Slashdot Mirror

← Back to Stories (view on slashdot.org)

Ray Lewis To Break Madden Game Cover Curse?

Posted by simoniker on from the with-his-shoulderpads dept.

An anonymous reader writes "CNN/Money, in a column looking at the oft-discussed Madden cover curse, discloses that Ray Lewis of the Baltimore Raven will be on the cover of Electronic Arts' Madden NFL 2005 videogame, due out in August. For the past four years, the athlete on the cover of that game has had an injury plagued or shortened season, dating back to 2001, when Tennessee Titan Eddie George got knocked all around the field, including a particularly brutal hit by... Ray Lewis."

6 of 43 comments (clear)

  1. maybe they all get hurt by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Maybe it's not that much for the curse as for the fact that there is a good probability that ANY player will get hurt within the year.

  2. Just so you all know... by Ieshan · · Score: 4, Insightful

    This is a statistical "phenomenon" called "Regression to the Mean". It goes like this.

    The player on the Cover of the Madden Game (or, as it's more widely known, the SI Cover) had a phenomenal last season - a standout year. Such a good season that he will help sell the product and foster media attention.

    The Average player in the NFL did not have such a good season - in fact, they had an Average season. Next season, it is far more likely that the player on the cover of the Madden game will have a season more like the Average season than he will a Standout Season. That's the way a normal distribution works.

    Any other explanation is just mumbo-jumbo. It's regression to the mean. I'm not sure why basic statistics seems so difficult to so many people, especially psycho sports fans: sports statisticians.

    1. Re:Just so you all know... by ComputerSlicer23 · · Score: 3, Insightful
      Don't forget the other important explaination. The plural of anecdote isn't data. It's just like all my friends whom are convinced they are ahead after years of gambling. While it might be slightly true for one of them, even that is highly unlikely unless one of them cheats the house.

      People look for those people to have bad years. As a matter of fact, Randy Moss was in there somewhere, and he didn't have such a bad year when he was on the cover (it wasn't as spectacular as his rookie season, but as a receiver it was still a very good statistical year by nearly any measure). Also the SI Cover curse is completely separate from the "Madden Curse".

      The SI Cover curse goes back several decades I believe, and is more a matter of being anecdotal. As I recall Lance Armstrong's been on the cover several times during his Tour de France runs, and keeps winning somehow. Normally, it is associated with college football.

      People never remember the ones who don't match the pattern. Just like no one remembers all the times they lost $50 at the casino, they can just tell you about the one time left $1,200 up.

      Kirby

  3. amazing by Terminal+Saint · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Wow! ALL the way back to 2001, huh? that sure is long enough to establish a pattern...

    --
    It's sad when choosing an installation directory on your own qualifies you as an "advanced user."
  4. Re:There's more to it by Ieshan · · Score: 1, Insightful

    //sigh.

    From the article.

    For those keeping score at home, this will be the 15th Madden game - so the curse has stuck on roughly 29 percent of the games.

    Notice how the article carefully describes the last four seasons. Notice how you've only produced two of fifteen possible examples. TWENTY NINE PERCENT! For those keeping track, for 71% of cover-guys, the "hex" has no effect!

    Not only that, but half of the examples provided by any information on the source find something, *anything* wrong. The team suffers. The player suffers. Something terrible happens in the organization. The bottom line is, I bet we could find similar cases for any random occurance.

    How about this. If you want, we'll correlate my slashdot posts with bad weather. I get to use the entire globe, I'll bet you that 29% of the time, whenever I post, the next day it's 20 degrees cooler than it was the day before and raining in at least one part of the world.

  5. Re:There's more to it by AvantLegion · · Score: 4, Insightful
    For those keeping score at home, this will be the 15th Madden game - so the curse has stuck on roughly 29 percent of the games.

    for 71% of cover-guys, the "hex" has no effect!

    Oh man. Are you gonna feel real stupid in a minute...

    Guess who was on the cover from 1991 to 2000?

    JOHN MADDEN himself!

    Players have only been on the cover from 2001-2004. And I didn't mention Marshall Faulk, who fits right in with George and Culpepper. 2003 was Faulk's second worst season in 11 years of pro ball. Easily below his "average". And Vick missed 2/3rds of his cover season with injury.

    Let's see... 1.. 2... 3.. 4...

    Yup, every PLAYER that's been on the cover.

    Come on, a little research before you post.

    And what brainiac modded that insightful? Wow.