Linux Headed For Smartphone Domination?

An anonymous reader writes "LinuxDevices has published a summary of research findings from Zelos Group that predicts that Linux is going dominate the smartphone market, beating out both Symbian and Microsoft. Zelos says that Linux scored highest on the two criteria that matter most to OEMs and carriers: openness and low cost. Microsoft scored lowest in these criteria. The article says Zelos believes Symbian beats Microsoft due to the flexibility of its licensing terms, and Microsoft prospects will be stymied to an extent by its desire to strictly manage how its brand is used. The conclusion: Linux will be the preferred operating system for connected devices."

Comments

"They" already have Linux controlled radio's

[OriginalSpaceMan]

My wife was visiting a near by company (I can't say who) that has lots of hand-held an other types of radio powered by Linux. She said they seem to be very stable and easy to manage. Why not phones? The concept is already there...

It's all about the size.

[cduffy]

I happen to know some very skilled embedded systems developers, and at least one (also a Linux kernel maintainer) recently lost a possible contract with a very large multinational company because Linux turned out to be too large for the environment they wanted to run it in.

Hopefully VSTa or a like open operating system better suited to very small environments (eCos? dunno) will become practical and popular for such usage. Linux is reasonable in larger embedded systems -- networking hardware and the like -- but its suitability becomes less and less as space constraints constrict (think 100K of RAM or less). Remember, it's not just the cost of the OS that's an issue -- the cost of the extra hardware to run it, and the loss of battery life, is also a dealbreaker.

So no, I'm not convinced by this report; the summary makes it look too much like something concocted by talking to managers with insufficient engineering input.

Re:It's all about the size.

[kroyd]

Well, integrated chips such as the Samsung SIP (System-in-Package) is 17x17x1.4mm, in that space you get 256mbit of SDRAM and 256mbit of flash RAM and a 203Mhz ARM CPU.. And even that is on the very low end when you look at what future smartphones will require. Some info on SIP.

I believe the majority of new smartphones introduced this year will have a 2mp or more camera, 240x320 or better resolution, of course a reasonably capable TCP/IP stack for playing online games, 3D accelration, etc.. 100K of ram is not enough, and it hasn't been enough for years. (100K of RAM is about what you have in a modern low end Nokia phone sold in Europe, and that is clearly not a smartphone.)

So, it all comes down to which OS has the most features for the lowest price, and which fits on a computer that would have been considered high-end in the early '90s. If you start from scratch and plan to sell millions of your product, which you have to do to get a reasonable margin, using Linux is a rather obvious choice imho.

Motorola Linux Phone

[Bill Kendrick]

Article over at LinuxDevices.com: "Motorola has launched its first embedded Linux/Java smartphone, the much-anticipated A760, in the Asian market."

More research facts

[prostoalex]

Just last year, there were 3 million smartphones sold

Symbian owned two-thirds of the market, Microsoft - 14%, Palm - 13%

HP is becoming the biggest name in the industry with 33% market share globally, but Nokia has 78% in Europe, Middle East and Asia.

Re:More research facts

[Anonymous Coward]

"HP is becoming the biggest name in the industry [itfacts.biz] with 33% market share globally, but Nokia has 78% in Europe, Middle East and Asia."

The linked article has misquoted another linked article and mixed up PDAs and smartphones:

Highlights include HP becoming the clear leader in handheld segment, with 33% share of shipments in Q4 2003; Palm chalking up a second place with a 25% share as shipments fall 19% compared to year-ago quarter; the last quarter of 2003 becoming the first in EMEA where handhelds broke the 1 million unit barrier; and Nokia - unsurprisingly - retained smartphone leadership with 78%.

HP used to make a smartphone which was basically PocketPC 2002 Phone Edition running on a pre-Compaq takeover Jornada PPC. I had one and it was rubbish - that's why the 33% HP comment got me puzzled...

Re:More research facts

[prostoalex]

I believe they consider phones with PDA features counted as smartphones. Don't quote me on this, as the criteria seems to be vague, depending on whose research you read into.

Since they define the smartphone OS market shares, I am assuming that one of the requirement would be for a phone to have its own OS (Symbian/Windows/Palm), as opposed to a single-app environment peculiar to older models.

Re:Potential Bias

[Bill Kendrick]

Surely there's a chance that LinuxDevices has a bit of an interest in this?

Looks like you didn't read carefully :^) LinuxDevices didn't do the study or release the report. They just wrote about it, just like Wired or CNN or Slashdot would...

Re:Uh right

[soft_guy]

That happened in a totally different context. So much so, that the fact that MS currently has 90+% of the desktop market doesn't matter *at all* in the context of smart phones.

For one thing, the maker of the phone puts both the OS and the apps on the phone. The user probably doesn't even know what OS the phone is running - or care. The phone maker is going to go with the smallest costs. That includes all costs, not just the license cost. Fortunately, Linux is not harder or more expensive to develop for than Windows CE. So, Linux has a good shot at being picked for any given implementation.