Old School Data Mining, Maritime Style?

jason0000042 writes "The BBC is reporting on Cliwoc, the Climatological Database for the World's Oceans, which pulls data about climate change from 18th and 19th Century sailing ships' logbooks. It's like a window in time that could help us better understand global climate change, if they can decipher the olde timey language of the 1750's. Personally, I can't wait to know if we're going to melt down, or alternatively, have an ice age."

Comments

'tis good

[m0rphin3]

Nowe we canne fynde oute about the Dragons and mighty Sea-Serpents alsoe. I, for Onne, can't Waite to fynde oute if they melted down, or what.

Please...

[rune.w]

Personally, I can't wait to know if we're going to melt down, or alternatively, have an ice age.

Unfortunatelly the data sample being studied is insufficient to give you an answer for two main reasons:

1. The data is more complete for the Atlantic Ocean. A big chunk of the Pacific Ocean is left out simply because the most interesting travel routes were concentrated on the South Pacific.

2. 100 years of weather records are insufficient to make accurate predictions of global climate patterns.

I, for once, would be grateful if /. editors and contributors refrained of making comments like these in the stories.

R.

Re:Please...

[Slick_Snake]

350 years out of about 4 billion is kind of a small sample

Warming AND Ice Age

[RabidChipmunk]

Actually, current models look like we're going to get both.

The basic gyst is that the warming melts Greenland. This diverts the gulf stream; plunging Europe into an Ice Age. [It also cools the NE of North America, but Europe really gets it.]

The average temperature is rising, that doesn't mean it's getting warmer everywhere.

Re:Warming AND Ice Age

[Aardpig]

The basic gyst is that the warming melts Greenland. This diverts the gulf stream; plunging Europe into an Ice Age.

To be more specific, the meltwater coming off a warmer Greenland will dilute the seawater at the terminus of the Gulf Stream. The Gulf Stream is driven in part by salinity differences (hence the term "thermohaline circulation), and if the dilution reduces the magnitude of these differences too much, then it is possible that the Gulf Stream will shut down. A good introductory discussion of this subject can be found here.

To see what Europe might be like without the Gulf Stream, consider that the British Isles are at the same approximate latitude as Newfoundland. Brrrrr!

Aliens Cause Global Warming

[mesocyclone]

Seriously... this is the title of the Caltech Michelen Lecture, 1/17/2003 by Michael Crichton.

Since this discussion will lead to the inevitable global warming flap, this paper offers a good viewpoint on the issue (although I disagree with his assertion that SETI is a religion - it isn't - it's an experiment).

A few quotes:

Regarding Sagan's claims of nuclear winter:

Although Richard Feynman was characteristically blunt, saying, "I really don't think these guys know what they're talking about,"

In my book, if Feynam said it, it was almost certianly true. I used to go to his lectures at Hughes Malibu Research Center and it was an amazing experience. ...and...

I want to pause here and talk about this notion of consensus, and the rise of what has been called consensus science. I regard consensus science as an extremely pernicious development that ought to be stopped cold in its tracks. Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled. Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you're being had.