Outsourcing As A Source Of U.S. Jobs

An anonymous reader writes "The Economic Times, India's leading financial newspaper, reports that Diana Farrell, Director, McKinsey Global Institute during her speech at Nasscom 2004 said that Bureau of Labour Statistics is predicting a job gain of 22m in the US by 2010, against a job loss of 2m, due to offshoring. You can read the full article here."

Comments

Re:Some more statistics on the subject

[Eskarel]

Unemployment statistics are trash. They don't include recent college grads or those who have been unemployed for a prolonged period of time because no one bothers to register unless they are eligable for unemployment benefits. After a while people are no longer eligable and so they stop registering as unemployed, the statistics assume they are employed which isn't necessarily the case.

But what *kind* of jobs?

[JakiChan]

My worry is that the economists say "Oh don't worry, we'll replace those jobs." But not with anything I've remotely studied to do. A job at my current level may not be available or even practical. Most places won't let you get a second bachelors degree. And somehow I don't think a university will accept me for a chemistry masters program when I have a degree in Computer Science. Sometimes I get the feeling that to these economists going from being a skilled worker to a Deliverator is acceptable as long as I'm employed.

I used to think the reality portrayed in Snow Crash was just current trends taken to some unreal extreme. Now as I watch the destruction of the middle class I'm not so sure.

I'd like to believe, but

[NixLuver]

I just don't see this as a big motivator to the US economy. The 'savings' of outsourcing are mostly in the form of taxes not paid to the government (by the time the infrastructure - ie, Stateside project manager, Stateside liason, overseas liason, overseas management, and programmers, the actual salary savings is fairly small). Also, the profits of this reduced cost simply are not going to be realized in reduced cost of the product, but in terms of lining the pockets of the major stockholders (I hope I'm wrong, but history would suggest differently).

The largest percentage of the outsourced jobs are high-paying; perhaps we'll eliminate a single 80k job and replace it with 4 20k jobs? Or does somebody think that American business is going to hire local techies to architect products and the humble outsource labor forces will selflessly implement the design?

I have nothing against India or the programmers that are taking advantage of the avarice of American companies in order to better themselves. I would do the same thing in their shoes.

I do, however, blame an American business culture where todays stock prices have become more important than the ultimate survivability or long-term health of the company. After all, on a long enough timeline, everyone's surviveability is zero, eh?

I smell bull

[shaldannon]

Diana Farrell, director, McKinsey Global Institute, said, "People in the US are looking at it as a job issue. They are not economists and therefore, they don't necessarily see the whole picture. What's going to happen is that offshoring is actually going to benefit US businesses even more than India." She said it was a profoundly new way of doing things and would change the structure of organisations. Offshore was about global wealth creation and integrating economies, she explained, adding that it would create more high-value jobs in the US than people could imagine today.

Based on the research that the McKinsey institute had carried out, Ms Farrell said conservatively, for every dollar invested in the offshore space, $0.58 was directly saved. This could be either redistributed to investors or customers. But she added that there were indirect benefits to the US, in terms of the import of US goods and services into India by Indian service providers, and so there was some transfer of profit back to the parent in the US. She pointed out that the Bureau of Labour Statistics was predicting a job gain of 22m in the US by '10, against a job loss of 2m due to offshoring.

I'd like to know what she's smoking. I see a lot of this as someone with a comfortable job spouting off:

1. Job loss in the last few years has continued unabated in the tech sector. By all reports, the new jobs created have been nontechnical, particularly in construction.
2. This doesn't account for the fact that many people have dropped out of the labor market altogether (going back to school, early retirement, panhandling).
3. Economists have a pathetic record for prediction. Right now we're in what's been termed a "jobless recovery." If that's a recovery (I remain unconvinced) then just where does Ms. Farrell see those 22 million jobs coming from in the next 6 years, and just when does she think they'll appear?
4. Additionally, Ms. Farrell claims that cost savings from shipping jobs overseas will be passed on to the consumer. Ignoring the tendency of corporations to pass cost savings on to executive compensation rather than to stockholders or even (gasp!) consumers, just how would consumer savings help the average unemployed Joe on the street get a new productive job?
5. On top of this, consider the setting for the comments. Ms. Farrell is telling a group of people in India not to feel bad about taking our jobs because eventually we'll turn out better than we started out. This is yet more bull in an article already reeking of manure. All it is designed to do is assuage someone's conscience.

It's one thing to say something substantive on the subject, but all that's been presented is trite expressions of hope that things will get better. I'm sure I'm not alone in hoping that they do get better, but until something meaningful is said, it's only so much bull.

I am not sure I buy it, but I have

[PotatoHead]

been thinking about this lately. (I am still employed, but my company is having a pretty rough time right now.)

We are going to see more jobs. If Bush gets his way, most of them are going to be in competition with 'undocumented' (Ahem..), I mean ILLEGAL workers. So, we all know those are not going to pay well. Lots of people are going to be devalued for sure.

Jobs that involve people skills are going to become more important. Somebody needs to manage the teams, make deals, and other things. I have been seeing another trend along these lines as well.

Working professionals are forming groups to cut overall costs. So far I see this happening with law, accounting, taxes and other similar traditional services, but maybe technically oriented groups have a chance doing this as well.

Having your own in-house technical people may be too expensive, but buying some quality time locally, sans language and distance issues might be worth a small price premium. Personally, I hope this is an area that Open Source can begin to play a little harder.

I can't help but wonder what effect the growing license fees companies, like Microsoft, ask each year have on the job market. There are a lot of dollars going to one place that used to go elsewhere.

With Open Source working as it should and some greater degree of acceptance, perhaps some of this money will be distributed more evenly. Companies could choose to keep minimal staff and pay high license fees for one size fits all software, or...

They can choose to employ some more staff and combine that with services from a number of competing firms to solve their problems. The greater number of potential solutions might yield competetive advantages as well depending on who is involved.

If this sort of thing begins to really happen, polishing up those people skills might be the way to go. Your technical background will be valuable for advising execs on critical decisions and evaluating potential partners.

I have been getting some experience doing this on the side for a little while now. Once the execs learn there is a cheaper way, they need people to facillitate getting it done for them. Being able to work hands on, in a pinch, helps as well. I sort of ended up doing this for a couple of people I met when I began networking a couple years ago. (fear drives a geek to do strange things, I know!)

Thinking along these lines seems better than a long job search in any case. So, here it is, for what it is worth.

Anyone doing anything similar? Have any luck? Suggestions? I just might need them soon!

Re:in the long term

[Savage-Rabbit]

The phenomenally poor in India are seeing a big jump in their standard of living, while the fat American is simply seeing a slow down in their accumulation of wealth.

It is not the phenominally poor in India who are benefitting from the export of high tech jobs it is India's upper and middle classes. India has a cast system and the people who are benefitting from this would rather drown than touch a rope that has previously been handled by one of Inda's phenominally poor low cast "Untouchables", unless of course the rope was ritually purified first.
It seems to me this has alot less to do with "fat Americans" and more to do with "short sighted greedy little American corporate executives" who are pissing away a highly trained workforce for short term gains and making a present of high technology to India which is only too happy to accept it since the technological exchange will eventually allow her to dispense with the Americans and compete with them.

Re:22 million jobs

[arc.light]

not $22 million in jobs.

Just to stay even with the number of new workers entering the workforce, the US needs to add 300,000 jobs per month. Multiply 300,000 by 12 months by 6 years (the difference between now and 2010) and you get 21.6 million, a number suspiciously close to the 22 million cited in the article. I'm guessing that the job creation number is based on horseshit.

Re:Tired of this offshoring whine on /.

[tarunthegreat]

Well I'm a software programmer in India working for a company that outsources. Most people working over here are pretty similar to you guys (which is the point that Wired was trying to make)...all college educated people happy to get a 'stable' job which pays really well and allows us all to be able to pay a decent rent and buy cars and stuff. We do feel awful about the fact that ppl in USA are going to lose jobs...but the fact is it's not our fault American companies are coming here to scout for work. We need jobs, and they are offering, so naturally we're gonna take them. And they are paying us MORE than what we would be making otherwise. It is cheaper than America, but HIGH and COMFORTABLE by Indian standards. That being said... most of the work we get here is "Grunt Work". I'm responsible for 'maintenance' i.e. fixing bugs between release 4.1 and 4.1.1. That kind of stuff. It's a rare day we get to sit down and design an operating system, say, or a piece of software which actually can do something worthwhile. Most of us here feel that those kinds of fun things are given to the Americans to do in America, and to only call us if things break(or if they get bored with their product)....Many of us actually want to go to America and live there...failing that, having America come to us was the next best option...and many people like these jobs because it gives them an opportunity to go aborad (necessary for technology transfer)...
That is the Software perspective... The call-centre perspective is totally different. Call-centre people have to work all kinds of awful hours (8 pm to 6am) they have no social life and all kinds of health problems. On top of that, they have to deal with unruly, irate customers, among other things. Not a SINGLE person working in a call-centre here loves his/her job. They are just doing it for the Money. To make ends meet. Most people working in call-centres are people with reasonable college degrees but no scope of getting employment elsewhere. Everyone who works in a call-centre knows s/he will quit in a year and do something else with their life - the churn rate is VERY HIGH. Anyway - THAT is the Indian Perspective and the ground reality. Guys there's nothing constructive we can say to you - We are truly sorry that your jobs are being taken, but we didn't do the stealing - your CEOs did. I've been fired, I know what that's like.
And the truth is, many of us feel it is a good thing because it is putting more money in our pockets, and giving us a better life...but unlike you guys, we have no social security benefits if we lose our jobs.. I don't expect any pleasant replies to this, just giving a point of view from the land of Kama Sutra, Cow-Worshippers, Towel Heads, Sand-Niggers, Curry Munchers....