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Linux To Power NWS's Storm Prediction System
Mr. Plow writes "The National Weather Service is migrating to Linux-based IBM workstations and has purchased 900 IBM computers and 160 servers to do so." He includes links to coverage at Forbes (a Reuters wire service story there), Government Computer News, and
Computerworld.
I'm a NWS forecaster. We have our new workstations... they are pretty darn nifty. They are dual Xeons (2.4 ghz) running RedHat 7.2. These are much improved over the old HPs, which were J200 (overview). The bad news is that the database and application servers are still the old HPs. These are scheduled to be replaced in the near future as well.
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That the migration is from HP UX boxes to Linux, not from Windows as some people might assume.
Well, since Edward Lorenz and his discovery of chaos, many of the current weather prediction systems are chaotic, and thus the forecast becomes less accurate over a longer time period.
Like many chaotic equations, the systems of weather patterns follow a `normal' path for a period of time before becoming chaotic. So this method is useful in predicting specific weather patterns for as long as 5 days in advance. After this point though the chaotic nature of the systems become apparent, with different scenario runs of similar data leading to completely different results.
So, more advanced computer power may lead to a better understanding of the chaotic equations which drive our weather and other environmental factors, though I for one remain sceptical, there are just too many factors to take into account for anything more concrete than the weather might possibly be . .
Well, to throw one stat out at you. In 1987, the NWS had a probability of detection score for tornadoes of 25%. This past year it was nearly 80%. Now given, part of that improvement is better trained employees and an excellent skywarn/spotter network. But yes, bigger and better computers are helping to improve the NWS mission.
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