Slashdot Mirror
MS Sales Growth Limited by Delays in Windows
Alien54 writes "As reported by Bloomberg, Microsoft Corp.'s sales growth will probably drop below 10 percent next fiscal year for the first time because delays in the next version of Windows have created the longest-ever lag between releases of the software. They go into some detail on how the lack of new products also hurts multiyear subscriptions, because clients that buy the contracts expecting to get product upgrades may not renew if new items won't be available for a while. Didn't someone say once that they have enough reserves to last 5 years without any sales at all?"
I wonder how much Longhorn is going to cost exactly? A combination of Microsoft's obviously declining userbase and 5+ years of development costs needing to be covered is going to mean Longhorn's pricetag will have to be pretty steep if MS is going to profit directly from it.
Hmm... the article claims "Windows runs 93 percent of the world's personal computers". That's way more than I would have guessed. How is that measured exactly? And who by?
...for Microsoft. At least my computer doesn't seem outdated even though I'm running Windows 2000, which is over 4 years old. That's like 50 in internet years.
Karma: Meh (Mostly from meh.)
Depending on how well the Distribution creators handle this, this can be a blessing or a curse for Linux. Generally speaking, companies want equal or better features before they consider switching (equal, if price is the main concern - better, if it's not).
The long delay between releases will give Linux a chance to improve itself, and present a better alternative to Windows, with more features, better security, and a lower price.
However, this can also be a curse - MS is taking their sweet time, and this may be due to fixes, or it may simply be that they are developing stable, great features. If Microsoft releases a slew of new features which businesses find to be essential, Linux will once again be playing the "catch up" game.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the course of the next few years.
My company does Windows consulting primarily, but we do have two Mac guys (one of whom is me) who handle the art departments at large corporations, among other Mac-based clients.
Company management has been concerned for some time that the 'project' aspect of our business will take a nosedive during this long period between major Windows releases-- many of our clients have already upgraded to Windows 2003 server and have mostly XP and 2000 client workstations that won't need replacement for a few years. With the Longhorn delays adding up, the Windows integration side of our business is facing something akin to a nuclear winter.
In light of this, we just had a long meeting yesterday about things we need to do to bring in new Mac clients and otherwise grow the Mac side of the business.
Hopefully, Apple will take advantage of Longhorn's long gestation period as well.
Its at apoint that the wait will help. Because most operating systems 98, 2000, me (yuck), XP work on the same computer. What is the incentive to upgrade. I forgot the eactual statistic but isnt there a sizable percentage of the computers on the net still using 98. I know we have two computers at home using 98. And there is no reason to upgrade them. But in like 5 years or so the computers are going to be so much faster. Wasnt it that the specs for longhorn needed dual processors running at 4-6 ghz, a gig of ram and like a terabyte of hard drive space. That is something that these prexisting systems just wont know what to do with. by waiting so long there no way that 98 is going to be able to run on a system like that. Everyone will have to buy longhorn.
30% Troll, 50% Underrated, 10% Interesting
Score:5, Troll
So we're used to having MS release a new hit cd every two years. By hit I mean boy-band tracks hastily cobbled together and pushed out the door to an awaiting fanbase. (look, how else do you explain it?)
Ballmer and Gates make press conferences touting their new hit singles like "A New Outlook" and "DRM - Quicker Than A Ray Of Light" -- but of course you can't just buy the singles. You have to buy the entire CD...and good luck trying to get rid of the tracks you don't want.
Now people started complaining about how their hits aren't put together well so they decided to finally take it slow, spend time at the studio, and actually sit down to make good music. The fanbase was like "awwww, you didn't have to do that!" while the critics were "riiiight, like they'd REALLY do that."
Then MS realized they're not going make the 2 year cycle deadline so faster than you can say "oops, I did it again" they start tossing out stuff they were promising to deliver. Their new hit "Palladium Blues" may have to wait. That new Filesystem track that you could Tae Bo to -- gone.
So what's left? Probably a complete rehash of their latest album. Maybe they'll P-Diddy some of the stuff Apple released a few years ago. Toss in a reworked "IE Blockin' Da Poppas" along with Ballmer's dance moves and the fanbase will eat it up like a warm leftover casserole.
As for me, I'm a critic, not a fan. I'll stick to my GPL's Greatest Hits cd. You know, the one that comes with the "I Honk For Herring" sticker and a video of Stallman singing the "Hacker Song." I must say I passed on the Torvalds In Speedos poster, though.
... the prohibitively high cost of the recommended standard hardware configuration for Longhorn is also going to effect MS' sales.
Of course, this is all good news for Linux on the desktop.
Free Firefox news reader.
Does anyone else wonder what it might mean when a company as massively gigantically ginormous as Microsoft can't churn out a new release of a flagship program in a year or two? They are either doing something exceptionally cunning and devious or else they simply can't make a new version in this space of time, and I'm sure we all go with option b.
I just think it means personal computers are now officially insane.
The beta was for MSDN subscribers, the RC1 is a public release...
n xp pro/sp2preview.mspx
http://www.microsoft.com/technet/prodtechnol/wi
If you're a developer it's really essential to have at least one PC running it (preferable amd64) as there are a lot of changes... the NX protection fubars Mozilla, Digiguide, most Antivirus software, etc.
So now we have an opportunity. Longhorn is supposed to be packed with great new features such as WinFS, C# and .net. Are we just going to copy them, or come up with some new personal computing paradigms? If so, what would they be?
Computers are useless. They can only give you answers.
-- Pablo Picasso
Microsoft's Business model has always been to create an artificial demand for non-essential products. Why should you have to upgrade your OS every 2 years!?? I have clients who are still happily running their businesses with Windows 2000 Server and Windows 98SE clients; and if it wasn't for Microsoft eliminating support for NT and 95, they would probably still be happily using those products. What's especially annoying about Microsoft is that they keep removing features with every upgrade. When one of my clients upgraded from 95 to 98 they were surprised to find that they lost their intra-office e-mail (MS Exchange Server used to be free with 95) and couldn't understand why they had to BUY Outlook. Another client was incensed when they replaced one of their 98SE computers and were forced by Dell to purchase it with Windows ME (ugh!) only to find out that Microsoft had removed all support for tape drives. Another client was pissed off when they replaced one of their Win 98 clients with a Windows XP Home machine only to find out that he would have to pay more to upgrade to XP Pro because XP home wouldn't automatically log in to his NT server like his 98 clients could. Another reason Microsoft likes to release new OSes often is that it gives them many opportunities to "break" their competitor's programs (in the application "space"). Just ask Corel or Borland how they feel about MS's new OSes. Also, with each new OS, Microsoft becomes more draconian. Don't forget what they've done with Media Player (with the EULA that grants them the right to pretty much do whatever they want to to your computer). Now they're going to build DRM right into the OS!? We're supposed to trust Microsoft!!? I do like Win 2000, and that's the main OS on most of my Windows boxes. I think that Windows XP would be a fine OS if not for the mediocre apps you get with it (Internet Explorer, Outlook, etc...)and the annoying invasive features (Media Player's DRM, activation etc...). It would be nice if Microsoft would work on getting one OS right and then supporting it for a while, rather than giving us "disposables" (ME being the most obvious example). Microsoft treats it's Operating System just like it was an application suite. That's not what I call a stable platform. This also MS's strategy in the "development space". Everything's a moving target and there's attempts to make everything "proprietary Microsoft" (just look at Microsoft's attempts to derail Java with J++, and any resemblance of VisualBasic.NET to Visual Basic is purely coincidental...). I'm steadily migrating clients to Linux, on both the Server and Client side, and also in the "application and development space". Those I have migrated so far are very happy with the stability and security, and enjoy not feeling manipulated by microsoft's release schedules and arbitrary licensing.
I worked there 3 years. Every company meeting went like this:
Jesus god all mighty we got a lot of money from Office and Windows this year. Here's their breakdown, and here's everybody else, some made money, some didn't, but who cares because Office and Windows really came through!
Now, even though it's just ridiculous, we still expect 15-20% growth from Office and Windows again. And I'll be damned if they don't go out and do it, year, after year, after year.
Trust me, if MS does one thing at all, it's make its numbers.
6GHZ/2GB/1TB specs HAS to be a JOKE. The only way Microsoft would make money off the machine is new comptuers, seeing that older computers coundn't run it
You are completely correct, and completely missed the point. MS has driven the hardware market for over a decade.
Because MSWindows3.1 was limited to 16MB, the memory sellers had to keep the price on 16MB of RAM as high as possible, because they couldn't sell more to the public. When MSWindows95 both allowed and required more, RAM immediately dropped in price, but everybody was buying it.
MSWindowsME, 2K, XP each required a better processor than the last because MS kept adding garbage to the OS that made it slow.
Hard drives have finally escaped MS's control. Previously, you needed a larger hard drive when you installed a newer MS OS, MSOffice, or MSVisualStudio. The only other programs for the public that required hard drive space were games, and you could uninstall them. Now people are buying very large hard drives to store their music and movies. A friend just bought an additional 300GB drive because he filled his 200GB drive in less than 6 months by recording TV shows.
MS's statement that Longhorn ("Windows 2010") will require 6GHZ/2GB/1TB was a promise to the PC manufacturers. The manufacturers could start selling Linux PCs that get great performance, and try to make money on support (with more expensive technicians.) Or they could stick with MS, and sell tons of hardware if Longhorn is ever released.
The downside is that the only reason people upgrade today is when their PC is slowed by spyware and viruses. Again, MS gets the credit for making it possible to continue selling PCs to the general public. With older hardware, people would notice when an evil program was installed. Now they do not complain until they have around 50 spyware/viruses installed. If people started buying Linux PCs, viruses and spyware would not slow their PCs, and nobody (except gamers) would upgrade.
MS's delay in releasing a new OS is because MS's sales growth is limited. They are having difficulty convincing people to upgrade to XP. Longhorn will not be have a killer app that gets everybody to buy a new PC. MS sales growth is slowing; soon it will decline. They desperately need a new cash cow, because MSWindows and MSOffice are becoming unwanted.
Nobody bought WindowsXP without a new PC. Nobody upgrades MSOffice unless they buy a new PC. MS must keep delaying Longhorn until enough people have upgraded from MSWindows98 to make it worthwhile. A 1 GHz PC is more than good enough for the general public. MS needs to tell the PC manufacturers that business will improve if they wait long enough. That is why they have released those silly specifications.
I spend my life entertaining my brain.
There are a lot of things that are a little off in this, and I think you might making big generalizations based upon your views. Have a salt shaker ready, but most of this is unintentional Longhorn FUD, some of it prolly deserved and at least you didn't mention Copland. :) MS isn't the only one who is going to experience this, others already have (ie, Copland, or even OSX).
:) I just don't really think there's some perfect storm going on here, and I don't think a lot of others do either.
.doc format? Alright, change it, with a lil DRM for spice. This could be any number of things, including online media. In short, MS is in a long hard slog until they reach the next technical plateau. Then they can cruise awhile, then its more billions.
After watching OSs come and go over the years, I've basically come to the conclusion that a major Operating System project coming together when its supposed to is more of a happy accident than anything. This stuff comes up whenever every major OS is being developed. Writing the kinds of stuff MS is trying to do is hard, hard stuff. Just ask Apple... things might look all well and rosy over in their camp, but its not if you look closer. Same with Linux. And its only going to get harder as the demands increase, which is something any game developer understands.
Bill Gates coined it best when he said "Momentum begets momentum". The problem is that once you reach a certain point (call it what you will, market saturation, etc) you have to push harder and harder to keep that momentum. IE, once you've reach escape velocity, you're cruising from the outer atmosphere to the moon. But to get to mars in a reasonable time frame is a bitch and a half. To get out of the solar system is an exponentially bigger bitch, etc, etc.
That's ~95% of the problem MS is facing, which is the old adage of being a vicitim of your own success. Same thing is starting to happen with chip makers, as others have recently commented on... sure, speed can keep improving exponentially, but the cost to do so can become prohibitively expensive.
But of course MS is going to get there, even if each super-dooper feature they've promised won't be in it. Apple's feature list kinda had to be paired down drastically, and even then it still shipped years late and couldn't play DVDs, just to keep some perspective.
I mentioned the momentum thing, which MS understands full well. When you're pushing that rock up the hill, the last 10% is often the highest. MS, like others, is simply going to try to raise the barrier to entry to a level where OSS competitors are having to play catch up to the next plateau. They're even doing it with Google: you better believe they're in the fight for their lives soon. Think Soviet Union vs USA: arms race, and whoever can outspend the other before one falls wins. Thats one aspect... the other is where a drug patent x expires, and the company combines x with y, and even though x+y may be nothing special they spend tens of millions of dollars advertising it to joe schmoe who, when they go to their doctor, only wants the purple pill.
People are happy with x, and Linux gets x. Fine, MS spends a huge amount making x+y, then marketing it, and everyone wants x+y, which Linux doesn't have. OpenOffice seem to have too good of a
To specifically go through some of the problem points:
1) Lack of new products prevents sales and damages customer loyalty.
Debatable, but I'll give it to you. I don't think most people care about not having yearly OS updates, in fact if I had to wager i'd guess most consider it a feature. Knowing game x from 3 years ago still works is a big boon in joe sixpacks world. And mine, come to think of it. Now if 3rd party releases weren't hitting, yeah, obvious point. But since I don't know for sure, I'll give it to ya.
2) Severe worms damage customer loyalty, increase costs in maintenance and customer service.
In a perfect world, absolutely.