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Yellowstone Super-Eruption Threat Debunked
GennyCream writes "The Internet has been all a-buzz with tin-foil-hat geeks have been in a tizzy over supposed government coverups of a soon-to-come super eruption in Yellowstone (especially see The Shadow Confederacy, but also Rense.com, or BlackVault for entertaining examples). I found an article on ATSNN.com (the Above Top Secret News Network) that cut the paranoia with the proverbial knife and went straight to the source. Their interview with USGS Yellowstone scientists covers all the angles and should inspire the mad-hatters to find something else to fear (for now)."
Well, my father in law follows the geology of the Yellowstone basin fairly closely because of his job as a park Ranger up in Grand Teton (his dream retirement job). In all the conversations I have had with him, he has said nothing of this. To add to that, he lives just outside Jackson Wyoming (Cheny's undisclosed location interestingly enough or at least I've seen him around the Jackson area a number of times) and one would think he would be out of there had there been any dramatic increases in geologic activity indicative of an eruption or large scale animal deaths as alleged in these rumors.
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There is certainly a chance of a super volcano going up from Yellowstone, and the timescale where that is likely is longer than all of human history. There's an interesting book called Yellowstone Farwell by Wyoming geologist Wanyne Sutherland and his wife Judy (selling well in Wyoming anyway...see at http://www.yelllowstonefarewll.com). I live in Wyoming and worry about terrorism at a greater level than volcanoes (and I recall a Time magazine essay saying that all Americans could do to alleviate their worry over terrorism was to move to Wyoming!).
Professor of Astronomy, Author of Spider Star & Star Dragon (Tor)
"The Internet has been all a-buzz with tin-foil-hat geeks have been in a tizzy over supposed government coverups of a soon-to-come super eruption in Yellowstone (especially see The Shadow Confederacy, but also Rense.com, or BlackVault for entertaining examples)."
You seem to have forgotten this gem.
I got your tin foil hat right here!
Sigs are for losers
There is a lots of information concerning the actual research being conducted.
The threat of a massive eruption is exaggerated in the articles, without a doubt. There is, however, a lot of interesting scientific data presented.
The interview points out that since the last caldera-forming eruption, which was 640,000 years ago, there have been 30 smaller eruptions. That's an average of one eruption per 21,000 years. According to the USGS, the last eruption at Yellowstone was 70,000 years ago. It's not unreasonable to suggest that another eruption could occur in the near future.
As for the threat of a massive caldera-forming eruption. the same USGS site reports that they tend to have occurred every 600,000 to 800,000 years over the past 2.1 million years. Since the last such eruption was 640,000 years, it's not unreasonable to suggest that such an eruption could occur within the next 200,000 years if the pattern continues. The threat of such an eruption is overplayed in some of the articles cited in the story, but is not completely unreasonable.
Note, also, that there aren't any records of what happened the last time Yellowstone had a massive eruption. Such an eruption has not been observed.
Also, the government does have a tendency to downplay threats while they are still being investigated.
I tend to think the questions are reasonable but exaggerated. But if the government downplays stuff, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. I just don't think people ought to be ridiculed when it's easy enough just to debunk them with the facts if they really are wrong.
Even when a volcano erupts next in Yellowstone it is unlikely to be of a massive scale like the rare caldera forming events of the past. Yellowstone is an exceptional geologic feature, and the spectacular geysers, hot springs, mud pots, etc... are all due to the presence of molten rock at unusually shallow levels beneath the park. If, however, you look at the size and frequency of past eruptions, then combine that with present observations, it's clear that the risk of another catastrophic caldera forming event in our lifetimes is very low.
Smaller eruptions are, however, much more common. There are various sorts of volcanic events that might qualify as "smaller eruptions," and it really wouldn't surprise me to see one in my lifetime.
Steam explosions seem like the most likely candidate for the next eruption. Small ones occur every few years. These can blast steam and scorching hot rock high in to the air, but don't result in the actual eruption of lava -- they occur far above any molten rock. These events occur when groundwater, heated from below, flashes catastrophically to steam. Doing so entails the liquid water rapidly increasing in volume, and in order to make room for itself, rock (as well as trees, people, bison, and anything that might get in the way) may be excavated from the vicinity of the explosion. There's a bulge underneath Yellowstone lake that some people speculate is caused by the accumulation of hydrothermal gases and that may possibly represent the future site of a steam explosion (although, again, that's just speculation at this point), and part of Norris Geyser Basin has been temporarily closed because of concern that it could be the site of a future steam explosion -- the ground there recently heated up to around 200 degrees F. Generally, however, steam explosions are hard to predict, and they're also usually fairly localized and fleeting events that present relatively little hazard.
There are also several dozen non-caldera forming volcanoes in the caldera and immediate vicinity. Most of these erupted shortly before or after the last giant eruption that occurred (roughly) 640,000 years ago. Keep in mind, however, that shortly is relative: most were spaced several thousand years apart. The last one erupted about 70,000 years ago.
The nice thing about volcanic eruptions is that they usually give some indication that they're coming before any eruption actually occurs. Warning signs can include: ground inflation over wide areas which can be detected by tiltmeters, GPS, and satellite inferometry; changes in groundwater chemistry; earthquake swarms that indicate magma moving a depth; volcanic tremors; and changes in volcanic gas discharge from the ground (this effect can be observed at Long Valley Caldera in California where CO2 escaping from magma has killed many trees, and is present in high enough concentration to be dangerous for humans in some situations). Yellowstone is, furthermore, very well monitored and to date there is no increase in bckground activity to indicate any volcanic eruption is imminent.
Human history has never recorded a giant caldera forming eruption like those that have occurred at Yellowstone and Long Valley Caldera, we know they are very infrequent events, and also know that much smaller events are much, much, more common. The largest eruptions should also give many of the same kinds of warning signs that other eruptions give, and probably many more. Again, it's also worth noting that past such eruptions at Yellowstone were prefaced for thousands of years by smaller eruptions.
I used to live in Wyoming, and I still have some relatives there. Back when I was in middle school there, we learned all about the Yellowstone Cauldera; Wyoming school kids are lucky in that the state is so geologically diverse and interesting.
Anyhow, I'm just establishing that I have some tiny bit of credibility, despite the fact that I admit I'm not a fully-trained or professional geologist.
I think, aside from the tinfoil-hat bent, the issue here boils down to two questions: Is Yellowstone a danger? And, Is the danger immediate?
To the first, the answer is a powerful yes. Were Yellowstone to blow like it has before, there's a pretty good chance most of the human population would be wiped out.
To the second question, the answer is: probably not. Overall, the geothermal activity in Yellowstone has been cooling down in the last fifty years. There is an increase in geothermal activity North of Yellowstone, but I've been informed that it's new and a relatively small danger. The theory is, in regards to that, that the hot spot which has caused all the fun activity in Yellowstone is simply moving northward.
As for the rest... well, you can draw your own conclusions.
(Apologies for any errors or typos; I'm literally half asleep as I type this.)
~UP
Eat the Path.
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