gamecube and XBox games on it.

Also, in an interview with Denis Dyack of Silicon Knights, he said "...it wouldn't surprise me if sometime in the future there is a collaboration [between console makers]. It doesn't mean that there's a less-competitive environment, but it would mean that everyone could worry about making good content instead of the technology. And I think that would be a huge positive shift for our industry." Denis Dyack is very close with Shigeru Miyamoto, and is likely to have some insight and input on Nintendo's plans for the next generation.

What does everybody else think?

Re:Some NextGen speculation...

[Planesdragon]

What does everybody else think?

MS buying out Nintendo of America, dropping the X-box, and selling a Nintendo-branded (or Nintendo-variant) console?

Yeah, I could see that. And I would probably pick one up, too.

Re:Some NextGen speculation...

[Anonymous Coward]

That is ridiculous

Re:Some NextGen speculation...

[zeasier]

The only way consolidated hardware would work for the console industry would be if there was more than one hardware provider. There should be serveral more or less identicle systems that all run the same game software. Otherwise who ever controls the hardware will control prices and we'll end up with 80 dollar games like back when Nintendo was in power. (Although that involved other factors as well.) If two of the big three team up that won't change much in the industy. It would just make the market for games on that system larger. The larger the market the more profits will be gained from that market. This translates to a more conservitive developer because more money will be invested in games raising barriers to entry. We'll end up with the same troubles we have now.

If we want to focus on supporting content we'll need a more liberal system so developers can profit from making smaller games for nitch markets. That way good ideas have room to grow before they require a large investment. Would take a while to explain such a system so I'll just post a link hinting at similar market. Newgrounds

Re:Some NextGen speculation...

[Anonymous Coward]

They tried this... remember the 3do?

It tanked!

Re:Some NextGen speculation...

[shione]

Didn't ms already try that? Nintendo basically told them to pound sand and ms went head-bowed on to build the xbox. I don't think they'll risk embaressing themselves again by trying again.

Re:Some NextGen speculation...

[ajservo]

That's about the only damn way I'd buy a MS console. I bought and returned an xbox in a day, because the games were just REALLY lackluster.

I own the nintendo because nintendo makes games.

When microsoft figures out that when you make games, and make them good, you sell to a dedicated fanbase, who unquestioningly buys them for the 1st party content.

Xbox is having to fight it out with Sony over 3rd party stuff, and thinks themselves content with it's sales. I find the sales to be really poor. When you consider the sales from the point of view of 3rd party relied sales VS the Nintendo "audience" there's no question that Nintendo has it going on. They may be 3rd, but they've got a built in audience with their games. Xbox is strutting because they're over Nintendo, who's dealing with a totally different base anyway.\

Re:Some NextGen speculation...

[Anonymous Coward]

Just a minor correction to a point you made.

Yes, Nintendo is in third place, but only behind themselves, because they are also in second place. Sony places first and Microsoft places fourth.

In terms of total systems sold worldwide (current system generation only):

1. Sony Playstation 2 (60 million)
2. Nintendo GameBoy Advance (42 million)
3. Nintendo GameCube (10.5 million)
4. Microsoft Xbox (10 million)

Software sells hardware...

[JavaLord]

One thing to keep in mind is that software (In this case games) sells hardware. So you could see a spike in hardware sales if a killer game comes out for one system and not on the others. Say the "best game ever" comes out on x-box next year. Sure, there are some die hard ps2/gamecube fanboys, but plenty of them would buy a ps2 just to play the "best game ever".

The Cross platform releases are what keep hardware sales down, (good) exclusive titles should make console sales go up.

Re:Software sells hardware...

[Shadarr]

I think a lot of it may have to do with PS2 market saturation. There are so many PS2s in living rooms around the world that even if the next must-have game comes out for PS2, there aren't that many people who want one and don't already have one.

GC and XBox could see a spike, but it would probably get swallowed up by the overall decline in PS2 sales. This is talking about the market, after all. Nintendo and MS could easily have a banner year in 2004 while the total consoles sold goes down.

Consolidation is needed for consoles

[mrshowtime]

Funny thing is, I think that Half Life 2 will be a major selling point for the next gen game systems. No current game system can produce graphics as good as HL2 (or Doom3). Not saying that these titles will even be availble for the next gen systems, but they do both show how aged the current technology is. Take for instance Max Payne 2. Fucking Amazing looking game, the difference between MP1 and MP2 is striking and it even isn't a true "next gen" title. It will take a lot to dislodge people from their current PS2s as the graphics are good enough. From the specs of the Ps3 I am certain it will be enough to make the PS2 look woefully inferior. Lastly, the price won't matter either. People paid $299 for the PS2 when it came out and will pay $299 when the PS3 comes out. An alliance between M$ and Nintendo would really make a lot of sense for both companies as I am sure both of them realize that there can be only two systems in the end.

Re:Consolidation is needed for consoles

[bigman2003]

Well, you could wait for the next generation systems to run Half Life 2, OR- you could just run it on an Xbox. http://www.gamespot.com/xbox/action/halflife2/

While you are at it, you can also play Doom 3 on the Xbox http://www.gamespot.com/pc/action/doom3/news_60745 03.html

Both of these are in the future, but I believe the releases are going to be very close the to the PC release dates.

An odd report

[edwdig]

Every mention of sales so far this year says that year-to-date sales of consoles are lower than they were last year. GameCube sales are up, but that's not enough to counter a large drop in PS2 sales combined with a small drop in Xbox sales.

Check Nintendo's recent press releases. I think the PS2 year-to-date sales are down 17%, Xbox 5%, and the GameCube up a few percent or so.

Looks like 2002 might've been the peak, unless something unexpected happens next year to drive up sales.

Spring 2003...

[MMaestro]

Hmmm... lets think what happened around the time of Spring of 2003?

The Gamecube was unloading with Zelda, Metroid Prime, and Mario Sunshine (which wasn't that great, but the name alone sold it)
The PS2 was going insane trying to counter the Xbox's online advantage and cranking out/announcing more games to the Greatest Hits list
The Xbox was... well... being itself.

I'm not surprised that Spring 2003 was a high point in the video game console market, but to say the market will suffer from a decline now is both really not saying much and really not doing your research.

On the PC side, they have Half-Life 2 and Doom 3 coming out. That alone is going to eat gamers' time up like MMOGs. Hence the decline.

On the other hand, consoles have MGS:Twin Snakes, Fable, Halo 2, and MGS3. Talk about not expecting big name games.

Depending on how you want to look at it (will Half-Life 2 and Doom 3 be able to go up against Halo 2 and MGS3?) there isn't really much indication that the console market will really go down.

Smurfs!!!

[ElleyKitten]

I have a mac and several consoles dating back to the 80's

Smurfs for Atari 2600 is a sweet game.

Re:Smurfs!!!

[spir0]

I said the 80's, not the 1600's... ;)

Re:Smurfs!!!

[shione]

There;s a smurfs game on the PSone. It was a nice rental. short but fun.

halo2

[Anonymous Coward]

alone will sell 10mil xboxes.

Re:halo2

[bigman2003]

Okay- I admit to being an Xbox fanboy, but I need to disagree with this.

Halo 2 probably won't even sell 10 million copies. And, most of those copies will be sold to people who already own Halo. Who would probably also own an Xbox already.

Halo 2 might sell Xboxes, but not a ton. A lot of the PC crowd just doesn't understand how a first person shooter can work on a console. Also, they have Halo on the PC, and I guess it wasn't that hot- so not a lot of people are going to feel that left out of the Halo 2 craze.

Voodoo

[ElleyKitten]

A few years back, I bought a Voodoo5 for my boyfiend at the time because he really really wanted it. Cost me $250, which, if you recall my comment about carrying $5 or $10, is a lot for me. Not 6 months later he was complaining because, since NVidia took over the video card market, his new games didn't like the overpriced card I gave him. I probably should have taken it out of his computer when I left him. Perhaps that colors my opinion.

Re:Voodoo

[Anonymous Coward]

What the....? You buy computer hardware as gifts for your boyfiends?

Voodoo 5? Hmm, you could have gotten a Dreamcast cheaply around that time, and your boyfiend might not have whined so much.

Man, if I had a girlfiend that bought me hardware, that would be so sweet. Console hardware, that is.

Oh well, I don't have a girlfiend like that. But I guess I'm lucky to have good fiends that are willing to let me have their hand-me-down game systems, since I'm such a cheapskate. Girlfiends come and go, but true fiends are fiends forever.

Re:Voodoo

[ElleyKitten]

You buy computer hardware as gifts for your boyfiends?

Bought. As in once.

Re:Voodoo

[Anonymous Coward]

Still, a hardware gift for a boyfiend is pretty significant and very thoughtful. Noteably so.

Sorry if I made it sound like I thought it was a regular thing for you to buy hardware for your boyfiends all the time. I don't make a habit of going spend-crazy on my girlfiends either.

Re:Voodoo

[bigman2003]

Either the 'r' key is busted on your computer, or you know a lot of freaks...or feaks...

Re:Voodoo

[Anonymous Coward]

*WHOOSH* x 12

That is the sound of the joke passing over ElleyKitten's head twelvve times (she quotes me once), as well as your own head at least eight times. It was her typo to begin with, after all.

Pat yourselves on the back, geniuses. My work here is done.

pwn3d by an AC.

Re:Voodoo

[PainKilleR-CE]

This is actually why my girlfriend won't buy me hardware, as she knows just enough about computers to know I'll just want something else in a few months.

On the other hand, I don't know anyone that wanted a Voodoo 5, since nVidia had taken over the market before the thing finally came out.

Personally, the only hardware gifts I've ever given have been hand-me-downs, and those people tended to appreciate it more because my old hardware was a significant upgrade to their old hardware, and since they kept hardware much longer than I did, they got much more use from it (often more than I did before I gave it to them). My dad, for instance, still uses a video card and sound card that I gave him for father's day 3 years ago (I installed the hardware in his system while he was gone for the weekend and then gave him the sound card's box with his old hardware in it).

As for the other poster, I used to have a TV smaller than my monitor, and, at the time, simply waited until VGA adapters were available for the console(s). This is actually why I got a PS2 before I got an XBox (and why I waited so long for a PS2 that I had to choose between the two), and why I feel that the DreamCast is at least on par with, if not better than, any other console of the generation in terms of hardware (hell, the VGA adapter I got for the DreamCast was the best one I've ever used). Since I got a bigger TV, though, I've definitely spent far more time playing console games.

dammit

[deus_X_machina]

So, uhh, basically what they're saying is in about a year i'm going to have to purchase a Playstation 3, a Gamecircle, an XBox2, and upgrade my graphics card/processor to keep current with the video game market.

Between owning 3 PCs, an Atari 2600/7800, NES, SNES, Genesis, SegaCD, Dreamcast, a PS, PS2, a Gamecube, and tons and tons of games over the last few years, I can honestly say this hobby is more expensive than a crack addiction...

Re:dammit

[Shadarr]

I'd be very surprised if a new console is out before Christmas 2005, and more likely 2006. Microsoft may try to jump the gun a bit but otherwise, we've been mostly on a 5 year schedule. For one thing, in order for a new system to have launch titles they pretty much have to firm up the hardware specs a year and a half before launch, to give the devs time to get a game together. So no, you won't have to buy anything more for a while. Which means you have about an extra $1000 to spend on games, rather than systems. Woot!

Re:dammit

[Anonymous Coward]

You're breaking my heart. I've got an idea... start up your own company and provide a console that updates itself while maintaining compatibility with older games while still being cheap. You'd make a killing... for a while. What you don't seem to understand is that the big companies like MS, Nintendo, and Sony rely on the technology they release becoming obsolete.

If a lightbulb came out that lasted forever, the lightbulb industry would collapse. Similar situation here.

Rebuys

[Oriumpor]

WHY would you rebuy a console you say? Why not fix it yourself? FOR INSTANCE, the PS2 issue with the LASER being a bit OFF after a few hundred uses. I have personally experienced this, twice. But since i have a library of about 50 games (PS1/PS2) that I enjoy, I'm not about to waste those purchases by waiting for a PS3 to come out, SINCE I purchased a refurb (as oft I do) and I hadn't discovered the issue with the Laser yet, I just boxed my old PS2 back in it's original box, put it in the attic and went out and purchased a full waranty PS2.

I probably should have had the first one repaired, but I was in the general lazy mood I get when thinking about consoles in general. After a particularly long day the last thing I want to do is fight with a screw casing, or a small hex screwdriver to get a stupid laser aligned.

This tax on laziness, probably will sell an additional several hundred units, if only cause the average consumer isn't even going to think of having their console repaired.

Dunno about that...

[Anonymous Coward]

Today I was in an Orange County CA GameStop and the manager was talking about how another store in the district had over 400 preorders for Halo 2 and that many were over 200... He was upset that his store only had a little over a hundred. Now, I am not the smartest man in the world but it seems that if Halo 2 has this many preorders in one county with several months to go until launch date, saying that Halo 2 will sell less than 10 million copies is a little short-sighted. I think that the game will indeed move Xboxes and a lot of people with Xboxes and no Halo (Such as myself; I bought it for KOTOR) will pick up Halo 2.

Re:Dunno about that...

[Anonymous Coward]

Buddy, you're nuts. Whackjob 5000.

Currently, there are barely even 10 million Xboxes in existence around the world, including those still waiting unsold in warehouses. Is EVERY xbox owner going to own Halo 2?

If you think Halo 2 will push 10 million, you are not in touch with reality. Not by a long shot. You are assuming that it will sell better than Final Fantasy 7, Final Fantasy 10, and Dragon Quest 7 combined. You are expecting it to be the best selling game ever, three times as as popular as the original Super Mario Bros. 3 for the NES. Even the first Halo, to this day, can barely even match any single one of these games individually in terms of sales, barely beating only Final Fantasy X. Whatever your xbox fanboy ass wants to believe, it just isn't going to happen.

Re:Dunno about that...

[bigman2003]

So there are 700 pre-orders in a county that has about 1% of the population of the United States.

That means we might expect that there are 70,000 pre-orders out there.

Orange County is one of the wealthier counties in the country, so possibly the results are skewed.

(Actually, my numbers are meaningless...but I wanted to point out that 700 pre orders really does not translate to 10 million copies sold, or even less likely, 10 million Xboxes sold)

Re:Dunno about that...

[PainKilleR-CE]

You are expecting it to be the best selling game ever, three times as as popular as the original Super Mario Bros. 3 for the NES.

Not quite. Yes, 10 million is pushing it, as that is roughly 1 copy for each owner of an XBox, and more than 4 times the number of copies of Halo sold for the XBox, but it's slightly more than half the number of copies of SMB3 for the NES sold, and 1/4th the number of copies of SMB1 for the NES sold. 10 Million would tie with The Sims and SMB2, taking it to anywhere from 7th to 9th on the best selling games of all time, beating down Vice City to #10 and dropping a PS1 Harry Potter game out of the top 10. Of course, this would knock Dragon Warrior VII off the top 20.

10 million would not beat FF7 and DW7 combined, or even FFX and DW7 combined, even though FFX sold slightly more than half as many copies as FF7. Halo sold roughly half as many copies as FFX.

Of course, the other things to remember are that:
- The number of XBox owners is now significantly higher than it was when Halo was released, and since Halo is 2 years old and still remains at $50 (though it should come down soon), it hasn't been open to the full audience of XBox owners
- Pre-order numbers are always larger than the actual sales to pre-order customers, and most game stores rely on this (by only buying enough copies to cover pre-orders, then putting the rest on the shelves)
- Sales numbers are sometimes hard to track down properly, as different sources will give different numbers. For instance, Nintendo may have sold as many as 80 million copies of SMB1, but only(!) 40 million were sold to end-users.

Yay! So when...

[ajservo]

Is the console "dick swinging" going to end and the REALLY good console games come out?

Some of the best console titles end up being mid - late gen games to the console.

FFVII-IX, Syphon Filter, MGS; Shenmue, surely others I've missed, it seems that truly innovative titles hit a console late in it's development cycle.

This sort of news means only one thing ...

[Carch]

The financial analysts behind these "revelations" have sold video game interests short. These prognosticators are no better at telling the future than Miss Cleo. Remember, analysts are the folks responsible for encouraging millions of Americans to invest and lose billions in tech stocks. Funny thing about the future ... it hasn't happened yet. Makes it hard to say what happens there!