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James Cameron's Illustrated Mars Reference Design

An anonymous reader writes "Terminator Director James Cameron commissioned renderings of the NASA Mars Reference Design [HTML, 4 PDFs]. The mission profile calls for a cargo ship sent ahead of a crew, a huge (Terminator-like?) rover, and inflatable habitats. It's not clear where Skynet and the T-800's hyper-alloy combat chassis fit in yet. Between now and then, the 5 Mars missions: 2005 Mars Reconnaisance Orbiter, 2007 Phoenix and Netlanders, 2009 Science Lab Rover, and 2011 Scout. Skynet comes in 2026."

161 comments

  1. Skynet and Mars by DarkHelmet · · Score: 4, Funny
    It's not clear where Skynet and the T-800's hyper-alloy combat chassis fit in yet.

    What part of Arnold going to Mars do you not understand?

    I personally don't mind him going to Mars, just as long as This Terminator stays and becomes my personal bed buddy.

    Of course, since I browse Slashdot, that's never going to happen. Thank you OSDN! You've ruined not only my life, but my odds of scoring with her.

    --
    /^[A-Z0-9._%+-]+@[A-Z0-9.-]+\.[A-Z]{2,4}$/i
    1. Re:Skynet and Mars by EtherealStrife · · Score: 1

      Promises of reform on Mars...I can see it now...

    2. Re:Skynet and Mars by pixas · · Score: 1

      You know, in a couple of years those dolls will be rolling of the production lines, maby then you will be able to get your hands on one of them. Or you'll be shot on sight.

  2. Phoenix? by istewart · · Score: 2, Funny

    I thought Phoenix wasn't supposed to launch until 2063.

    Also, wouldn't it get to Mars a whole lot faster than three years?

  3. James Cameron explores the planets by oingoboingo · · Score: 2, Funny

    James is well qualified to work with NASA on these planetary explorations. From viewing Terminator 3, it's quite clear it was written in Uranus.

    1. Re:James Cameron explores the planets by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      James Cameron didn't have anything to do with Terminator 3.. He simply refused to work on it in the first place..

      Hohum..

    2. Re:James Cameron explores the planets by silentbozo · · Score: 5, Informative

      James Cameron may have spawned the Terminator franchise, but he had no connection T3 (the film was directed by Jonathan Mostow.) Rumor has it that Cameron was planning to buy back the rights to the Terminator franchise, and then produce/direct his own script, but was outbid. When the guys who bought the Terminator rights tried to hire him for T3, Cameron turned them down.

    3. Re:James Cameron explores the planets by moviepig.com · · Score: 1

      Maybe predictable the article would name TERMINATOR rather than Cameron's other magnum opus TITANIC. A vastly overbudget project about a sinking ship might be bad juju for NASA.

      --
      Seeing bad movies only encourages them. Watch responsibly
  4. Being somewhat of a luxury by mccalli · · Score: 4, Funny
    James Cameron commissioned renderings of the NASA Mars Reference Design...

    What, Magrathea built Mars too?

    Cheers,
    Ian

    1. Re:Being somewhat of a luxury by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well, something with the atmosphere turned out to be weakly designed, so it had to be towed into a different orbit and everything had to be started over again with earth.

    2. Re:Being somewhat of a luxury by F34nor · · Score: 1

      I say we bomb Mars with Wales.

  5. First mission in 2005? by Daniel+Baumgarten · · Score: 1

    Mightn't such a schedule be rushing it a bit? I don't think the necessary technology would have time to mature by 2011.

    Instead of setting a deadline to reach Mars, I say we go when we're good and ready.

    --
    "Screw slashdot." -- Linus Torvalds
    1. Re:First mission in 2005? by ZigMonty · · Score: 1

      Look at when it was written: July 1997.

    2. Re:First mission in 2005? by BTWR · · Score: 4, Informative

      Bill Clinton authorized NASA to launch missions to mars every 20 months when Mars is in an opportune window. It is actually cheaper to launch a $300 million probe every other year than wait every 5 years and launch a $500 million one (my cornell profs, who run the current MERs explains it) - sitting around w/no payoff loses you money. Sucessful missions like pathfinder and MERs 2003 get you science and grants. The 20-month (or whatever the window is) has been followed pretty closely:

      1997: Pathfinder/Mars Global Surveyor
      1999: Mars Climate Orbiter/Mars Polar Lander (both lost)
      2001: Mars Oddessey/Mars 2001 Lander (Code name: Apex - cancelled after the 1999 failures)
      2003: "Athena:" A lander that was planned back in the late 90's, then cancelled after the 1999 failures(much of Athena became incorporated into the current MERs). Spirit/Opporunity (also Japan and ESA took advantage of the opportune planetary alignment).

      Also, before the 1999 failures, there was an amazingly complex Mars Sample Return mission in it's initial stages planned for 2008. Professor Squyres (Spirit/Opportunity leader) was also to have been involved in that. It was a sort of "Rube-Goldberg" trick that would have had a lander on the surface, scoop up some soil, put it in a rocket not much bigger than a model rocket, launch it into Mars orbit, rendezevous with an orbitting satellite, launch it back to earth and finally be snapped up by a helicopter as it paracheutted down over the American desert (this parachutte technique happens to be how StarDust's sample will be retrieved). That mission woulda been so cool though. Honestly, making it work sounds even cooler than the actual specimen we woulda gotten back!

    3. Re:First mission in 2005? by Aglassis · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Mars Rover Sample Return (MRSR) has been in development since the 1980's. Initially the Pathfinder program, which eventually spawned the Pathfinder mission, was designed to demonstrate the technologies for the MRSR. MRSR is classic vaporware. It has gone through several complete revisions including one that had a 1100 pound rover and a cost of $10 - $13 billion. MRSR if it ever launches will probably take place after the Mars Science Laboratory mission (if it ever launches). While it sounds like a cool idea to bring back rocks to give intense scientific analysis, I think it is more practical on science earned per dollar cost to invest other technologies such as a rover or lander that can drill far beneath the surface for samples, multiple advance seismic detectors, or rovers with ground penetrating radar. Many of these mission could be done for the same cost and a fraction of the failure probability of MRSR.

      --
      Suddenly, the hairy finger of a familiar monkey tapped me on the shoulder. It was time.--G. T.
    4. Re:First mission in 2005? by TehHustler · · Score: 1
      From the Stardust site:

      How will the samples be contained when returned to Earth?

      The landing site at the Utah Test and Training Range was chosen because the area is a vast, desolate and unoccupied salt flat controlled by the U.S. Air Force in conjunction with the U.S. Army. The landing footprint for the sample return capsule will be about 30 by 84 kilometers (18 by 52 miles), an ample space to allow for aerodynamic uncertainties and winds that might affect the direction the capsule travels in the atmosphere.

      The actual landing footprint will be predicted by tracking the spacecraft just before the capsule's release. Roughly six hours before entry, an updated footprint will be provided to the capsule recovery team. There is a mission for sample return thats being caught by a helicopter, the details escape me now. I also dont get why they dont just let THAT one hit the surface just like Stardust's capsule... Anyone?

      --

      TheHustler
      http://www.elmarko.org/ - Useless bilge
      http://www.asylum-games.co.uk/ - Co-Founder
    5. Re:First mission in 2005? by PhotoGuy · · Score: 1
      scoop up some soil, put it in a rocket not much bigger than a model rocket, launch it into Mars orbit, rendezevous with an orbitting satellite, launch it back to earth and finally be snapped up by a helicopter as it paracheutted down over the American desert (this parachutte technique happens to be how StarDust's sample will be retrieved)


      Can someone explain, or point to a good reference, on this helicopter retrieval method? It just doesn't seem to make any sense to me.

      If the thing is falling fast, the helicopter would have to place itself below the falling object, and that pesky rotor would be a bit of an obstruction to the catch.

      If the helicopter were to be "swooping down" from above to catch the object, the object would have to be slowed with parachutes anyway, I assume, so why not just let it land?

      It seems like a method that would be difficult, dangerous, and prone to failure. Can anyone point out why it is used at all?

      --
      Love many, trust a few, do harm to none.
    6. Re:First mission in 2005? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No offence, but forget the comment - check out this from the link on his sig.

    7. Re:First mission in 2005? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Many of these mission could be done for the same cost and a fraction of the failure probability of MRSR."

      Yes: it is only that MRSR is the perfect testbed for tripulated travels to Mars... remember, astrounauts will probably want to return after their Mars holidays.

  6. Good idea... by John+Seminal · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Einstein said that imagination is more important than knowledge. I think it is a great idea to get some of the most imaginative minds to offer ideas to scientists on how to send humans to mars. My only question is, if they will send some large cargo container/ship ahead of a manned mission, how will the manned mission be able to land near enough to the cargo/habitat ship?? Or will this just orbit Mars? I hope I get to see a manned station on Mars in my lifetime.

    --

    Rosco: "If brains were gunpowder, Enos couldn't blow his nose."

    1. Re:Good idea... by BlueCoder · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Carbo ships would obviously orbit mars. Otherwise the landing spot would be set in stone. Furthermore the ships would stay in orbit while droping payload on specific cooordinents.

      It's also likely mars would get it's own gps satelites to spare the expence of the containers carrying more sophisticated navigation equipment.

      We can expect the first expedition to mars to be full of married geologists and engineers willing to stay there decades if not most of the rest of their lives. With laborers comming in on subsequent missions.

      After they construct their preliminary shelter they first job will be to setup solar setup and then nuclear power since constructing a small city will require a lot more energy than solor can provide. They will setup a small reactor near their base and a much larger on will be setup miles from their base for a refinery.

      After construction of alpha base they will start constructing a larger habitat, soil and hydroponics farms from a slow trickle of refined metals being produced. Everything will be very modular and all metal will be recycled. We can expect chicken and fish farms for mean. They will also have pressure and heating units to produce oil from human, animal and plant waste; this will provide the material to produce plastics and a limited amount of fossil fuel for miscilaneous applications such as rocket fuel.

      But the main function of the base for years to come would be to produce massive amounts of metal and raw resources for construction of subsequent commercial colonies.

      Who knows, decades later maybe a space elevator to make exporting quite profitable.

      Mars' greatest strength is as an industrial supercenter to the solar system. We don't likely have to worry about contaminating the ground water there.

    2. Re:Good idea... by pipingguy · · Score: 3, Insightful


      Didn't Cameron do deep sea exploration, himself?

      I usually don't side with the Hollywood types, but he seems to be a real risk-taker, and you've got to admire that.

      More stuff, less fluff.

    3. Re:Good idea... by kfg · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I think it is a great idea to get some of the most imaginative minds to offer ideas to scientists on how to send humans to mars.

      Taking a cue from one of the most imaginative minds of the 20th century, Chuck Jones,I propose using a really, really big slingshot.

      Einstein was an imaginitive man. It was his imagination that let jump right to true conlusions that no one else could see.

      Richard Feynman was perhaps the most imaginative physicist ever. His notational systems alone are amazing.

      However, both of these men had their imaginations and intuitions backed good, old fashioned, knowledge such as you might expect from man bearing the title "Doctor."

      Einstein's statement is in no way to be interpreted as supporting the idea that "creative artistic types" are likely to come up with intuition based ideas of technical merit.

      Arthur C. Clarke saw things in his stories few others could imagine.

      But then Arthur C. Clarke had the knowledge to back that imagination up.

      KFG

    4. Re:Good idea... by danila · · Score: 2, Informative
      Cameron is pretty well informed and he always does his homework. The guy who hires a scientific ship for a couple of years to study Titanic and then decides to make a film about it is pretty high on the list of people I would trust. Add to that the fact that in his approach he clearly acknowledge? his limitations and based the designs on real current assumptions about the mission, and you have the result described in the article:

      I said, 'Look, this is our proposal for what a Hab would look like, and what a pressurized rover would look like, and we made certain assumptions based on how we operate deep submersibles, for example, in terms of how the manipulators would work taking samples and so on.' And [scientists from the human exploration and development group] said, 'Hey, this is neat! Thanks! If you ever want to get out of filmmaking, come here and hang with us.'


      As for the title "Doctor", it generally says nothing about the person. Cameron is not a Doctor, but he is a son of an engineer and he has a major in physics. The fact that he chose to pursue a career in filmmaking does not preclude him from being knowledgeable enough to make a reference design for human mission to Mars. On the other hand, his background in filmmaking actually makes him more qualified (I hope you won't deny the quality and realism of the sets and machines in Aliens, Terminator and Titanic).
      --
      Future Wiki -- If you don't think about the future, you cannot have one.
    5. Re:Good idea... by kfg · · Score: 1

      In other words, Cameron has knowledge.

      KFG

    6. Re:Good idea... by thatguywhoiam · · Score: 3, Interesting
      Didn't Cameron do deep sea exploration, himself?

      Yeah. Besides being one of the only (the only?*) director able to really shoot something on/underwater that didn't go way over on budget and ambition... he actually has the patent on those full-face helmets from The Abyss, and a few other things. His brother is a big engineer type as well.

      * Peter Weir's Master and Commander didn't go over budget I don't think, and that was on the water, but I think it stands alone with Cameron's Titanic and Abyss as water-movie successes. He just asks for an astronomical buget up front and gets it out of the way. :)

      --
      If Jesus wants me it knows where to find me.
    7. Re:Good idea... by tmortn · · Score: 1

      This isn't Cameron's view of a mars mission... he just requested imaging of a current plan. One which is largely based on the Mars Direct Plan detailed by Robert Zubrin in 'The Case for Mars'. This seems to be mostly the NASA adopted version known as Mars Semi Direct and is the current baseline plan for a manned mission to mars.

      As for how, well unlike the moon Mars has an atmosphere which means an internal combustion engine or Fuel cell will work ( albeit with a different gas, Methane Fuel cell in this case I believe ). So basically you land the crew with a rover with a full tank of gas to run an ICE or fuel cell with a considerable range... around 1000 miles or 500 mile radius which is far more versatile than a battery or solar powered rover.

      For an idea of how accurately they can land ballistic loads the Mars Rovers provide an excellent example. IE they can draw a circle considerably smaller than 1000 miles and be relatively certain they can land payloads in it. back in the days of Capsule use in the US program they got it down to around 50 miles if memeory serves.

      If you have a 3 launch system where you launch/land a cargo which successfully begins the fuel making process ( you know its there and working ) then you launch a Crew vehicle and another cargo/fuel producing pod. If you land the crew withen rover range the second cargo pod becomes the basis for the next mission. If you fail to land the crew near enough you then attempt to land the reserve cargo pod withen rover range of where the crew landed.

      Thus you have a crew vehicle with roughly 1000 miles of range to reach the cargo pods and two chances to get them withen range of a cargo pod. The overall success rate of mars missions aside, the ballistic accuracy has only be way off once that I know of... that unfortunate incident involving poor measurment conversions or failure of conversion. one of the biggest errors in Earth Capsule return was the recent Soyouz landing of an ISS crew which was off a few hundred miles due to a steeper than planned re-entry triggered by a software failure.

      In addition if access to water is found and you land the crew in a place where they can 'easily' access water then you can include a smaller ability to process its own fuel and suddenly the range is limited only by access to water with which to seed the process and life support for the crew.

      --
      I don't ask you to be me. I only ask you not expect me to be you.
    8. Re:Good idea... by Jagasian · · Score: 1

      The more important bit of advice is that hard work is more important than both imagination and knowledge.

    9. Re:Good idea... by KewlPC · · Score: 1

      Titanic's approved budget was $114 million. It's final, actual cost ended up around $200 million.

      Both Titanic and The Abyss had ambition in spades.

      Yes, the full-face helmets were patented.

      James Cameron's brother designed the cameras used to shoot the actual Titanic wreckage for the movie.

  7. The Collier's Space Program, half a century later by Animats · · Score: 5, Informative
    Back in 1952, Collier's Magazine published a six-part series later called the Collier's Space Program. That series is credited with inspiring the US space program.

    Those pictures are famous, and there's even an animated Disney documentary from the period.

    The "Collier's space program" was far more ambitious than what's been done to date, or even what Cameron had drawn. The Collier's program had a big rotating space station in Earth orbit, a Mars rocket under construction in orbit, and heavy industrial traffic to and from orbit. Cameron has much lower ambitions.

  8. Good for Cameron, NASA, and us by spun · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Cameron gets more realistic looking images for his movie, NASA gets some more money for things they were doing anyway, and we get better movies, a better space program, and more public interest in going to Mars.

    I'm 33, and I damn well better see a person on Mars in my lifetime! And a moon colony. And those flying cars are LONG overdue...

    I'd love to be sitting in my little cabin on mars in my old age, doddering on about "In my day, we had to live in inflatable huts, and we had an oxygen ration. We were only allowed to breathe ten times a minute. You kids have it lucky!"

    --
    - None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
    1. Re:Good for Cameron, NASA, and us by p3d0 · · Score: 1

      I think you cut and pasted that comment into the wrong article. This is not about Cameron going into space. It's about commissioning drawings.

      --
      Patrick Doyle
      I mod down every jackass who puts his moderation policy in his sig. Oh, wait a sec....
    2. Re:Good for Cameron, NASA, and us by spun · · Score: 1

      Sorry, thought it was obvious what I was talking about. NASA has been working on these plans for a while. Cameron could have gone with some Hollywood designer, but he spent the money with NASA instead. Does that make my comment less confusing?

      --
      - None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
    3. Re:Good for Cameron, NASA, and us by p3d0 · · Score: 1
      Oh, ok, so it wasn't a cut-and-paste job. But I still don't understand the "better movies" angle. Are you talking about that one reference to a "3-D movie"?

      Thanks for the explanation.

      --
      Patrick Doyle
      I mod down every jackass who puts his moderation policy in his sig. Oh, wait a sec....
  9. Yes he did.. by QuantumG · · Score: 1

    back in 1997!

    --
    How we know is more important than what we know.
  10. Human pilot by SuperKendall · · Score: 3, Interesting

    For a really excellent read on sending humans to Mars, read "Mars On Earth" by Zubrin which is about the "Mars Underground" effort at building and running prototype martian research stations on earth, but also has much more on thoughts about details of how a manned mission to mars would be run (including history of the various proposals for how to go about such an effort).

    The short answer though is that long-range navigation would get the ship to around the right area of Mars, then a human pilot could help the ship land in a good nearby location, moon lander style. As Zubrin notes, there is nothing like having a trained pilot actually doing the landing. i don't think humans landing on Mars will be dropping down in giant Jackie Chan style human hamster balls!

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    1. Re:Human pilot by identity0 · · Score: 1

      I've read Zubrin's other book, I think it was called 'The road to Mars'.

      While his ideas about how such a mission could be accomplished are interesting, I was a bit disturbed by his motivation for the Mars missions - he thinks of the earth(and the U.S. in particular) as having become too government-controlled, and wants to set up a colony on Mars just to get away from it. In fact, he specifically says in the book that the Mars colony will eventually rebel and set itself up as a independent nation. Zubrin reminds me of Sam Houston, or that guy who wanted to make California his own country. His political motivation isn't nessecerily bad on its own, but it does cast doubt on some of his arguments - I suspected through the entire book that he was oversimplifing the problems to push his agenda, and his economic arguments in particular seemed suspect.

  11. What's wrong with Cameron by superpulpsicle · · Score: 1

    This guy basically haven't made a blockbuster hit since the titanic. He has gone from being a good director who can mix technology/screenplays to just some documentary director.

    It's like seeing shaq leaving the lakers at the top of his game to play for a charity league for good will.

    1. Re:What's wrong with Cameron by payndz · · Score: 3, Informative
      He hasn't made anything since Titanic because... well, he hasn't had to.

      I interviewed Cameron last year, and flat-out asked him why he hasn't made a film (as opposed to a documentary) since 1997. His answer was, "I'm having too much fun." Well, lucky bastard on the one hand, but on the other, all credit to him!

      Still, looks like he's going ahead with Battle Angel now. And in 3D, to boot!

      --
      You must think in Russian.
    2. Re:What's wrong with Cameron by kfg · · Score: 1

      . . .just some documentary director.

      In other words, he has moved on to the highest plane of film making where he has to mix technology/screenplays and inform the audience, all at the same time. I vote for another something along the lines of the Bismark documentary before another Titanic. At least we didn't have to wait for the bloody Bismark to just frickin' sink already.

      KFG

    3. Re:What's wrong with Cameron by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How's that wrong? Maybe he's a pulling a John Lennon.

      Watching the Wheels

  12. Re:Obvious quote: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's "Get yoh azz to mahz!"

  13. Been there already... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    ... or is it just one of those memory implant holidays??

    1. Re:Been there already... by OverlordQ · · Score: 1

      no actually it was a coverup by those evil people at Rekall.

      --
      Your hair look like poop, Bob! - Wanker.
  14. Re:Obvious quote: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Fahk yoo, azzhoal..

  15. Re:Obvious quote: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Ya dead Quaid!

    Screw you Vinnie!!!

  16. The technology is not the problem. Will is. by Tau+Zero · · Score: 4, Interesting
    If we had to develop something really new and different to do this, it might take the 8 years that Apollo required to put people on the Moon. But look at what we've got on the shelf already:
    1. Very high-performance hydrogen-oxygen rocket motors, courtesy of the Space Shuttle program.
    2. Two different final descent and landing systems:
      • Rocket-assisted, descended via the Surveyor (Luna) and Viking (Mars) landers.
      • Airbag, descended from the Mars Pathfinder system.
      (I note that Cameron's proposal is to use both, with the crew landing via rocket and cargo bouncing down inside inflated habs.)
    3. In-situ propellant production has already been demonstrated using simulated Mars inputs.
    4. We've had most of the other necessary re-entry heat shield, space suit, rover and other technology since Apollo, and the rest (mostly space suits and bigger rovers) are either relatively straightforward or outgrowths of things like the Shuttle EVA suit.
    The technology is ready for us. The problem is that we are fearful and refuse to take the idea seriously enough to put real effort into it. This is largely due to people (like the idiot BBC commentator this morning) who see Mars as a sideshow or even an immoral waste of resources. Their goals are served by pushing any real mission ever-further into the future, so that it never gets done. If you really DO want it done, you have to get to Mars before the political will to do it has been sapped by the obstructionists. This means that you cannot get to Mars in 20 years, you only have a hope of doing it if you do it in 10 or even 8.
    --
    Time is Nature's way of keeping everything from happening at once... the bitch.
  17. Re:Obvious quote: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    If ahm not me, who da hell am I?!

  18. pdf file mirror...just in case nasa can be /.'ed by silicon1 · · Score: 1, Informative
  19. Re:The technology is not the problem. Will is. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful
    even an immoral waste of resources.

    Which, quite frankly, is difficult to refute.

    Just to play a devil's advocate: what business do we have throwing our limited resources to other planets when we have so many problems already down here?

    I've never figured out an answer to that question without sounding like a cold-hearted bastard.

  20. Re:What? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    There's a whole bunch of unnecessary Terminator references that make it annoyingly difficult to read. But not impossible--that's the fault of the alcohol. Or maybe I'm just fucked up too.

    ...I am not your blowing wind, I am the lightning...

  21. Gunnm? by Briareos · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Maybe he finally got his ass in gear and is really making that Gunnm (aka Battle Angel Alita) movie he bought the rights to years ago - there's quite a few flashbacks to the main character's life on mars, especially in the sequel (or rather, the rewriting of the ending) called "Battle Angel Alita: Last Order" that's currently being released...

    np: Ulrich Schnauss - Clear Day (A Strangely Isolated Place)

    --

    "I'm not anti-anything, I'm anti-everything, it fits better." - Sole

    1. Re:Gunnm? by kachuik · · Score: 1

      Maybe the Red/Green/Blue Mars series he bought the right to?

  22. This is bad... by eln · · Score: 1

    If Skynet is scheduled to appear in 2026 (and we all know from T3 that it will become self-aware almost immediately after being activated), and Bush's plans for Mars don't call for a manned mission until 2030. then we're all doomed!

    Oh well, we had a good run.

  23. your sig by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0


    There's 10 kinds of people in this world. Those that understand binary and those that don't.

    (stolen from someone else's sig)

  24. The answer by Tau+Zero · · Score: 5, Insightful
    Just to play a devil's advocate: what business do we have throwing our limited resources to other planets when we have so many problems already down here?
    I am not a philosopher, but I've got these proposed responses:
    • Throwing resources? What's a few tons of aluminum to the Earth? All the money stays right here.

    • We are not throwing resources, we are exercising imagination and initiative. These are not limited resources, they are amplified by being used... and they are the same things needed to solve problems on earth.

    • "When there is no vision, the people perish." Giving people a reason to look up from their petty squabbles to see a possible future on another world might solve some of those problems. Crime fell drastically during the first Moon landings, because most everyone was glued to the story unfolding on live television. We should try to do this again.

    • Shouldn't we consider it a general religious imperative to learn what we can about where we came from and what else there is, starting with the history of other planets (including the life on them, if any)?
    That's hardly an exhaustive list, and it won't convince anybody who doesn't want to be convinced. But something along those lines might persuade even the moralists that they don't have the high ground all to themselves.
    --
    Time is Nature's way of keeping everything from happening at once... the bitch.
    1. Re:The answer by Neurotensor · · Score: 1

      We are not throwing resources, we are exercising imagination and initiative. These are not limited resources, they are amplified by being used... and they are the same things needed to solve problems on earth.

      Labour, clever people and energy are some of the limited resources that are consumed by such an endeavour. Consider if these could be used in a better way, such as to invent a way to de-pollute the atmosphere, replenish the ozone layer, or figure out how to stop people from starving to death.

      Crime fell drastically during the first Moon landings, because most everyone was glued to the story unfolding on live television. We should try to do this again.

      I think there are cheaper ways to reduce crime than send people to Mars. One such way is to teach them properly in school so that they are motivated to better themselves.

      Shouldn't we consider it a general religious imperative to learn what we can about where we came from and what else there is, starting with the history of other planets (including the life on them, if any)?

      We seem to be doing a pretty good job with unmanned probes. If we can visit all the planets in the solar system multiple times for the cost of one manned mission to Mars, I think we would learn more with the probes. As far as religious imperatives go, I seem to remember helping the poor and dying as being a priority. It ranks above curiosity in my mind. A good 80% of all humans live in poverty, with no hope of ever working their way out of it, and they probably don't care about what's on Mars.

      You can save an awful lot of starving people with the kind of money it would take to send people to Mars. It would create employment at home and in the communities needing help. It would create wealth by creating new customers who can afford to watch a Mars landing rather than trudging half a day to find pulluted drinking water. It would reduce the number of people supporting or becoming terrorists, since less people would be angry at the smug westerners who wouldn't help them out.

      If you're only going to spend a certain amount on non-essential projects, I think it should go to raising the worldwide standard of living until nobody has to die of starvation (what a horrible and helpless way to go, really). Of course some space missions could be considered essential, for the technology they generate. After all it might make it that much easier to help others with better technology at home.

    2. Re:The answer by blincoln · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Consider if these could be used in a better way, such as to invent a way to de-pollute the atmosphere, replenish the ozone layer, or figure out how to stop people from starving to death.

      This is a common argument, and I see three main problems with it.

      1 - It assumes an exclusive-or choice between the two. I fail to see why this is the case. There are plenty of smart people in the world to go around.

      2 - It assumes that people who are good at creating a space exploration program would be equally good at solving problems like starvation in poor countries. I also fail to see why this is the case. The skills and personal interests involved in those two projects are radically different.

      3 - The kind of worldwide problem-solving that people who make this argument always cite (e.g. feeding everyone in the world) is the kind of pie-in-the-sky goal that can (IMO) never really be met. I think that it is important to try and better the living standards of people who are in truly terrible situations, but OTOH unless there is an incredible shift in the nature of governments and societies everywhere then it's a project that will never be completed.

      The comparison that comes to mind for me is someone who says that they're going to put off having children until they have a US$1,000,000+ yearly salary, a huge house, four cars, and a personal jet. It's *possible* that it will happen, just unlikely.

      --
      "...always new atoms but always doing the same dance, remembering what the dance was yesterday." -Richard Feynman
    3. Re:The answer by Richard_at_work · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Consider if these could be used in a better way, such as to invent a way to de-pollute the atmosphere, replenish the ozone layer, or figure out how to stop people from starving to death.

      If there is one thing Science has shown us over the past 200 years, it is that more people working on a project does not necessarily get it done faster. Most of the scientific advances in that period were done by either single people, or very small groups of people. Throwing every clever person in the world at a problem isnt going to get it done any faster. Throwing the right person at a problem will. The people working on space missions have done so BECAUSE THATS THEIR CHOICE. They worked to get where they are, where the hell do you get off saying their resources "could be used in a better way"?

      Depollute the atmosphere - Earth does a good enough job of that on its own. It has dealt with worse things than humans in the past, and the things which we can do to limit pollution are being done already.

      Replenish the ozone layer - again, leave it to earth. Our limitation actions are helping with this regard - the ozone hole over the south pole has decreased in size recently.

      Figure out how to stop people from starving to death - Every year, more than a $Billion is spent sending aid to countrys that need it (world wide spendature here). Much more is sent in physical aid such as food. Show me the demonstratable permanent good this has achieved? None. Hunger still exists, droughts still happen, famines still occur and people still die. 9 times out of 10, these occur in countries that are war torn, have armed conflicts occuring, or are open to natural disasters. None of these are solvable by science, so throwing the resources that would otherwise be used on space is pointless.

      there are cheaper ways to reduce crime than send people to Mars. One such way is to teach them properly in school so that they are motivated to better themselves. - maybe so, but have you looked around and seen how often fraud or other crimes are commited by people with millions in the bank, its a lot often than you think. People bettering themselves does not by far fix the underlying social issues.

      We seem to be doing a pretty good job with unmanned probes. If we can visit all the planets in the solar system multiple times for the cost of one manned mission to Mars, I think we would learn more with the probes. - Oh yes. Now imagine if this had been the case when the Americas were discovered? Imagine hard. Yup, I think you have it - no USA, no Canada, no Mexico, no Argentina, no Brazil, no Peru (and any others I forget :) ). The established western world would have been all there was. Saying its stupid to send manned missions to places that have no immediate financial reward is basically capitalism boiling to the surface.

      It would reduce the number of people supporting or becoming terrorists, since less people would be angry at the smug westerners who wouldn't help them out. - This is probably the worst statement ive seen in a long time. Terrorists have never stated that there are financial reasons for the acts they carried out. Infact a lot of terrorism occurs BECAUSE the western world helped them out. Look at any terrorism going on atm, its either "freedom fighting" or "religious" based. You are never going to solve any of these issues, its just human nature (religion is possibly the worst thing that has ever occurred to humanity, its caused more strife than anything else, and it does it all in the name of "God", and entity we can never confer with to find out if he really does agree with these actions)

      Ever heard the term "Give a man a fish, he will eat for a day. Teach a man to fish, he will eat for the rest of his life."? THats what we should be doing, not throwing our resources to eliminate the symptoms. Why are people fighting, which causes famine? Why are people trying to survive on land which has p

    4. Re:The answer by 10Ghz · · Score: 1

      It never occured to you that space-exploration might (and would) indirectly help to solve the problem on Earth? Thanks to space-exploration, we could invent better methods at generating electricity. We could invent better recycling-methods. We could invent new and stronger alloys that could be used in lots of different things.

      The possibilities are endless. People like you suffer from extreme case of short-sightedness.

      --
      Lesbian Nazi Hookers Abducted by UFOs and Forced Into Weight Loss Programs - -all next week on Town Talk.
    5. Re:The answer by drooling-dog · · Score: 1
      Throwing resources? What's a few tons of aluminum to the Earth? All the money stays right here.

      Which is precisely why these missions could be funded by voluntary $10,000 contributions from right-minded individuals such as yourself, who alone understand that it doesn't really cost - it pays!

    6. Re:The answer by fucksl4shd0t · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I'll bite, too. :)

      The main problem with the general argument in the GP is that we will not be able to solve all of our human problems before conquering the heavens. We'll be extinct before that happens. Many of the problems that exist down here have existed amongst humans for all of recorded history, and we have reason to believe they existed long before recorded history began. If we achieve a utopia where all of these problems are solved, then we won't need to go into space anymore.

      That said:

      You can save an awful lot of starving people with the kind of money it would take to send people to Mars. It would create employment at home and in the communities needing help. It would create wealth by creating new customers who can afford to watch a Mars landing rather than trudging half a day to find pulluted drinking water. It would reduce the number of people supporting or becoming terrorists, since less people would be angry at the smug westerners who wouldn't help them out.

      AND

      As far as religious imperatives go, I seem to remember helping the poor and dying as being a priority. It ranks above curiosity in my mind. A good 80% of all humans live in poverty, with no hope of ever working their way out of it, and they probably don't care about what's on Mars.

      AND

      I think it should go to raising the worldwide standard of living until nobody has to die of starvation (what a horrible and helpless way to go, really).

      Can all be solved by:

      I think there are cheaper ways to reduce crime than send people to Mars. One such way is to teach them properly in school so that they are motivated to better themselves.

      So what's left from your post that you haven't already solved?

      Labour, clever people and energy are some of the limited resources that are consumed by such an endeavour. Consider if these could be used in a better way, such as to invent a way to de-pollute the atmosphere, replenish the ozone layer,

      And once again, dealing with pollution and the ozone layer are problems that have been demonstrated are solvable with better education.

      Here's some interesting conclusions I've made. If you want to raise the standard of living amongst those who are poverty-stricken, you must raise the average standard of living in the area. If you try to address the poverty-stricken areas specifically, you won't make a lasting change. But if you address all areas simultaneously in order to raise the average, you will make a lasting change. Ultimately, it's raising the average standard of living that is the purpose of the space program.

      --
      Like what I said? You might like my music
    7. Re:The answer by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Good idea. Tell you what: repeal the income tax, and I'll be thrilled to donate $10,000 towards a Mars mission. We could set up an X-Prize for it. Everybody who wants to can commit funds, payable when we have enough commitments to fully fund the prize.

      Only reason I can't afford that kind of contribution is that I pay more than twice that much per year in federal income tax. As long as the government is stealing my money, I'd appreciate it if they'd do something worthwhile.

    8. Re:The answer by drooling-dog · · Score: 1

      It'd be interesting if we could all redirect a small portion of our tax payments to programs of our choice, wouldn't it? They could receive some base level of funding, and the rest of their money would come from these "discretionary" contributions. The main problem would be with planning and budgeting, but it might not be much worse than what goes on now...

    9. Re:The answer by salesgeek · · Score: 1

      Just to play a devil's advocate: what business do we have throwing our limited resources to other planets when we have so many problems already down here?

      Many of the technologies developed in going to Mars will have direct impact on problems here on earth. It's not as if we can't work on problems here and getting to there (just in case we can't solve the problems here)...

      --
      -- $G
    10. Re:The answer by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Exactly. In our modern era, Starvation is not a technological problem, it is a political problem.

    11. Re:The answer by Mr.+Slippery · · Score: 1
      There are plenty of smart people in the world to go around.

      Where is this world where you live, and can I move there?

      --
      Tom Swiss | the infamous tms | my blog
      You cannot wash away blood with blood
    12. Re:The answer by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Where is this world where you live, and can I move there?"

      Corze not!!! You're not clever enough and you would ruin our statistics

    13. Re:The answer by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think you *really* believe what you say. It's just amazing how naive a Northamerican can manage to be!

    14. Re:The answer by Richard_at_work · · Score: 1

      I think you *really* believe what you say. It's just amazing how naive a Northamerican can manage to be!

      Im British thankyou very much. I know what Im talking about.

    15. Re:The answer by log0n · · Score: 1

      Shouldn't we consider it a general religious imperative to learn what we can about where we came from and what else there is, starting with the history of other planets (including the life on them, if any)?


      The religious response would be that faith tells us where we came from, and that everything not understood/unexplained is a matter of faith, etc.

      You can't reason with a mindset that requires unmitigated acceptance of closed mindedness :>

  25. Re:I'm confused. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I think that any kind of exploration should always try to acquire the highest level of imaging. That's how you engage people -- you can put them there, give them the sense that they're standing there on the surface of Mars. But that's just my personal opinion.

  26. Talk about editors allowing MISLEADING LINKS by Crypto+Gnome · · Score: 1

    HTML my Aunt FANNYs ass! That "HTML" link is just the entire document converted into Macromedia FLASH and embedded in a webpage.

    DUMBASSES! What about people who don't have a graphical browser? Clicking on that HTML link is just a waste of their time.

    I know it's asking a lot expecting Journalistic Integrity on Slashdot, but EDITORS PLEASE don't link to a bazillion pages of bandwidth hogging useless for anything worthwhile FLASH and then call it HTML.

    --
    Visit CryptoGnome in his home.
    1. Re:Talk about editors allowing MISLEADING LINKS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You, sir, are a weenie. Unless you're blind, would you explain to me why you're not using a graphical browser?

      DUMBASS! Here's step-by-step instructions:

      * Admit that using lynx to view webpages is just fan-boy gay. Admitting that you have a problem is always the first step.

      * Close lynx

      * Type STARTX

      * Marvel at all the pretty colors

      * Look at the many browser choices! Pick one (Mozilla is pretty neat).

      * After browsing, shut down computer and step out into the big blue room with the right light. Try to get a life.

  27. A normal HTML page would be nice by cmacb · · Score: 4, Insightful

    That is the weirdest HTML formatted article I have ever seen. Let me guess... they converted a DOC file to PDF, printed it, faxed it to themselves, scanned it and then ran it through a OCR to HTML conversion program using a Microsoft designed XML parser (Patented of course!)

    Gees whatever happened to content oriented plain old HTML.

    *shakes head*

    I'll read the friggin thing when I have a couple of hours to wait for the pages to load.

    PS: for anyone else having trouble: you have to click on those microscopic VCR style buttons at the top of the page to get the page transitions. Then go get a cup of coffee.

    1. Re:A normal HTML page would be nice by Crypto+Gnome · · Score: 1

      Nope. They converted the PDFs to FLASH, and then embedded the flash into a webpage.

      I understand that "in a webpage" technically means that it's HTML , but for all in tents and purposes, zero content of the document is HTML.

      It's all in this "must have some plugin" format guaranteed to piss people off when you claim it's a link to HTML.

      --
      Visit CryptoGnome in his home.
    2. Re:A normal HTML page would be nice by fucksl4shd0t · · Score: 1

      Just a note, this is the funniest thing I've ever read:

      but for all in tents and purposes

      --
      Like what I said? You might like my music
    3. Re:A normal HTML page would be nice by thatguywhoiam · · Score: 1
      I'll read the friggin thing when I have a couple of hours to wait for the pages to load.

      Dude, you are hilarious! You have a structural problem with the page?? I didn't even notice...

      *shakes head*

      That makes two of us...

      --
      If Jesus wants me it knows where to find me.
    4. Re:A normal HTML page would be nice by Jeff+DeMaagd · · Score: 1

      You mean it wasn't a *.swf? Once I saw the Firebird adblock tab at the top, I just downloaded the PDFs. The PDFs are fine, all directly machine generated rather than passed through a scanner, etc.

    5. Re:A normal HTML page would be nice by cmacb · · Score: 1

      Yes I did have problems with it.

      I started reading (thinking it was just HTML as advertised) and when I got to the bottom of the first page I clicked on the graphic down there (assuming it would take me to the next page). I still don't know what that graphic represents, but it doesn't do anything.

      I finally looked up top, but with hard-coded font sizes on that frame and my 1600x1400 screen size the word "Brows" is almost microscopic, and its actually quite difficult to hit the page forward button without accidentally hitting one of the nearby buttons.

      This is horrible web design by any standards.

      A quick look at the source for that header frame (looks to be a couple hundred lines!) shows checks for specific browsers and OSs...sure enough it doesn't work on my iBook at all.

      I also don't see the normal alternate text tags for people with disabilities.

      They should have just posed links to the PDF file for download, or even a DOC file that I could easily read with Open Office, or better yet, produce a true HTML version of the document.

      So, from your point of view, what is there about this page to like?

    6. Re:A normal HTML page would be nice by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You cannot share http://marsrovers.jpl.nasa.gov without flash.

      Or with the 4 billion other people, including that site's nice flash clock, because you are not happy with html tags for *.swf?

      That has been so 1998 as far as browser compatibility. Technical people unfamiliar with 99% plug-in coverage for Flash [or SVG], if they don't know what it is, should stay away from NASA or the web generally.

  28. News for Nreds, Stuff that Matters by Crypto+Gnome · · Score: 4, Insightful

    From the HTML page of the PDFs

    Stephen J. Hoffman, Editor
    David L. Kaplan, Editor
    Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center
    Houston, Texas


    July 1997

    And this is NEWs how exactly?

    --
    Visit CryptoGnome in his home.
    1. Re:News for Nreds, Stuff that Matters by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      It looks like Cameron [2003-4] has added pictures to ilustrate the original Mars reference design [1997], assuming you read the post. Cameron's complaint was no one reads these designs for lack of visual information, which seems to be the case.

    2. Re:News for Nreds, Stuff that Matters by Jeff+DeMaagd · · Score: 2, Informative

      I think the news part is the Cameron commisioned designs, based on the 1997 mission references and the inspirations of the recent landers that the director got from them.

  29. let me ask by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Are you implying that this article shouldn't have been posted? If it were up to you would you have it removed? If not, then why the hell are you bitching about it?

  30. whiney bitch by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    somebody hurry up and get this guy a box of tissues. make sure they're the really soft ones with aloe, otherwise we'll have to hear him whine about that too.

  31. Design Reference Mission? by Trejkaz · · Score: 4, Funny

    Finally a DRM we don't need to attack.

    --
    Karma: It's all a bunch of tree-huggin' hippy crap!
    1. Re:Design Reference Mission? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      But Linux did it first with Direct Rendering Manager :)

    2. Re:Design Reference Mission? by Trejkaz · · Score: 1

      Good call. Every time I go through 'make menuconfig' and see DRM, I crap my pants, and then I eventually regain sanity and realise what it is. This will probably repeat forever.

      --
      Karma: It's all a bunch of tree-huggin' hippy crap!
  32. I think I speak for everyone when I say.... by Braintrust · · Score: 1

    ... yes, yes, you're an intelligent, thoughtful, and caring man, James Cameron, you have interests outside of directing Hollywood blockbusters, you have a hand in some very important work... etc, ad infinitum, and so on...

    Now PLEASE PLEASE! make us a great big shiny, blow-your-socks-OFF, good old-fashioned Hollywood blockbuster...!

    You can even set it in space, or underwater if you'd like... just make it shiny.

    That's all we're asking dude...

    Peace

    --
    Years later, a doctor will tell me that I have an I.Q. of 48, and am what some people call "mentally retarded".
    1. Re:I think I speak for everyone when I say.... by cowboykitty · · Score: 1

      He is working on it. That is part of the reason why he gave up on T3. He has something special planned. Be prepared to wear glasses while you are watching it though :)

  33. Inflatable habitat by Muhammar · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Mars is a very windy and cold place. Hard-shell from composite pieces - the kind of they use in Antarctica - seem more appropriate habitat. The weight of shell is not that big - compared to the weight of all the necessery food, air, water and life-support equipment. (They can place inflatable tent inside the shell - to keep the leaks down).

    --
    I doubt that we will ever figure out - and I suspect that even if we did figure out we couldn't do much about it
  34. Re:I'm confused. by BiggerIsBetter · · Score: 1

    To inspire people. Especially people those who lack the creativity or courage to imagine such things. People like politicians, and the masses who vote for them.

    --
    Forget thrust, drag, lift and weight. Airplanes fly because of money.
  35. Will is not the problem. Cost is. by sunspot42 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    None of the components you listed in your message do us much good for a manned Mars exploration program. Take the Shuttle engines you list as one component. Only they aren't. They're needed in the (remaining) Shuttles. We'd have to build more of them to make a Mars mission possible before the end of the next decade - many, many more of them. It would take several launches just to get the gadgets to Mars to make liquid water and oxygen and hydrogen and everything else for the astronauts to use once they finally arrived. It would take still more engines to get the astronauts and their giant spaceship into earth orbit. And more still to get their fuel and supplies for the outbound trip into orbit. The whole project would probably require boosting into orbit about as much mass as the ISS project - a project that'll end up costing us in excess of $100 billion.

    And how do you get those Shuttle-derived engines back to earth after launch? Or do you just throw them away at X-million dollars a pop? That's gonna add up fast. Maybe you design and build a new Shuttle to haul stuff into orbit, so you can get your $100 million engines back. But whoops - it costs $10 billion to design and build a new Shuttle, and billions more to operate it.

    As for landing on the Red Planet, we've had trouble with that ourselves recently (Mars Polar Lander), and we'd been doing it successfully since the mid-'70s. Designing and building a man-rated lander for Mars (one that cannot fail) could easily run up a billion in design costs. Then there are the cargo / habitat landers, which also cannot fail. Chuck in another billion. Plus a billion more to design and build the habitats, and another couple of billion to get them all to Mars. That's a LOT of mass to haul into earth orbit and then blast out to Mars.

    In-situ propellant production may have been demonstrated in the lab here on earth, but we don't know yet if it would even work on Mars. Right now we're having trouble getting simple robot rovers to function correctly, at $400 million a pop. What you're proposing is that we drop a small chemical factory on Mars, along with an automated tractor and bulldozer to haul it icy rock for processing. It could easily cost $10 billion to design and build such a setup, plus a billion more to get it to Mars.

    The heat shields would also have to be pretty heavy-duty, since unlike Apollo or the Shuttles, these Mars vehicles are going to be traveling at interplanetary velocities. Because we'll want to minimize the astronauts' exposure to lethal doses of interplanetary radiation, as well as the amount of food and water needed to sustain them (costs a fortune to haul that stuff into orbit), their spacecraft is going to have to be traveling fast, and their landers are going to have to rely on the Martian atmosphere to slow them down.

    Their rovers would also need to be far more durable than the moonbuggy used by the Apollo astronauts, since most plans call for the astronauts to remain on Mars for weeks at least, if not a year or more. The Marsbuggy could itself cost in excess of a billion to design, and another billion to build.

    And since these guys are going to be there longer, in the hard radiation environment of Mars, they're going to need spacesuits that are far more durable, far better shielded against radiation, and far less susceptible to damage (from abrasive or chemically-reactive dust in particular) than the Apollo or Shuttle-era suits. Again, you could be talking a billion or more just to design and develop such suits, and heaven knows how much to build them. And with all that radiation shielding they're likely to be heavy as heck, too. Add millions more just to transport them to Mars.

    I haven't even touched on all the other tech needed to get the astronauts there and back again safely and quickly. Large, powerful nuclear reactors will be needed to supply them with electrical power and probably power their engines. I can't see doing this practically or reliably with chemical rockets

  36. mars by rotciv86 · · Score: 1

    Those rovers look like they could be fun, I wanna go to mars.

    --


    My ghEtt0 webpage.
  37. Terminator? Sounds more like Aliens. by Lars+T. · · Score: 1

    nt

    --

    Lars T.

    To the guy who modded me down from perfect to terrible Karma - Apple haters still suck

    1. Re:Terminator? Sounds more like Aliens. by Lars+T. · · Score: 1

      Or The Abyss or even Titanic. He did more than just the first two Terminator movies.

      --

      Lars T.

      To the guy who modded me down from perfect to terrible Karma - Apple haters still suck

  38. exploremarsnow.org by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

    A more complete study of a different approach is available online for anyone to view at Explore Mars Now. It's a flash tour of a possible first manned mars landing environment that is based on the virtual tour of the actual Mars Arctic Research Station.

    But apparently nobody cares because it wasn't commisioned by a well known director with a fetish for explosions.

  39. Propulsion technology is the problem by citanon · · Score: 1

    Since kinetic energy is equal to one half the mass times the square of the velocity, the upper limit in the speed at which propellant is ejected puts a lower limit on the amount of propellant a spacecraft must carry. This sets a limitation in the amount of actual cargo that could be carried to Mars and the speed at which the cargo could get there.

    Chemical rockets eject propellant at relatively low speed that gives rise to three crucial problems.

    1. A mission will take at least one and a half years.

    2. The spacecraft cannot carry and adequate amount of water for radiation shielding.

    3. The spacecraft must make propellant and fuel for the return trip ON MARS.

    As the Mars Reference Mission shows, such plans so exist, but are they really doable. They have a host of problems that may not be surmountable.

    1. The missions are incredibly complex. If any part of the mission fails, the chances of survival for the crew will be slim. Given the 50% success rate of Mars missions to date, this doesn't look so good.

    2. The combined effects of low gravity and inadequate radiation shielding (space craft can't carry the extra mass requred) may mean that astronauts will be physically very weak or even ill by the time they reach Mars.

    3. A two year mission to Mars will require that astronauts recycle almost all of the resources aboard, including oxygen, food, and human waste. To date, such technology has never worked well enough for a two year mission. Biosphere 2, for example didn't work for still undetermined reason and it was right here on Earth.

    Going to Mars using chemical rockets is a Hail Mary mission. Even if it worked once, it would not lead to any thing like the sort of routine exploratory activity that we want to see happen. What we need to do is develop nuclear propulsion, which promises an order of magnitude increase in spacecraft speed and cargo capacity.

    1. Re:Propulsion technology is the problem by Goonie · · Score: 2, Interesting
      The missions are incredibly complex. If any part of the mission fails, the chances of survival for the crew will be slim. Given the 50% success rate of Mars missions to date, this doesn't look so good.

      That's not true. The key trick with these plans is that you send the return vehicle first, and let it land and produce the propellant for the return trip before you ever launch the human crew. If you lose the return vehicle as it lands on Mars, it's a setback for the program, but nobody dies.

      The combined effects of low gravity and inadequate radiation shielding (space craft can't carry the extra mass requred) may mean that astronauts will be physically very weak or even ill by the time they reach Mars.

      Solar storms are a real concern, but best as I understand things there's little risk of prompt radiation sickness from the cosmic ray dosage on a Mars mission. Zero-g is a concern, but they could always use artificial gravity by spinning the craft.

      A two year mission to Mars will require that astronauts recycle almost all of the resources aboard, including oxygen, food, and human waste. To date, such technology has never worked well enough for a two year mission. Biosphere 2, for example didn't work for still undetermined reason and it was right here on Earth.

      I dunno about oxygen and water, but as I understand they plan to take all their food with them. While on Mars, there will be surplus oxygen available from the propellant production, so air recycling shouldn't be an issue there, and you can take a little extra hydrogen along to make lots of water.

      --

      Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from a rigged demo
      --Andy Finkel (J. Klass?)
    2. Re:Propulsion technology is the problem by citanon · · Score: 1

      Goonie,

      The question is, are you going to let the machines sit there on Mars for a year as your crew is trying to get there. Remember that the Martian environment is incredibly dusty, and that nothing from earth has spent more than 90 days up and running on Mars. Now, are you going to be able to monitor the machines well enough to be able to say that they'll still work when the crew gets there? Actually, monitoring isn't even a problem since once you've launched your crew, you can't recall them no matter what happens during the year that it'll take them to get there.

      A launch window to Mars comes every two years. The unmanned portions will probably cost many billions of dollars on their own. If you loose them, not only will you have to wait two years to try again, but you've also lost 10 billion dollars. With prospects like that, this is a one shot, do it on the first try or fail deal. If you do fail, you can kiss human exploration of Mars good bye for a nother couple of decades.

      As for radiation, there's an estimated cosmic-ray dosag, and then there's the worst case scenario. You could hope for fair space weather, but how likely are you to get storms that will seriously harm the crew? With solar storm activity at record levels in the past year, basing crew protection around some average expected dosage doesn't sound so good. As for spinning the craft, that's just one more potential point of failure.

      For a two year mission, you'll have to take a lot of stuff with you if you're not going to recycle everything and you want some margin of safety in case propellant production doesn't go as planned. You might be able to take enough raw materials, but where does that leave the instruments you need to do good science?

      All in all, the reference design sounds like a very expensive and very risky flag waving exercise where the crew will be spending all of their time and effort just trying to survive. What we need to push forward in space is reasonably cost effective and safe missions on which one could do
      good science. Clearly, we are not at that point technologically.

      Hopefully, the president's reforms at NASA and manned exploration program will move us in the right direction, technologically and organizationally.

    3. Re:Propulsion technology is the problem by sunspot42 · · Score: 1

      >A launch window to Mars comes every two years.
      >The unmanned portions will probably cost many
      >billions of dollars on their own. If you loose
      >them, not only will you have to wait two years
      >to try again, but you've also lost 10 billion
      >dollars.

      That's correct. And it brings up another problem you'd have to plan for - what if you've built the manned portion of your program, have it gassed up and ready to go, and then find out your fuel factory on Mars just exploded? Is it going to be OK to leave your manned Mars rocket sitting around in Florida (or in orbit) for two years until your launch window opens up again? Or make that 4 years, since you'll need to send out another gas station first.

      We all remember what happened to Galileo while it sat around for a few years after the Challenger explosion - some lubricant apparently leaked out of the mechanism that unfurled its high-gain antenna, crippling its ability to communicate with earth. A manned Mars probe is going to be vastly more complex than Galileo. Are you going to design and build it so it can properly withstand up to 4 years in storage, either here on Earth or in orbit? Or if something goes wrong with your gas station are you simply going to dispose of it and build another one? Either way, properly preparing for this contingency could add a billion or more to the cost of the mission . . . and NOT preparing for it could prove even more costly should something actually malfunction on the Mars end.

      >You might be able to take enough raw materials, but
      >where does that leave the instruments you need to do
      >good science?

      And how much would those instruments cost? After all, anything electronic you send to Mars is going to have to be as radiation-hardened as it gets. Marsies talk about a solar "storm cellar" to protect the astronauts in the case of flare or cosmic ray activity, but what about the electronics? The Japanese just lost a Mars probe thanks in part to solar flares. If you aren't going to properly shield the entire vehicle, you're going to at least have to shield the electronics and use radiation-hardened circuits. That's going to up the cost of the electronics aboard this mission considerably compared to the Shuttle and the ISS, neither of which has to deal with that kind of space radiation environment.

      This whole misadventure has boondoggle written all over it. There are enough hidden costs and gotchas to make a used car dealer's head spin.

    4. Re:Propulsion technology is the problem by Goonie · · Score: 1
      The question is, are you going to let the machines sit there on Mars for a year as your crew is trying to get there. Remember that the Martian environment is incredibly dusty, and that nothing from earth has spent more than 90 days up and running on Mars. Now, are you going to be able to monitor the machines well enough to be able to say that they'll still work when the crew gets there? Actually, monitoring isn't even a problem since once you've launched your crew, you can't recall them no matter what happens during the year that it'll take them to get there.

      As I understand the plan, propellant production will have ceased by the time the crew ship has launched. The return rocket just has to sit there for six months, not do anything. Yes, it is a concern that it might break down in the interim, but surely it's easier to simply batten down the hatches for six months than active conduct a scientific mission like the unmanned missions are doing.

      Personally, I like the idea of sending two return vehicles and propellant plants on the first mission as a safety backup.

      As for radiation, there's an estimated cosmic-ray dosag, and then there's the worst case scenario. You could hope for fair space weather, but how likely are you to get storms that will seriously harm the crew? With solar storm activity at record levels in the past year, basing crew protection around some average expected dosage doesn't sound so good. As for spinning the craft, that's just one more potential point of failure.

      Manned mission advocates claim that their designs have adequate "storm shelters" for solar storms. I'm not qualified to assess that claim.

      For a two year mission, you'll have to take a lot of stuff with you if you're not going to recycle everything and you want some margin of safety in case propellant production doesn't go as planned. You might be able to take enough raw materials, but where does that leave the instruments you need to do good science?

      Again, the plan is to produce all the propellant, oxygen, and water you need on Mars before the crew leaves Earth. As I understand it, the logistic needs have been worked out quite carefully, and the mission plans proposed so far have left several tonnes spare for science gear.

      --

      Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from a rigged demo
      --Andy Finkel (J. Klass?)
    5. Re:Propulsion technology is the problem by CaptainAvatar · · Score: 1
      The question is, are you going to let the machines sit there on Mars for a year as your crew is trying to get there. Remember that the Martian environment is incredibly dusty, and that nothing from earth has spent more than 90 days up and running on Mars.

      Not so. The Viking 1 lander was operational for over 6 years, while the Viking 2 lander lasted 3.5 years (see here). So, yes, I think we can manage a year or 18 months.

      Read The Case for Mars . Zubrin has covered your objections there.

      --
      The real Captain Avatar is a fictional character, so I suppose he doesn't mind if I impersonate him.
    6. Re:Propulsion technology is the problem by KewlPC · · Score: 1

      3. A two year mission to Mars will require that astronauts recycle almost all of the resources aboard, including oxygen, food, and human waste. To date, such technology has never worked well enough for a two year mission. Biosphere 2, for example didn't work for still undetermined reason and it was right here on Earth.


      What? BioSphere2 failed mainly due to inadequate planning and design. For example, the concrete used to build parts of the structure was absorbing oxygen. Using BioSphere2 as an example for anything is stupid, as BioSphere2 was mainly a tourist attraction, with scientific value being secondary.

      I've actually been to the BioSphere2, BTW. Have you?
    7. Re:Propulsion technology is the problem by KewlPC · · Score: 1

      You realize that the Mars Pathfinder lander stopped functioning because its batteries died, right? The constant drain-recharge cycle wrecked them.

      Viking I used RTGs for power, though, and lasted for about 6 years. Viking II, which also used RTGs, lasted for 3.5 years.

      Secondly, it doesn't take a year to get to Mars. In fact, it only takes about 6 months.

      Thirdly, research and development costs are a big reason projects like the 2 Mars Exploration Rovers cost so much. If NASA decided that they wanted to re-use the design of the MERs for future Mars rover missions, the vehicles themselves would probably only cost a few million apiece. They'd already know all the ins and outs of the design, what the vehicles are and aren't capable of, that the components can handle the harsh environment, etc.

  40. Re:The technology is not the problem. Will is. by Aglassis · · Score: 5, Insightful

    You said: "Just to play a devil's advocate: what business do we have throwing our limited resources to other planets when we have so many problems already down here?"

    I can answer that with a simple quote from Larry Niven: The dinosaurs went extinct because they didn't have a space program.

    Its a silly quote but its very true. The probability of humanity being destroyed or anhillating itself will drop dramatically once we have a self-sustaining colony on an extraterrestial object. Its like insurance for humanity in a way.

    --
    Suddenly, the hairy finger of a familiar monkey tapped me on the shoulder. It was time.--G. T.
  41. Winds not going to blow tent over by Goonie · · Score: 2, Informative

    Whilst Mars can apparently get windy, it's hardly likely to blow the tent over. The atmosphere is only about 1% as dense as our own, so the force on the dome will be correspondingly reduced.

    --

    Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from a rigged demo
    --Andy Finkel (J. Klass?)
  42. just a lil' paranoia by salparadyse · · Score: 1

    anyone noticed the similarity between certain areas of iraq and the recently shown "footage of mars"??

    1. Re:just a lil' paranoia by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      anyone noticed the similarity between certain areas of arizona and the recently shown "footage of iraq"??

  43. Re:The technology is not the problem. Will is. by Dylan_t_p · · Score: 1

    yea....until the martians eat our faces!! :)

  44. Re:I'm confused. by Monkey+Liar · · Score: 0

    To inspire people. Especially people those who lack the creativity or courage to imagine such things. People like politicians, and the masses who vote for them.

    good point. I was blinded by my obsession with the movie Aliens for a minute there. I almost forgot it's Bush who wants to take us to mars.

    --
    He who fights with Monkeys must take it upon himself not to become a Monkey.
  45. James Cameron owns Mars Trilogy Rights by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

    James Cameron owns the screen adaptation rights to Kim Stanley Robinsons Red Mars, Green Mars, Blue Mars Trilogy.

    This probably means that at last the books are being adapted for the screen...

  46. fake landing by Krafty+Koder · · Score: 1

    Hey! With James Cameron designing the spaceships, we're well on our way to faking a Mars landing - in just the same kind of way that the original moon landings were faked.
    And it gets around the budget deficit problem too.

  47. plot thickens.... by ibm1130 · · Score: 1

    Some years ago Cameron toured the NASA simulator facility at Ames Research Center. He was interested in seeing the Mars database that was installed on the airline grade flight sims. SOunds like interest is picking up again. Gee, I wonder why that could be :)

  48. Re:Will is not the problem. Cost is. by TheScottishGuy · · Score: 1

    billion here billion there, shit that could start adding up to real money!

  49. just a link by mobby_6kl · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    with some Arnie fun

  50. Re:pdf file mirror...just in case nasa can be /.'e by Pidder · · Score: 1

    Good idea.. those 128kbit/s to mars isn't exactely top notch.

  51. Inflatable Inhabitants? by 955301 · · Score: 1


    I think NASA would frown on bringing blow-up dolls on a major mission such as this. I mean, sure we're human and there are some idiosyncrasies that come along with that, but couldn't they hook up with each other and ....

    oh. nevermind then.

    --
    You are checking your backups, aren't you?
  52. Instead of making cute jokes.... by __aaltii7299 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Maybe some of you should RTFA, and see just how much work Cameron put into his research. And check out the hardware designs and mission framework he came up with.
    "The thing I found about human mission architectures for going to Mars is that if you change one piece or one assumption, it has a ripple effect through the whole thing, and it looks different coming out the other end. You do things differently, your spacecraft are configured differently, your surface mission looks different, the time you spend on the planet looks different. So a certain set of fundamental assumptions had to be made and then we had to design everything for what it was going to look like."

  53. Spoken like a stereotypical college leftist by Tau+Zero · · Score: 1
    You show signs of a proper indoctrination into the Politically Correct mode of thinking (Politically Correct being a euphemism for bullshit). I'm going to try to shake you up a bit (this may hurt if the positions are dear to you).

    Labour, clever people and energy are some of the limited resources that are consumed by such an endeavour. Consider if these could be used in a better way, such as to invent a way to de-pollute the atmosphere, replenish the ozone layer, or figure out how to stop people from starving to death.

    It is easy to refute every assertion you made (and yes I love lists):

    1. Smart people tend to enter career paths which capture their imaginations. Do you want them to go into science and technology which expands human capability, or into zero-sum career paths like law and politics which mainly restrict and redistribute the products of others? There was a huge surge in interest in the hard sciences in the USA during the heyday of the space program, whereas interest now goes toward law and business schools (not the kind of creativity that solves the issues you hold forth as problems).

      Look around you. Are you blind? Have you failed to notice that one of the complaints on Slashdot is that creative jobs are hard to find, and creative technical people are unemployed? There are millions of sharp people entering the technical labor force in places like China and India. When companies are chasing lower wages by opening new supplies, it makes excellent sense to add a bit to the demand and stop wasting that talent in unemployment lines.

      Finally, it's ridiculous to think that smart people are "consumed" in such pursuits. Everything they produce has multiple uses, and one of the most easily multiplied is hope. If people believe that any technical problem can be solved, and many more of them have the education and expertise to do it, you're not going to convince many serious thinkers that the problem becomes harder rather than easier to attack. (People who are mindlessly repeating the position adopted by their political in-group, or who find it harder to break ranks with their friends than to follow reason, will not be convinced regardless. I suspect you are in this group.)

    2. The energy use is trivial. Take one supertanker's worth of oil, multiply by the number which fill and sail per day just from the Middle East, and compare against the fuel requirements to launch 2 year's worth of a Mars exploration program. If you think there is any significance to the latter compared to the former, you are smoking crack. Or perhaps you are just innumerate.
    3. Do you seriously think that we'd learn nothing about de-polluting an atmosphere by having to maintain one that's mission-critical?
    4. The ozone layer is a solved problem. Note that the key to the solution was in the hands of the scientists who asked the questions about where all the chlorine in those refrigerants and aerosol propellants was going, and the engineers who designed systems to use different refrigerants. You write like a Brit; you owe the fact that you can buy a refrigerator chilled by isobutane (no halogens at all) to those scientists and engineers.
    5. Last, people don't starve to death because of a lack of food production, people starve because of belligerent or political interference with their production and supplies. If you wanted to end starvation in Zimbabwe, you would do it much more quickly and permanently by sending a military force to capture or kill Robert Mugabe and his cronies than by sending shiploads of corn.

    I suspect that you find much of this out-of-the-box thinking to be heretical, especially that last. That would say a lot about you.

    I think there are cheaper ways to reduce crime than send people to Mars. One such way is to teach them properly in school so that they are motivated to better themselves.

    How do you motivate them? People are motivated by images and ideas; m

    --
    Time is Nature's way of keeping everything from happening at once... the bitch.
    1. Re:Spoken like a stereotypical college leftist by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Common, man, don't equate this guy's views with the "left". I lean a bit more to the left than to the right and agree with most everything you've said.

  54. Re:The technology is not the problem. Will is. by JaredOfEuropa · · Score: 1
    The problem is that we are fearful and refuse to take the idea seriously enough to put real effort into it. This is largely due to people (like the idiot BBC commentator this morning) who see Mars as a sideshow or even an immoral waste of resources.
    The real problem, of course, is money. Politicians aren't keen on spending billions on science projects that are perceived to be risky, and that will only come to results after their own term in office has ended. The politicians in my own country especially concern themselves mostly with practical matters (which are important enough, sure), but hardly ever with visionary stuff such as a mission to Mars... there is always some practical problem to fix first: health care, unemployment, lack of yellow-striped seabass in the North Sea, whatever.

    Gah, we should go already... We, as a tiny country, didn't balk at wasting $10 billion on two utterly useless railroads. I really, really wish that we would give the same $10 billion to a mission that may well be the hardest thing we as a species have ever done. A mission that, one century from now, may be seen as the most significant endeavour of our age. People living in space and on Mars will remember this and say "that is when it all began". And we can be a part of all that! We may yet live to see it happen!

    Yeah, I'm a dreamer. But it's dreams like this that make us a great species, despite our many problems.
    --
    If construction was anything like programming, an incorrectly fitted lock would bring down the entire building...
  55. Re:The technology is not the problem. Will is. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

    Easy answer: there are enormous resources in space. Over the long haul (say two centuries) we can solve a lot of problems on Earth by going to space.

    Tired of stripmining mountains? There are plenty of asteroids. Sick of chipfabs spewing pollutants? Put em on the moon. Atmospheric CO2 getting you down? Solar power satellites can fix that for you. May sound outlandish at the moment, but our current aviation industry would have sounded outlandish when the Wright brothers flew.

    If you want to mine asteroids, with humans onsite, you need Mars, which has good dirt and is the only place in the solar system besides Earth where you can grow food without artificial lighting. Much cheaper to get to the asteroids from Mars than from Earth, so the trade triangle works like this: high-tech goods from Earth to Mars, bulk goods such as food from Mars to asteroids, mineral resources from asteroids to Earth.

    Or, you can just bitch that we won't get these benefits within the next couple decades, and not even start, even though there's no other way we're going to solve these kinds of problems in that timeframe, either.

  56. What about the martians? by selenetic_age · · Score: 1

    (Wont't somebody please think of the Martians?)

  57. Re:Will is not the problem. Cost is. by Macgruder · · Score: 1

    Designing and building a man-rated lander for Mars (one that cannot fail) could easily run up a billion in design costs

    The development costs for all the landers was in the engineering of the computers and programs to do what was required in advance of any specific knowledge. In other words, we were trying to build software to do something when we had incomplete information about the operating environment, resorting to simulation and over-engineering.

    On a manned mission, we don't need that. We're sending along human beings, who are infintely more adaptable than automated probes.

    The Mars failures were not structural or engineering failures. They were programming errors. With a manned mission, we're sending along the programmers, or simply resorting to manual control and common sense.

    --
    I'm not crazy,I'm actively irresponsible.
  58. Clinton was a liar. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    President Clinton had an excessive sexual appetite, and lied about it to the American people. Clinton was nearly impeached for this.

    President Bush 2 put together a crack group of White House staffers to clarify the confusing and contradictory facts about Iraq's posession of WMD that the CIA had been providing them. After several sessions of "cutting this and emphasizing that", they realized the CIA was wrong, and an immediate invasion of Iraq was necessary to prevent a preemptive stike on the USA by Iraq. This had an entirely unforeseen consequence of giving the administation's highest level administrators (all of whom are Texas oil millionaires) access to huge amounts of foreign oil. Hundreds of US soldiers have died, as well as thousands of Iraqis, and the USA is looked upon with a high level of suspicion by the international community. This makes Bush a Hero of the Nation.

    Any questions?

    1. Re:Clinton was a liar. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Clinton was not *nearly* impeached. He *was* impeached.

  59. poor != unimaginitive by cbogart · · Score: 1

    >A good 80% of all humans live in poverty, with no hope of ever working their way out of it, and they probably don't care about what's on Mars.

    80% of the world may be poor, by some definition of the word "poor", but certainly nothing like that percentage are so stricken by hunger that they aren't capable of thinking philosophically about the universe and the future of humanity. I think it's a bit insulting to characterize the people of the world that way.

  60. 2026? Whew! I still have time by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    to finish my concrete bunker and fill it with AM radios and canned dogfood.

    And guns. We need lots of guns! :)

  61. You have some serious misconceptions going by Tau+Zero · · Score: 3, Insightful
    On top of that, you have not done your homework. On anything. Your post is so ignorant, you ought to do something really drastic to expiate your shame. I would suggest learning to study, and not posting on any subject that you have not studied.

    None of the components you listed in your message do us much good for a manned Mars exploration program. Take the Shuttle engines you list as one component. Only they aren't. They're needed in the (remaining) Shuttles. We'd have to build more of them to make a Mars mission possible before the end of the next decade - many, many more of them.

    Let's see, 1 launch window every 2 years, 2 vehicles per launch window, 4 engines per vehicle = 4 engines per year. Manufacture of High Pressure Fuel Turbopumps: "Production rate > 1 unit / month since first flight in July 2001 (STS-104)[1]. At the rate of 1 unit per month, you could have enough engines to fly a Shuttle every month and replace engines every 5 flights, send 4 vehicles to Mars every launch window instead of 2, and have about 3 brand-spanking new engines left over.

    It would take several launches just to get the gadgets to Mars to make liquid water and oxygen and hydrogen and everything else for the astronauts to use once they finally arrived.

    It would take one launch, carrying about 50 tons on a trans-Mars orbit.[2] The Shuttle orbiter weighs about 100 tons fully loaded; its engines are around 10 tons, leaving 90 tons for vehicle, payload and trans-Mars injection fuel. The required delta-V to get from LEO to TMI is roughly 4.3 km/sec. [3] Vacuum-specific impulse of an SSME is 452 seconds [4], or exhaust velocity of 4430 m/sec; the required TMI mass-ratio is 2.64 by the rocket equation. If you retained one SSME (modified to be restartable in flight) for the trans-Mars injection, you would need to start with ~53 tons * 2.64, or roughly 140 tons. This appears to be well within the capacity of a vehicle using 4 SSMEs and 3 SRBs to put into LEO.

    Then there are the cargo / habitat landers, which also cannot fail.

    Yes they can. You send them first, perhaps several of them, one launch window before you send people. If they don't land and work correctly, you hold the manned mission off for another launch window. If you send 3 and only 1 of them lands and works, you have one usable landing site; if 2 or 3 of them land and work, you have your choice of options. You can use the unused landers later, or for supply depots for long surveys.

    In-situ propellant production may have been demonstrated in the lab here on earth, but we don't know yet if it would even work on Mars. Right now we're having trouble getting simple robot rovers to function correctly, at $400 million a pop.

    You have some serious misconceptions about price tags here. The cost is almost entirely for research, development and engineering; manufacturing is a drop in the bucket. You could probably crank out rovers for a few million apiece now that we have the design.

    A small chemical plant is much, much simpler than a rover. The biggest issue might be filtering dust to keep it out of the machinery, and you would have a lot of trouble claiming that we don't have any applicable experience with filters.

    What you're proposing is that we drop a small chemical factory on Mars, along with an automated tractor and bulldozer to haul it icy rock for processing.

    No, that's your proposal. I'm proposing Zubrin's scheme of carrying LH2 to the site and processing it into methane and LOX via the reactions

    CO2 + 4 H2 -> CH4 + 2 H2O + heat

    H2O + energy -> 2H2 + O2

    Note that the methane-production reaction is e

    --
    Time is Nature's way of keeping everything from happening at once... the bitch.
    1. Re:You have some serious misconceptions going by sunspot42 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      >On top of that, you have not done your homework.
      >On anything. Your post is so ignorant, you ought to
      >do something really drastic to expiate your shame.
      >I would suggest learning to study, and not posting
      >on any subject that you have not studied.

      Insulting people is ALWAYS a good way to show how smart you are.

      >>None of the components you listed in your message do
      >>us much good for a manned Mars exploration program.
      >>Take the Shuttle engines you list as one component.
      >>Only they aren't. They're needed in the (remaining) Shuttles.
      >>We'd have to build more of them to make a Mars mission
      >>possible before the end of the next decade - many, many
      >>more of them.
      >
      >Let's see, 1 launch window every 2 years, 2 vehicles per launch
      >window, 4 engines per vehicle = 4 engines per year. Manufacture
      >of High Pressure Fuel Turbopumps: "Production rate > 1 unit /
      >month since first flight in July 2001 (STS-104)[1]. At the rate
      >of 1 unit per month, you could have enough engines to fly a Shuttle
      >every month and replace engines every 5 flights, send 4 vehicles to
      >Mars every launch window instead of 2, and have about 3 brand-
      >spanking new engines left over.

      That's nice. But that doesn't address my point. I didn't say it couldn't be done. I said it would take a lot of engines, unless you plan on somehow diverting the remaining Shuttles from their ISS missions to a Mars mission, or you plan to continue flying them long after they're scheduled to be decommissioned.

      Or unless you plan on using those Shuttle engines in some other launcher. Which is probably a good idea - the Shuttle engines are arguably the best part of the Shuttle program - but the R&D on a new launcher large enough to hoist those Mars payloads into orbit / off to Mars could eat up $10 billion or more. Much more if you want to build something that can haul those Shuttle engines back to earth so they can be recycled. Otherwise, you have to eat the cost of 4 Shuttle engines with every launch. How many flights will this adventure take?

      >>It would take several launches just to get the gadgets to Mars to
      >>make liquid water and oxygen and hydrogen and everything else
      >>for the astronauts to use once they finally arrived.
      >
      >It would take one launch, carrying about 50 tons on a trans-Mars
      >orbit.[2]

      Wait a minute. You're telling us that this Martian contraption to manufacture hydrogen and oxygen and liquid water and everything else the astronauts are gonna need once they get to Mars is only gonna weigh 50 tons? An Apollo spacecraft at departure from earth orbit only weighed about 45 tons, and most of that weight was fuel. The LEM and capsule were tiny and fairly lightweight in comparison. It took a giant Saturn V to haul Apollo into orbit. Now you're saying that a rocket fuel / oxygen factory / storage facility and a bulldozer for Mars are only going to weigh 50 tons. I don't buy it. The Viking probe weighed 4 tons, not including fuel, and it didn't bulldoze rock and ice to manufacture and store rocket fuel. The Zarya module on the ISS weighs around 20 tons I think, and it didn't have to carry the equipment and fuel to slow it down and land successfully on Mars.

      > The Shuttle orbiter weighs about 100 tons fully loaded;
      >its engines are around 10 tons, leaving 90 tons for vehicle, payload
      >and trans-Mars injection fuel.

      So are you saying we'd launch on the Shuttle, or on some as-yet-to-be-developed vehicle. Because if you're launching on the Shuttle, it can only haul around 30 tons of cargo into LEO, if memory serves. So now we're talking at least two flights just to get your Mars rocket fuel factory into orbit and on its way. And if you're launch on some as-yet-to-be-developed vehicle employing Shuttle-derived technology, add at least another $10 billion to the cost of t

    2. Re:You have some serious misconceptions going by Tau+Zero · · Score: 1

      Insulting people is ALWAYS a good way to show how smart you are.

      Stop insulting my intelligence with fallacious or ignorant objections and you won't have your nose rubbed in them. If you don't have complete confidence in your knowledge, qualify your statements appropriately.

      I said it would take a lot of engines... Or unless you plan on using those Shuttle engines in some other launcher.

      Let's see, I recall saying this (and you quoted me):

      1 launch window every 2 years, 2 vehicles per launch window, 4 engines per vehicle = 4 engines per year.

      A Shuttle orbiter has three SSME's, not four. It should have been obvious to you that I was not talking about launching Shuttle Orbiters to Mars, I was talking about putting SSME's under a variant Shuttle stack with no Orbiter at all.

      the R&D on a new launcher large enough to hoist those Mars payloads into orbit / off to Mars could eat up $10 billion or more.

      How about you provide some figures to support that $1e10 claim? Besides, that's only 2/3 of 1 year's NASA budget, hardly a big deal over an 8-10 year program.

      Otherwise, you have to eat the cost of 4 Shuttle engines with every launch. How many flights will this adventure take?

      1 launch window every 2 years, 2 vehicles per launch window.... That's 4 engines per year for as long as you run the exploration program with that vehicle. If you assume $500 million per launch, you are talking about half of what a Shuttle costs to launch and your net cost is a small fraction of Shuttle's because you are only launching at a rate of 2 vehicles every 2 years. The Mars program a la Mars Direct would be much cheaper than the Shuttle program.

      Wait a minute. You're telling us that this Martian contraption to manufacture hydrogen and oxygen and liquid water and everything else the astronauts are gonna need once they get to Mars is only gonna weigh 50 tons? An Apollo spacecraft at departure from earth orbit only weighed about 45 tons, and most of that weight was fuel.

      You just answered your own question, you just don't realize it yet. How much would Apollo have had to weigh if it could get rid of 94.5% of its fuel, and only carry some hydrogen? Oxygen and carbon are available in vast quantities from the Martian atmosphere. It may be possible to harvest some water or ice, but that is a chancy thing to base the first missions on; carrying the hydrogen assures the supply. Ergo, you ship the hydrogen from Earth and gather the carbon and oxygen when you get there.

      If you burn a stoichometric mixture of methane and oxygen, your mass-balance looks like this:

      CH4 + 2 O2 -> CO2 + 2 H2O

      This is 4 AMU of hydrogen, 12 AMU of carbon and 64 AMU of oxygen for a total of 80 AMU; the hydrogen is only 1/20 of the total. If you assume a slightly methane-rich mix instead, you might wind up with 18:1 [1]. If Apollo lofted 40 tons of fuel and 5 tons of actual hardware, and you could convert that to 5 tons of fuel and 40 tons of hardware, just what do you think you could have done instead? Now figure 21st century electronics and other engineering.

      Now you want to transport tons of liquid hydrogen to Mars and land it all safely. So scrap the bulldozer, but add on probably ten times as much weight in LH2.

      If I put 50 tons on a TMI trajectory, I'd probably put 45-48 tons on Mars. If I only need 5 tons of vehicle to get me home, my Mars-escape vehicle's mass-ratio is 6 (wild-assed guess) and I have an 18:1 multiplier, I only need 1.39 tons of hydrogen (25 tons fuel&oxygen/18). This is a rather small fraction of my total mission mass. I do not have numbers for the delta-V to go from Mars surface to Earth transfer orbit ready to hand, or I'd use them.

      That's why I don't think it should be

      --
      Time is Nature's way of keeping everything from happening at once... the bitch.
  62. Hmmmm by PhotoGuy · · Score: 1

    While I have found other references to Cameron's involvement in this, why do none of the documents mention his name at all? Am I being dense in missing the link here?

    --
    Love many, trust a few, do harm to none.
  63. Fuzzy Math in a Mission to Mars? by EvilBuu · · Score: 1

    On the Mars Surface Time Allocation chart, they have the available man-hours of labor per day listed as 8 X 24 = 200. Are they allocating 8 hours that don't exist? Is the martian day even close to 24 hours long?

    --

    Green-voting, republican-registered, socialist-libertarian.
    1. Re:Fuzzy Math in a Mission to Mars? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I believe its just over 25

  64. Why a film director as opposed to... by digital+photo · · Score: 1

    Okay, this I don't get. James Cameron is a film director. This is basically the same thing as asking an artist to concieve a ship design. This, to me, is looking at the wrong solution to the problem.

    The problem is not one of aesthetics or "believability" or even film-making. It is one of keeping people alive and for providing a living environment. What stresses a particular structure will need to tolerate, what safety limits, what shape this kind of structure will take on... those are engineering issues, not film-making issues.

    Film making and directing is about control of the vision of the film. Part of this ability is to pick the right cast member for the right role. Choosing a film director for the role of ship designer is, in my opinion, a poor choice. It will lead to the preference of form over function and result in horrendous "mishaps" and basically a waste of human life when the idea fails because the necessary precautions were not taken.

    Originally, I had thought, "Why not Steve Jobs?" He has designed well interfacing hardware that works and looks good. But with the iPod and some of the design choices made, I fear the same problem exists: preference of form over function.

    I'm as eager to get out into space and colonize and build the first fast food joint in orbit as the next space cadet. But like any other rational human being, I want to do it safely and not risk my life doing so.

    I don't care if the ship looks like crap. I want a ship that will WORK. Ie, safely carry people+cargo to and from a destination in space.

    What I would want is an engineer with artistic vision to concieve ship designs based on practical and workable systems as opposed to building a ship with a certain "look" based on assumptions of how the system should work.

    We lost Columbia, Challenger, and pre apollo crews to poor decisions which over-rided sane safety concerns. Who bolts the escape hatch from the outside so you can't get out from the inside!? Who in their right mind would push for a flight window when there are concerns about the ships systems with abnormal icing present? We're talking about human lives here! We aren't living in the stone age. A piece of protective shielding(on an ablative shielding system, ALL pieces of the shielding are critical), was knocked off. Deemed "safe".

    We have super computers to run simulations on "what-ifs". Why bother having them if we use them to only simulate and predict weather and bomb effects and not on whether a ship can survive re-entry with x-piece of it's system damaged?

    I fear the recent "successes" at NASA/JPL is once again starting to inflate the egos which will lead to loss of lives.

    The situation of where timelines, politics, cost-effectiveness, and bottom-lines will take priority over human lives.

    If such is the case, then why bother sending humans out there at all if we are not intending to safeguard them from start to finish!?

    1. Re:Why a film director as opposed to... by CaptainAvatar · · Score: 1

      You've completely missed the point. He's not designing spacecraft, he is taking NASA's current plan for a manned Mars mission (ie Mars Semi-Direct) and trying to visualise it - either because he's thinking about filming a Mars movie or just for the heck of it. NASA didn't ask him to do this, nor will anybody be sending people to Mars in something Cameron came up with. So take a deep breath and relax ...

      --
      The real Captain Avatar is a fictional character, so I suppose he doesn't mind if I impersonate him.
  65. Quarantining the sample by Uncle+Barnard's+Star · · Score: 1
    It would even be cooler if the sample would be returned to the ISS rather than Earth proper. You hit two birds with one stone. You put to use the money pit that's the Internationaly Space Station, and you limit the possibility of a microspic Mars attack. If there's an alien viral outbreak, the fatalities would be limited to the two to seven crew members of the ISS. This assumes that the crew will be kept up there for months after the receipt of the alien cargo

  66. Red Mars by SuperKendall · · Score: 1

    Actually that was his other book, "The Case For Mars" (which I have not yet read). "Mars On Earth" is much less political and more straightforward in that regard...

    What I found impressive is the very practical nature of the research they are doing on these earth stations. They really are getting a lot of practocal experience and I found myself agreeing with all of the points at the end of the book summarizing what works and what does not with crews going to mars.

    To tie back into my subject, probably a lot of his political ideas were at least heavily influences by Kim Stanley Robinon's "Red Mars" series, which are great books (I think) and follow the same line of thought (Mars breaking free of Earth). Myself, I try to stay out of the political side and focus on examining the technical issues. Not that I am thinking there won't be some weird politics onvolved at some point if a private effort really does get together the resources to send a manned mission to Mars (I am not sure yet if that will happen before or after the government gets around to it).

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    1. Re:Red Mars by loxosceles · · Score: 1

      There's another book by Zubrin (beside The Case For Mars) called Entering Space, which deals with Mars, the rest of the solar system, and possible approaches for interstellar travel. Highly recommended for those who haven't thought about the issues involved; at least browse through them the next time you're at a bookstore or library.

  67. You know what's funny? by StarKruzr · · Score: 1

    (And remarkably frightening?)

    The people I tell Larry Niven's explanation of why we need a space program to (not in those words, but the same general idea) who aren't enthusiastic about space say more or less the same thing in response.

    Their counter-argument goes something along the lines of, "well, why are we so great that we think we should be preserved? If we destroy ourselves or if an asteroid comes along and takes us out, why should we be so arrogant to think we should try and stop that?"

    I get a LOT of responses like this.

    Does it frighten the shit out of anyone else that there seems to be so many people who think this way?

    --

    +++ATH0
    1. Re:You know what's funny? by CaptainAvatar · · Score: 1

      Years ago I had an argument along somewhat similar lines with an educated man (well, half-educated, a physics PhD student as I was) and it pissed me off no end that he wouldn't concede that it was worth a lousy few million dollars a year to fund an asteroid search to properly assess the threat ... he kept saying things like "there are more important things to spend the money on" and "if we get wiped out by an asteroid, so what? if it happens, it happens ..." Just thinking back to this makes me want to track him down and beat some sense into him!

      --
      The real Captain Avatar is a fictional character, so I suppose he doesn't mind if I impersonate him.