Independent Game Studios Talk Tactics
Thanks to GameSpot for its article discussing the challenges facing independent videogame studios. The piece explains: "The game industry is moving toward greater and greater consolidation... Increasingly, an independent studio capable of turning a profit from the advances-against-royalties formula is the exception rather than the rule." It goes on to talk to Bill Roper (formerly Blizzard, now at Flagship), Feargus Urquhart (formerly Black Isle, now at Obsidian) and others, with Urquhart claiming independent developers are at no special disadvantage in current times: "I sort of look at it like babies and houses, there probably never is the perfect time to have a baby or buy a house. You just have to decide to do it and then do it."
I'd think that the cost should actually fall, given the increased availability of necessary software..
Even though development tools and middleware are becoming increasingly available, the thing that is really ballooning is the cost of developing content. As technologies improve, there are order-of-magnitude jumps in level of detail that needs to be built into the levels, the models, the textures, the animations, the game logic, etc. Not only does content need to be of higher quiality, but much more of it needs to be produced. Thus you need A) more highly skilled and talented developers to create the higher quiality content and B) more of them.
They also claimed that the market for MMOGs basically was saturated, that 5 years ago there were 50 MMOGs around, and there still are. True, they are different ones and they do change, but there does not seem to be a market for more than 50.
I personally believe that new independents should go into mobile games: that market is still pretty much open, although it is closing fast.