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Linux 2.6 Kernel Pool Results

Posted by michael on from the lowered-expectations dept.

jafo writes "Steve Ratcliffe, Master Software Project Estimator, has most correctly estimated the release of the Linux version 2.6 kernel. On January 6, 2001 (within 4 hours of when the 2.6 kernel pool was opened), he entered a guess which was accurate within 15 hours. Check the results for some interesting statistics and submit your guess for the 2.8 pool." See the original story if you like.

2 of 142 comments (clear)

  1. Interesting statistics... by cperciva · · Score: 5, Interesting

    If you exclude the guesses which are obviously jokes (eg, 2038), then 96% of the guesses were optimistic. Obviously some elements of proprietary software development still hold true in OSS.

    Also amusing: The median guess was April 1, 2002.

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  2. Re:Now this is an evil idea! by mhesseltine · · Score: 4, Interesting

    While this seems funny, I doubt it would work for one simple reason; if someone is submitting bad patches, breaking modules, etc., I would hope that Linus, Alan, Marcello, (insert maintainer here) would quit accepting this person's patches.

    After all, that's what the reputation game is all about. Those with talent are revered, those without are shunned until they can prove themselves worthy (probably through a stand-alone project).

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