Why iPod Can't Save Apple

MadMirko writes "MacNN quotes an article from Money Magazine titled Why iPod can't save Apple, which says 'the buzz on the digital music player and "swank" storefronts are masking an ebbing bottom line, noting reduced CPU sales (resulting a shrinking marketshare), decreased profits (in part due to the lower-margin iPod and little-to-no profit at the iTunes Music Store), failure of the iPod to drive CPU sales, failure of the retail stores to increase marketshare, hidden retail store costs, no operational income, and little value in the stock.'"

Comments

Sheesh. "The Sky Is Falling"

[grub]

How many tech companies (which were media darlings) imploded during the Dot-Bomb? Apple wasn't among them and they've been "Dying Since 1976". Hell, even one of the latest tech poster-children ( Segway) is sucking rocks. Apple has a core (no pun intended) market and a loyal customer base.

These analysts have an intangible they can't convert to numbers on the spreadsheet: customer loyalty. No user I've ever met has the same passion for Dell, Compaq or Microsoft.

disclaimer: I'm an Apple fanboy; bought a ][+ in 1981 (which still works!) and a variety of Macs along the way.

Earnings

[BWJones]

Interesting because others have estimated that the iPod will add another 15 cents a share to Apple's earning this year which rises to 25 cents a share by 2006.

This is only focusing on the iPod and ignoring all other products in Apple's inventory announced and unannounced which are having large influences in their respective markets.

Facts

[Lizard_King]

"Out of the hundreds of people who were waiting outside Apple's SoHo store in the cold to buy an iPod, I could find only one whose positive experience with the music player led him to buy an Apple computer."

This is a strange statement. If the hundreds of people were waiting to buy an iPod, how would they have already had the iPod experience that would push them to purchase an Apple computer? Chicken before the egg here? As with most of the 'Apple is dying' articles we've seen over the last 15 years, this one mixes numbers without context and some strange subjective observations.

Oh yeah, BSD is dying too. And Bluetooth... =)

Oh, come on

[Zog The Undeniable]

Apple has one of the strongest brands in the world. They have fiercely loyal customers (no, I'm not one of them). They have a reasonable licensing policy for their OS (try and get a family multi-computer discount for XP Home Edition, ha ha). Anything they make with an "i" in the name gets snapped up by said loyal customers. If obscure Taiwanese component manufacturers with virtually no brand image can make money, Apple should be coining it in. Jobs just needs another big idea like the iMac and the iPod and everyone will forget about Apple's demise for a few years.

Little value in stock?

[JBMcB]

Let's see, there's all Apple's IP, QuickTime technologies in MPEG4, a ton of software (OSX, Logic, Final Cut, Shake, i-Software) a fantastic industrial design department, manufacturing facilities, tight ties to Pixar (one of the most successful movie studios) a mature and integrated hardware/software design team, a chain of retail stores (successful or not, it's capital investment) and, currently, the most popular online music store (though not making profit, it's bringing in eyeballs) as well as the brand name Apple, probably as well known as Microsoft.

I'd say there's quite a bit of value in APPL.

Does Apple really need to be saved?

[imperator_mundi]

Apple is posting profits => Apple doesn't need to be saved.

Market share does matter only if you're from Redmond and/or your plotting to rule the world, "normal" corporation are just after money, and money is just what Apple is making.

Could the Walkman have Saved Sony?

[H8X55]

Yeah - i think this is much ado about nothing. I wouldn't write Apple off at the moment. Using stats w/ declining computer sales is a little suspect. Couldn't we say the same about Dell, HP/Compaq, Gateway, and IBM? The iPod, if nothing else is advertisement for Apple Technology. The G5 running Panther OS seems like a very strong combination of hardware/software. And i might wager than PC owning consumers buying iPods just might consider a Mac the next time around the block.

I wonder if the iPod could actually save Apple. It's not that I think Apple needs saving, but more so, question whether or not a $300 mp3 player could revitalize a company. Did Sony need saving when they released their Walkman? Did Nintendo need the Gameboy the rescue them form extinction? Nope. These companies used these products to become even more powerful than they already were.

Re:Yes, yes, yes, Apple's dying, blah blah blah

[Orkin]

All you have done is denied the premise of The I Shing's statement; you have in no way refuted it. Semantic arguments are just plain silly...

When someone refers to the immediacy of something by saying "Apple is about to die," they are OBVIOUSLY referring to a commonly accepted understanding of the relative immediacy of the impending collapse. To compare this to the collapse of England or the Sun going nova is just avoiding logical discussion of the topic altogether.

What Part of the Market?

[Genady]

The question that market analysts don't seem to be asking is what segments of the market is Apple growing in?

I've seen Apple making headways into the SysAdmin space. Not as servers (though XRaid perhaps will) but as personal workstations. Just this week two die hard Sun and VMS people have decided that their next workstations should be Macs. Replacing Sun Stations.

*This* is the important bit that is getting glossed over. Apple is making inroads with the Technoarti in companies. UNIX Sysadmins at the top of the totem pole have been crying for a UNIX laptop for years and now Apple is giving it to them. One Java developer recently quoted in JDJ remarked: "I use a Mac, it's like Linux with class and QA." (or something close to)

Macs are quickly becoming the status symbols of the technical shamans in the backroom. It's not hard to imagine that from there the jump to the CIO and the board room is not far off.

This is what looking at gross marketshare misses. Apple is front-loading the desire for Macs in IT. If they can couple it at the right time (once they've penetrated into the SysAdmin/CIO segment) with inexpensive corporate-type desktops... the world could change quickly.

If Apple can appeal on the resilience to worms/viruses and bring TCO value to corporations the future is bright.

Re:Yes, yes, yes, Apple's dying, blah blah blah

[ObiWanKenblowme]

Loosing market share and shrinking margins is usually a pretty sure sign a company is in decline.

Losing market share is actually not a pretty sure sign a company is in decline. Market share is only a ratio of the number of your products sold to the total products sold in a market. You can sell 10 widgets one year and 100 the next and still lose market share if UltraCompuMegaCorp's widget sales go from 20 to 2000 in the same amount of time.

Whether a company makes a profit, however, is a pretty good indicator, and it's something Apple has been able to do for the last several years. I'll believe Apple is dying when I see a big "going out of business sale" graphic on apple.com.

Yet another fact-distorting article

[bluephone]

I'm not even an Apple fan, and I think this article is nuts.

• "Even when you factor in Apple's $13 a share in cash and almost no debt, the company's stock, at a recent $23, trades at 20 times estimated 2004 earnings. Dell's shares, on the other hand, go for 26 times projected 2004 earnings -- but its business is three times as profitable as Apple's."

First they state that the shares are $13 per, then comment thta when it was $23 shares it was trading at a high P/E ratio, as though it's bad, but then shows how Dell has a higher ratio. And to boot, he compares earning on a fiscal year that's not even closed yet. And on top of it, Dell isn't debt free. In fact, FEW companies are debt free, but apple is. that alone makes it a great stock buy.

• "Tom Santos, one of the plaintiffs, estimates that Apple's stores would have lost as much as $80 million in 2003 had they been paying the same prices for inventory as the resellers paid."

Ok sir, tell you what, we'll have Apple charge you HIGHER prices so you don't have to complain about not going out of business.

• "And Apple's earnings would have been worse had it not been for $4.8 billion the company has in cash and short-term securities. In fact, the cash hoard made more money last year than Apple's operations -- which lost $1 million while the computer maker booked a $69 million gain on interest income."

Which is far more than any Microsoft division made last year, excluding Office and Operating Systems.

• "Out of the hundreds of people who were waiting outside Apple's SoHo store in the cold to buy an iPod, I could find only one whose positive experience with the music player led him to buy an Apple computer."

Ok, so they polled people for their experiences of devices they haven't bought yet. That's a great poll. I'd like to see a poll of people who bought Sony CD or MP3 players, to ask them if it made them buy a Sony Vaio. Or if HP's new iPod clone will make them buy an HP. That's a bogus comparison.

• "While Apple's sales of $6.2 billion last fiscal year were nearly unchanged from 1999, profits plummeted 90 percent to $69 million, from $601 million four years ago...Jobs' mass-appeal strategy has crimped the company's historically high profit margins. Apple's net profit margin is just 1 percent. That's down from 10 percent four years ago."

The margins for PC makers has been razor thin for years, it just finally caught up with Apple. I got out of selling boxes years ago due to shrinking margins. The fact that you can get multi-GHz PCs for $500 while a 1Ghz apple is more than grand doesn't help either. So let's not blame Jobs for the shrinking margins, let's blame market factors. As for shrinking profits, that's due to hardware that's overpriced.

• "Apple sold just over 3 million computers in its last fiscal year, which ended in September -- 900,000 less than it sold in fiscal 1996, the year before Jobs returned...Meanwhile, Apple's share of the worldwide personal-computer market has shrunk to 2 percent from 3.2 percent five years ago."

Ok, let's not compare this last year's performance to the year before, or any other year Jobs wa there, let's comapre it to before he arrived. Well, fine then, let's compare the other years since 1996 when Steve managed to maneuver Apple into selling far more PCs than in 1996. Let's compare how this year's sales are disappointing to last year's, to be fair. And let's factor in the lack of new product development in that part of the company's line up. They've been focusing on the consumer device market, like with the iPod mini (a smash seller). Gateway has been pushing plasma TVs and digital cameras FAR harder than PCs. Companies can only do so much at a time. Even Microsoft, arguably the world's biggest software company, can only manage an OS upgrade every 3-4 years now, and their project dates always slip every further.

I'm not Apple fanboy. I can't stand the Mac OS UI, I don't like the hand holding, I don't like the over priced hardware, I don't like the platform lock in, etc. But, let's at LEAST be fair about an examination of the company.