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Decoding the Algorithm for Pop Music

fb4f writes "Over at Modplug, they have an article describing a mathematical algorithm to predict if a given song will become a hit or not. Paraphrasing the article, a Spanish company called Polyphonic HMI has made a business out of analyzing song submissions and predicting their "hitability". Here's their description of the algorithm and here's their FAQ. They claim to have predicted the commercial success of Norah Jones through this method. Here's my question (which is not fully answered in their FAQ): if they (music company executives) are currently using the algorithm to screen submissions for their "hitability", can we (people who listen to music) use the same algorithm to reject recycled tunes and encourage originality? I for one, still like the fresh talent and community feel of the tracking scene."

5 of 353 comments (clear)

  1. Dupe. by Bootsy+Collins · · Score: 5, Informative

    Well, I don't know how to tell what songs will be popular. But, obviously, this topic is popular.

  2. Re:Star success? by JayBlalock · · Score: 4, Informative
    And just to add an interesting bit of trivia, a lot of people don't know she's the until-recently-estranged daughter of world-famous Indian musician Ravi Shankar.

    (And if you don't know THAT name, he was the guy who introduced The Beatles to the sitar.)

    --
    Bush: He's Liberal in all the wrong ways.
  3. WARNING - CHILD PORN by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

    Parent appears to link to child pornography [ pedophila paedophilia ].

    Moderators???

  4. balancing on a rope by pohl · · Score: 2, Informative

    I used to complain about the recycling of musical ideas up until the point where I engaged in a serious study of the theory of harmony.

    It turns out that there just aren't that many ways that you can assemble the harmonic building blocks of music (in mere structural terms, that is -- the treatment of the structure is where the real variety goes). What I mean is that we have to live with the cycle of fifths, and the strong progressions that happen between chords rooted on tones that are adjacent in the cycle. Why? Because the root tones of the chords in your "key" all happen to be adjacent along the circle, as are the remaining 5 out of 12 tones that are not in your key.

    The I (roman numeral one) chord has the IV chord on one side, and the V chord on the other. There's your basis for rock and blues.

    On the far side of the V chord (from the I) lies the ii chord (lower-case roman numeral, denoting a minor chord). There lies your basis for jazz: the ii V I progression.

    And the longest, strongest progression that contains all of the diatonic chords: IV vii iii vi ii V I (473-6251). They're all in a line along the cycle of fiths, except between the 4 and the 7, where we hide the "seam" left by restricting ourselves to the diatonic tones.

    And why restrict ourselves to the diatonic system? Well, it turns out that the diatonic major scale is unique in that it can be constructed by a simple algorithm, starting with one of the 12 tones (adding to the scale as you go) and proceeding up a perfect fifth (modulo 12) until there are no more gaps left that are larger than a "whole step" (two half-steps). This is a very special scale and it amazes me how early in human history it was discovered. It's no wonder the monks thought it was god's own scale.

    And don't even get me started on the golden ratio as it appears in musical architecture.

    Of course music gets recycled. Deal with it.

    --

    The "cue the foo posts in 3, 2, 1..." posts will commence with no subsequent foo posts in 3, 2, 1...

  5. Re:DaVinci's Notebook - Title of the Song by Lady+Jazzica · · Score: 2, Informative

    Da Vinci's Notebook has a little clip of this song on their website, if you want to hear what it sounds like: here.