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Will Cellular Phones Skew Survey Results?
FriedEgg writes "Recently, many people have started to forgo traditional landline telephones in favor of cellular phones only. This presents a problem for telephone pollsters who are prohibited by the FCC from calling cell phones with automated equipment, and from calling people for whom receiving the call costs money. While they recognize the exclusion of cellular only users can skew their results, they're not yet sure how much... because they're unable to survey cellular only users to find out their demographic information. Some evidence does indicate the frequency of cellular-only is highest among 18-24 year olds, traditionally the hardest to survey anyway. If the problem grows worse, it's possible we could end up with a "Dewey Defeats Truman"-like situation where the telephone poll results were skewed because Truman supporters were less likely to own a telephone."
I would have to say that there is already an effect from the number of people with Caller ID or who screen their calls with answering machines. I know I don't bother picking up if there's no caller info or it says "GALLUP POLL".
The question for the market research is:
Does the universe of people who have cell phones correlate to the universe of respondents that I'm trying to reach or does it introduce bias? (I know just enough to get myself in trouble here...)
e.g. if 55% of your population is A, and 45% is B, and the cellphone population is also 55% A / 45% B, then it will have no impact on the results. OTOH, if the cellphone population is 75% A / 25% B, then there is going to be bias that will have to be corrected for in order to extrapolate back to the main population. (Guaranteed there is some wrong terminology there...)
Wolde you bothe eate your cake, and have your cake?
Some excerpts from the first article:
In an unscientific poll last month by CNN and Money magazine, 41 percent of more than 11,000 voluntary participants said they would be inclined to pull the plug on their land lines and go entirely wireless.
Unfortunately no reason is stated, but I have a feeling that "so these stupid pollsters don't call and pester me" is one of the leading reasons.
A recent Sprint Wireless survey of more than 500 college students found that half are cell-only customers.
No kidding, Sherlock. Think about it. Students are always on the move, changing addresses frequently. It is MUCH easier to have a cell phone only than to deal with changing land lines every 6 months.Students are also the demographic group with too many other things to do and think about than answer some stupid survey.
"That makes it an opt-in situation where the cellphone user somehow signs up to allow researchers to call," she said. "Who's going to do that?"
Like....DUUUUUUH! Get a clue already! YOU'RE UNWANTED!
People say I'm crazy, I got diamonds on the soles of my shoes...
The problem is that many of the people in this business aren't mathematician and if they are then they are at best only second rates ones.
This poblem doesn't appear only in public survey - in fact most "statistics" in natural and political sciences are usually fucked. Most mathematicians don't care - we know that significance tests don't really give any viable results etc. So if people aren't interested in maths or aren't willing to invest time to understand it, then let them believe their rubbish.
Nevertheless all this whining about "skewed" surveys is meaningless, it's like complaing that the moon is made from bad tasting cheese.
Owner of a Mensa membership card.
Why can't the wireless companies set up a way to allow the caller to pay the charges? Politicians would get more accurate surveys, wireless companies would get another revenue stream, polling companies would finally be able to reach those elusive cell-only customers... everyone wins!
Well okay, the consumer gets screwed with a bunch of survey calls that they don't want... but really, how important are the consumers anyway?
I am NOT a man!
I am a free number!
Surprisingly, the parent didn't post any links to the famous picture of the debacle. Well, I guess it turns out there are a few of them.
Here are three, including a wide shot I hadn't seen before..
W
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This is my SIG. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
As for the "Dewey Defeats Truman" episode, my understanding is that this was exit polling conducted by the Chicago Tribune in a massive, first of its kind, nationwide effort. Exit polling, as I'm sure you know, is generally highly accurate, since it reflects actual voters, not people who claim they're going to vote some months or weeks hence (or not).
My father worked at the Tribune in 1948 and described to me the massive bank of telephone operators they had there, with stringers throughout the nation phoning in exit poll results, which were then tabulated by electromechanical adding machines. It was a very labor intensive effort.
Anyway, despite its apparent "failure" -- i.e. in predicting the winner -- I believe that the Tribune's use of exit polls was actually looked at as quite a success, because it did produce good numbers. Their problem wasn't the data they received from exit polling, it was hubris: they looked at the data, which showed a very close election, and decided to predict the winner despite the closeness. They gambled, and "lost," but didn't lose much.