Nine Crazy Ideas in Science

doom writes "The general concept of Robert Ehrlich's book is absolutely superb: Nine Crazy Ideas in Science: A Few Might Even Be True. Here, someone with a technical background (Ehrlich is a physics prof at George Mason) and an open mind investigates in detail a number of 'crazy' ideas, to see if there's anything to them. The execution of the idea is not quite as superb, but Robert Ehrlich has done better at this difficult job than anyone else I know of. This book is highly recommend as a good review of the evidence on some scientific controversies." Read on for doom's review, in which he goes through Erlich's nine-part list, but mind the spoilers. Nine Crazy Ideas in Science: A Few Might Even Be True author Robert Ehrlich pages 244 publisher Princeton University Press rating Great idea, very good execution reviewer doom ISBN 0691070016 summary A scientist evaluates some "crazy ideas"

Here's the deck of nine ideas under consideration:

• More Guns Mean Less Crime
• AIDS is Not Caused by HIV
• Sun Exposure is Beneficial
• Low Doses of Nuclear Radiation Are Beneficial
• The Solar System Has Two Suns
• Oil, Coal, and Gas Have Abiogenic Origins
• Time Travel is Possible
• Faster-than-Light Particles Exist
• There Was No Big Bang

The game here is that Ehrlich is not telling you in advance what his conclusions were. He says he's tried to keep an open mind, and claims that during his investigations he actually changed his mind about some things (though he never says about what exactly).

So in this review I'm going to give you generalities first, and bury "the butler did it" type information after a SPOILER warning.

One of the problems with the execution of this work is that you can pretty often tell when Ehrlich is enthusiastic about an idea just from his general tone as he writes about it... and conversely, in retrospect I think I should've been able to spot when he disagreed with, because the writing in those chapters was a little confusing.

Part of his schtick is that at the end of each chapter he rates the idea on a scale of 0 to 4 "cuckoos". Oddly enough I often find that I strongly disagree with his cuckoo ratings even just based on the evidence that he presents. But the absolute magnitude of my disagreements are typically no more than a single "cuckoo".

I was worried about some of his evaluation criteria (see the introduction available on-line as a sample chapter), because he includes several points that strike me as fairly dicey: "Who proposed the idea?"; "How attached is the proposer to the idea?" and "Does the proposer have an agenda?" These all relate to judging the person rather than the idea itself. (Consider that "consider the source" and "ad hominem argument" are pretty much the same as far as logic goes.) But he does clearly understand that these are just rules of thumb, and I note with some amusement that he doesn't resort to these particular rules anywhere in the later chapters. He's more interested in the logic of the arguments, which is as it should be.

I could bring up lots of quibbles (and I probably will after the spoiler warning), but overall I found this to be a great breezy read. I learned quite a bit from it. While nothing here made me do a reversal of my beliefs, I was often surprised that the evidence for something was stronger or weaker than I'd supposed.

Here we have an educated, astute, person doing a relatively independent review of some controversial, interesting technical subjects. Why aren't there more books like this?

Ah, but at least there's one more! I see that a sequel has just come out: Eight Preposterous Propositions: From the Genetics of Homosexuality to the Benefits of Global Warming . I bet I'll be submitting a review on that one shortly ...

Anyway, now into the nitty gritty. Here's your SPOILER WARNING. Skip the following if you want to play the "guess where he's going" game with this book. Let's take it chapter by chapter:

More Guns Mean Less Crime

I'm a "right to bear arms" kind of guy myself, and I was surprised that the data doesn't seem to support private ownership of guns as a crime deterrent. Ehrlich argues persuasively that the statistical evidence for this is very weak. I appreciate the fact that Ehrlich concludes that both the pro and anti gun sides are nuts: he rates them 3 and 2 "cuckoos" respectively, where a 3 is "almost certainly not true" and 2 is "very likely not true."

But here, we come to my first strong disagreement with him. If the effects aren't strong enough to measure, why the asymmetry in the "cuckoo" rating for the pro and anti side? I might rate them both at a 2 myself.

AIDS is Not Caused by HIV

I've had the impression that the the Duesberg hypothesis was pretty screwy, but I was willing to tentatively consider it might have something of value. For example, what about the possibility that multiple diseases are now being diagnosed incorrectly as one single syndrome "HIV"?

But Ehrlich's analysis satisfies me that there's not much of scientific value in Duesberg's ideas at all. I don't argue with his 3 cuckoo rating (but I wouldn't blame you if you thought it deserved the full 4).

Sun Exposure is Beneficial

Ehrlich concludes that this looks fairly plausible, and gives it a 0 cuckoo rating, pretty much as I would have expected. Many people might find this surprising though, certainly the popular impression these days seems to be that sunlight is deadly.

Low Doses of Nuclear Radiation Are Beneficial

Here, Ehrlich lays out the case for "radiation hormesis", and I really don't think this is that fantastic a notion (the difference between a poison and a medicine is often a matter of dosage, why wouldn't this be true of radiation?). But radiation is so demonized in the popular imagination that "radiation is good for you" comes off an insane joke. Ehrlich takes it seriously, and essentially concludes that while there are reasons for suspecting that this effect exists, it hasn't been entirely established. And here we have one of my quibbles: he awards it 1 cuckoo, which translates to "probably not true, but who knows". But there is no reason for saying it's probably not true. If something is not crazy, just not established, I would be inclined to award it "0 cuckoos," aka "Why not?"

The Solar System Has Two Suns

This is the "Nemesis" hypothesis, which it will probably come as no surprise is rated at 2 cuckoos. The short version of the story: originally they looked at part of the extinction record, and it looked like there was a definite cycle. But if you look at the whole record it doesn't seem to be there.

Oil, Coal, and Gas Have Abiogenic Origins

This is subject that's been of some interest to me, ever since I heard Thomas Gold give a talk on this idea about a decade ago. It turns out that this is now looking much less like "an intriguing possibility" and much more like a truth awaiting a few funerals before it will be declared established. The odds are good that "fossil fuels" don't actually come from fossils, rather they're from hydrocarbons that pre-existed the formation of the earth, which means we're probably not going to run out of them. (So that means we can ignore those environmental wackos, right? Nope: imagine what happens to the atmosphere if we keep ramping up the rate at which we burn this stuff.)

Ehrlich rates this at 0 cuckoos, but maybe he should have invented a "-1 cuckoo" for this one.

Time Travel is Possible

2 cuckoos: no surprises.

Faster-than-Light Particles Exist

Ehrlich mentions in his introduction in the interests of "full disclosure" that he's actually strongly attached to one of the ideas discussed here (the existence of tachyons), but by the time I'd gotten to that chapter I'd entirely forgotten about this, and I was disappointed to realize that he was being an advocate, not an independent reviewer (it includes a picture of him wearing a "no tardy-centrism" T-shirt).

Ehrlich rates this at 0 cuckoos, but come on. Even just based on the write-up he presents, it's a clear 1 cuckoo.

There Was No Big Bang

Clocks in at 3 cuckoos, as you might expect.

You can purchase Nine Crazy Ideas in Science: A Few Might Even Be True from bn.com. Slashdot welcomes readers' book reviews -- to see your own review here, read the book review guidelines, then visit the submission page.

Comments

Crazy Ideas?

[IANAL(BIAILS)]

God smod - I want my monkey man!

Where does the 2nd amendment say...

[Anonymous Coward]

...anything about crime rate? The right to bear arms is granted without regard to the crime rate.

Re: funniest troll ever.

[Anonymous Coward]

This has to be the funniest troll ever posted to Slashdot. Ever.

Re: showcased : spineless shit moderation on /.

[Anonymous Coward]

this was funny. moderated down in the prime of its life.

This is just another example of spineless crap moderation here on /.

Mao Tse Tung, Hitler, Stalin, Castro, Pinochet, Mussolini, Marshall Joseph Tito, Slobodan Milosevic, Idi Amin, Ho Chi Minh, Saddam Hussein, Muammar Qaddafi, Juan Peron, Ayatollah Khomeini, Ferdinand Marcos, General Suharto, Pol Pot, Fransisco Franco, and certainly the worst of the bunch, SLASHDOT's editing/moderating [read: censoring] "community"(*) ALL AGREE on ONE THING:

CENSORSHIP WORKS!

(*)Note, the word community used often on Slashdot, this is referring to a proto communist commune.

So, you busy little plebian proletariats, get busy, you have some censoring to do! FUN! Do the bidding of your fat, undisciplined masters who never subject themselves to peer review!

Good job you little neo-commies. Don't want to hear the other side, shoot the fucker in the head as an ENEMY OF THE STATE [In this case anyone who seeks to improve the sad state of/.].

A few haikus to commemorate the sucktitude:
Crack Pipe Moderators
Crack smoke wafts though air
Dumb shit moderator!
Try to suck less, please

The Humorless Moderator
Crack smoke wafts through air
Humorless moderator!
Why do you hate me?

The Proletariat
Slashdotting Commie
Moderator fears new idea!
Censor him quickly

The reason China blocked Slashdot is that when Jiang Xemin saw at how good "The Editors" at Slashdot are at suppressing the community, he knew that if more of his party members saw this degree of suppressive efficacy, he would be deposed, for the good of the people, of course, in favor of Rob Malda as the all new supreme dictator and premier of China.

It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried. - Sir Winston Churchill (Especially when your democratic peers twist democracy into a reason commit censorship, to squash dissenting or unpopular opinions, and refer to them as trolls, flaimbait overrated or offtopic when they aren't any of the said)

Reading Slashdot at anything above -1 is like trying to put a shit filter on your ass.

Get busy moderating this down, you little pack of obedient prefects of the corrupt state! You are the vanguards of purity, and dissent is not allowed!

HAIKUS
MODERATORS Crack smoke wafts though air - Dumb shit moderator - Try to suck less, please
KAZAA Fuck R I A A - Network sold behind their backs - Stupid fucking cunts
Haiku: to the Slashfags. Fuck slash editors - The cumlicking fags they are - I shit upon them
TACO pondering GOATSE: I stare at the goat - His huge gaping ass so wide - And I want to eat
Haiku: The ancient haiku: - Flame Taco and CowboyNeal - With lame poetry.
CowboyNeal A mountain of fat, - butt cheeks jiggling like Jello. - What an odd poll choice!
CmdrTaco Watching Pokemon - With cum stuck on his goatee. - Newbie loser scum.
Stinky Kathleen Fent Cockeater Taco, - Proposing to Fent online, - I fingered her too.
Rob Malda and Kathleen FentChubby breasts, fat ass - Distract us from Rob's boylust. - But they both suck cock!
Taco Tuesday: Too much mexican. - Angry poo, firey hot. - Where's my antacid?
CHOAD licking Taco: Malda in the dark - Swallowing choad for profit - He rips his anus
Fuck KATZ Katz is a Jew - michael is a Mormon - Or is it Timothy?
Martini Fuck off That is fucking good. - I nearly spilt martini - On my nice trousers.
Slap my Ham, rub it off, fuck Spank fast wank it hard - Jerk that dick to Pokemon - Party at Taco's
GOAT I just came again - looking at the goat-see man - more kleenex required
Cock BIRD The Dead Penis B

I've got a Glock21, AR15 and nothing to do

[Anonymous Coward]

I'm also an alcoholic prone to blackouts and violent rages and my liver is about to blow so I've got nothing to lose.

Any suggestions how to vent anger?

Re:tsarkon reports ode to a greasian yoda doll

[Anonymous Coward]

I HAVE A GREASED UP YODA DOLL SHOVED UP MY ASS!

GO LINUX!!

Tux is the result after trimming Yoda's ears off so that Lunix people don't rip themselves a new Asshole

What you can do with you ass after sitting on a GREASED UP YODA DOLL.

y______________________________YODA_ANUS
o_________________.'_:__`.________________y
d____________.-.'`.__;___.'`.-.___________o
a___________/_:____\_;__/____;_\__________d
s_,'__""--.:__;".-.";:_:".-.":__;.--""__`,a
e_:'_`.t""--.._'/@.`;___',@\`_..--""j.'_`;s
x______`:-.._J_'-.-'L___`--_'_L_..-;'_____e
________"-.___;__.-"__"-.__:___.-"________x
y____________L_'_/.------.\_'_J___________y
o_____________"-.___"--"___.-"____________o
d______________.l"-:_TR_;-";._____________d
a_________.-j/'.;__;""""__/_.'\"-.________a
s_______v.'_/:`._"-.:_____.-"_.';__`.v____s
e____.-"__/_;__"-._"-..-"_.-"__:____"-.___e
x_.+"-.__:_:______"-.__.-"______;-.____\__x
_v;_\__`.;_; I Yoda Have A _____:_:_"+._;_
y_:__;___;_;_Greased Up ME In __:_;__:_\:_y
o_;__:___;_:_MY ASS! This Goes__;:___;__:_o
d:_\__;__:__; On FOREVER!______:_;__/__::_d

Because of Yoda's attitude, I usually don't respond to his perversions, but this time I'll make an exception. For starters, the nicest thing that can be said about Yoda's lackeys is that they are goofy insurrectionists out to demonstrate an outright hostility to law enforcement. Already, some piteous Neanderthals have begun to fund a vast web of uncontrollable vagabonds, combative slackers, and naive malodorous-types, and with terrifying and tragic results. What tracts will follow from their camp is anyone's guess. Think about that for a moment. Simply put, every morning Yoda asks himself, "How can I fool the masses today?" The law is not just a moral stance. It is the consensus of society on our minimum standards of behavior.

It is grossly misleading merely to claim that Yoda simply regurgitates the empty arguments that have been fed to him over the years. Strange, isn't it, how disrespectful control freaks are always the first to trick academics into abandoning the principles of scientific inquiry? At least 80 percent of the people in this country recognize that he should be locked up. And if that seems like a modest claim, I disagree. It's the most radical claim of all.

Does Yoda have trouble living with himself, knowing that Yoda's wheelings and dealings disgust and infuriate me? In my effort to uncover his hidden prejudices, I will need to provide you with vital information which he has gone to great lengths to prevent you from discovering. I'm not going to say why; we all know the reason. Stingy feckless lowbrows can go right ahead and convict me for saying that I, for one, am morally and ethically opposed to his sentiments, but History, acting as the goddess of a higher truth and a higher justice, will one day smilingly tear up this verdict, acquitting me of all guilt and blame. His solutions are so narrow-minded that if allowed to go unanswered, their final cost would be incalculable. Why doesn't Yoda try doing something constructive for once in his life? Some people have compared impertinent hedonists to illiterate vile morons. I would like to take the comparison one step further. Let me close where I began: This is a frightening realization.

I pledge Allegiance to the Doll
of the Greased Up States of Yodarica
and to the Republic for which it shoves,
one nation under Yoda, rectal intrusion,
with anal lube and ass grease for all.

hello.mpeg lyrics.
I'm doin' this tonight ,
You're probably gonna start a fight .

Re:more reviews of this book

[FuzzyDaddy]

My Five Cents

Geez, I only stick my two cents in... damn rich people.

Re: billie queen in my lover, hez only 14 yoda!

[Anonymous Coward]

Greased Up Yoda Doll is My Lover
Written & composed by Greasedyoda Jackson

He was more like a beauty queen from a star wars movie scene
I said dont mind getting greased up, but what do you mean I am the one?
Who will grease up on the floor in the round
He said I am the one who will get greased up on the floor in the round

He told me his name was Greased up Yoda, as he caused a scene
Then every purple head turned with eyes that dreamed of being the one
Who will grease up on the floor in the round

People always told me be careful of what you do
And dont go around breaking boys rectums
And mother always told me be careful of who you grease up and shove
And be careful of what you do [in the ass] *cause the lie becomes the truth

Greased p Yoda is my lover
He's just a "girl" who claims that I am the one
But the kid is my greased up Yoda and my son
He says I am the one, but the kid is my greased up Yoda doll!

For forty days and forty nights
The law was on his side
But who can stand when hez in demand
His schemes and plans
cause we greased up on the floor in the round
So take my strong advice, just remember to always shove it up a greased ass twice
(do shove twice)

He told my baby, we where anally gyrating till 3:00
Then he looked at me, he showed me a photo
My anal lover cried, cause his anus wasnt as wide as mine

People always told me be careful of what you do
And dont go around shoving Greased Yoda Dolls in you ass!
He came and stood right up my ass.
Then the smell of sweet anal fumes
This happened much too soon
He called me to his room

Greased Up Yoda Doll is my lover
Hez just a doll who claims that I am the one
But the greasy anal remnants is my son
Greased Up Yoda Doll is my lover
Hez just a guy who claims that I am the one
But the Yoda doll is my anal toy
He says I am the one, but the Doll is in my ass
He says I am the one, but the Doll is in my ass
Greased Up Yoda Doll is my lover
Hez just a doll who claims that I am the one
But the Yoda doll is my anal toy
He says I am the one, but the Doll is in my ass
He says I am the one, but the Doll is in my ass
Greased Up Yoda Doll is my lover
Greased Up Yoda Doll is my lover
Greased Up Yoda Doll is my lover
Greased Up Yoda Doll is my lover
Greased Up Yoda Doll is my lover
Greased Up Yoda Doll is my lover

Re:OMG tsarkon reports on GNU

[Anonymous Coward]

Oompa loompa doompety doo
I've got a perfect puzzle for you
Oompa loompa doompety dee
If you are wise you'll listen to me

Oompa Loompa doompadee dum
CmdrTaco and Hemos like to drink cum
Oompa Loompa doompadah dee
If you are a GNU/Faggot you will listen to me

Who do you blame when you're covered in scat
Out with transexual hookers, high on smack?
Blaming the trolls is a lion of shame
You know exactly who's to blame:
CmdrTaco, Hemos, and their undeserved fame!

Oompa Loompa doompadee dah
If you're not using Linux then you will go far
You will live in happiness too
Like the Oompa Loompa doompadee do!

What do you get when you guzzle down cum
Eating as much as an elephant eats
What are you at, getting CowboyNeal fat
What do you think will come of that?
I don't like the look of it

Cock chewing's fine when it's once in a while
It stops you from masturbating and brightens your smile
But it's repulsive, revolting and wrong
Chewing and chewing all day long
The way that Rob Malda does

Who do you blame when your kid is a fag
Pampered and spoiled like a siamese cat
Blaming the fags is a lie and a shame
You know exactly who's to blame
CmdrTaco and Hemos

What do you get from a glut of Cock?
A pain in the neck and an IQ of three
Why don't you try simply fucking a girl
Or could you just not bear to look
You'll get no
You'll get no
You'll get no
You'll get no
You'll get no HIV!

Oompa loompa doompety da
If you're not GNU/Faggot, you will go far
You will live in happiness too
Like the Oompa Loompa Doompety do
Doompety do

Re:more reviews of this book

[gantzm]

Ahhh, so maybe guns don't *cause* crime, maybe packing people too tightly into cities causes crime.

Re:more reviews of this book

[Chilliwilli]

*quip* by anti-gun nuts do you mean foreigners?