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Are PDAs Simply Finished?
angkor writes "After Sony's sudden plan to discontinue the Clie and pull out of the American PDA market, many industry observers have increased their speculation about the demise of the PDA, in general. The Japanese electronics giant was defeated in the American market by increased competition and an industry-wide decline in PDA sales."
Most people I know already have a PDA and have no plans to buy a new one since their current one does what they want. Its not that people no longer use PDAs, its that people aren't compelled to upgrade to a newer model since it offers nothing new for them.
No, PDA's are not finished, but I hope they will take their proper place as an INEXPENSIVE replacement for a day-timer style notebook and stop trying to be a replacement for a PC. I don't want to spend $200, much less $600 on something that is so easily lost, stolen or dropped. People who do are either gadget freaks, or are spending someone else's money. Of course, if you work for a company so overburdened by cash that they give you a desktop PC AND a laptop AND a $600 PDA you'd be foolish not to take it, but for the rest of us a sub $100 device is more than adequate. I'd really like to have the thing I carry around cost more like $50 or less so that I could be even more careless with it than I already am.
Sony is wise to exit a market that is oversaturated as is. Let Microsoft and Palm fight over what is left. My guess is that eventually most people will be carrying around something from Casio because the price is right and the functionality is good enough. Palm and Microsoft will lose money fighting over the "road-warriors" which will ultimately lead to Palm going under followed by Microsoft losing interest. A fitting end to the insanity.
Because of Moore's law, the gap between PDA and phone has narrowed to the extent that there really isn't one in terms of computing power.
What then, is the difference between a phone and a PDA? Apart from the telephony aspect, the only significant difference is one that will endure - the screen size. When is that significant?
Phones have a maximum screen size of 2 inches. This isn't likely to expand because that's the limit of most peoples pockets, and phones will always have to fit in pockets. PDA's like iPAQ have a screen size of 3.5 inches. When it comes to document and map viewing, that's a lot more than a phone.
PDAs will continue to exist to the extent that map and document viewing proliferates - at least, to the extent that mobile mapping and document viewing applications proliferate that require 3.5 inch displays.
I think the major reason "PDAs" are dying is because virtually every cellphone on sale these days has most of the functionality PDAs are generally used for, with the exception of efficient note taking (a feature I rarely see my PDA-owning friends using in practice)
I quoted "PDAs" in the above because in a sense, that means that cellphones are the next generation PDAs, a device you keep in your pocket, that stores your contacts, calendar, and general notes, can perform calculations, let you play games when you're bored, etc - that happens to incorporate an additional function PDAs never had, the ability to contact anyone in the world - by message or voice - in seconds.
You are not alone. This is not normal. None of this is normal.
People want either highly specialized mini computers (ie audio players), or they want the full power of a computer.
I think this is how the PDA lost its edge. It *used* to be an inexpensive, specialized satellite device. Then feature creep came in and everyone wanted more memory, bigger screens, full color support, sound, graphics, wireless, etc., etc. If Palm started selling something akin to the original device, but at a much lower cost (say $25-$50), they would probably see sales pick up.
The problem is that such a device would invalidate the tremendous library of existing software. Thus they need less of a true Palm Pilot and more of a new "mini-Palm" platform for the "cost-conscious". I myself love my Sony CLIE and am sad to hear of their demise, but I also bought mine on sale for $130. There's no way I'm going to spend $300-$500 on something I might lose. Not to mention the fact that my occasional (albeit useful) usage doesn't justify a high price tag.
Javascript + Nintendo DSi = DSiCade
One reason I like my PDA (and as I'm sure others will point out) is that I can use it as a portable library of e-books. Plus, being able to play a game of solitaire while sitting on the crapper is a big plus (just don't tell anyone you're going to the toilet for some solitaire!)
But the main reason I have for keeping it seperate from my phone (besides screen size) is this: I DON'T HAVE TO PAY A MONTHLY FEE TO USE MY PDA!
Why does it seem that more devices like this which can be purchased once and used without a monthly charge are being edged out by cheap, tatty phones and the like that require service agreements? Who the hell NEEDS a phone with a million features (PDA, camera, video mail, etc) when all one really needs is a phone that lets you place and receive calls?
Non tam praeclarum est scire Latine, quam turpe nescire
-- Cicero
They do. The Palm Zire 21 is sold at Wal-Mart in a blister pack for $80 It has all the functionality of a old Palm 5. But that also brings up another point. I know alot of people at work that still use Palm 5 & 7s. They were built to last and so the market for replacements is slow. Alot of people are happy with older devices. I sold a friend my old Palm 3x because my son no longer wanted it after I gave him my old Paml M105. My current Palm is the Tungsten E ($180) and it does everything I need it to. I do also have a new Dell Inspiron 5150 gaming laptop, at 9Lbs it does not fit in my pocket the way a Palm does 8^)
Science is the Real TRUTH!
nope... not the answer...
My origional PAlm Pilot. was in heavy use until I replaced it with a Sharp Zaurus.. most peopl that use palm devices are very happy with their unit for years, which is a Deathwish for any electronics manufacturer.. the PAlm PDA was too good. it worked, the apps did not take 90Meg of space and a 4 meg palm pilot could be used quite well by even a power user and have room for gobs of data plus books in it.
The same can NOT be said about any other PDA.
I am sitting here with a almost worn out sharp SL5500 looking to replace it with the new 6000 upgrade... but yet my palm III from over 4 years ago is still doing it's job nicely, works great, the battery pack does not fade (AAA batteries are cheap and better than any LiIon battery made.) and it's doing things my GF thoughh you needed to buy a new PDA for.
PalmOS is the killer Pocket OS... it doesn't obsolete the hardware at every version... and that is the problem.
Thre last Clie from SONY is the ultimate Palm Pilot, and people that buy them dont go upgrading every year as they dont need to.
and that is the problem.... if your product doesnt hook the customer into the "upgrade" cycle then you are doomed.
Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.