Japanese Videogame Market Declines Further

Thanks to 1UP for its note discussing a report on the state of the Japanese videogame market in 2003, as tallied by the CESA (Computer Entertainment Software Association) trade body. The result was an "11% decline in total hardware and software sales in Japan, to 446 billion yen ($4.1 billion), in the past year", and apparently: "2003's sales figure represents a slide of approximately 40% since 1997, when the Japanese games market last peaked at the height of the PlayStation's popularity." The news story author goes on to suggest: "CESA's report blames a significant loss of audience for the continual decline of the Japanese games market, partially thanks to the increasing complexity of big-ticket games. The upcoming debut of new handheld platforms from Nintendo and Sony represent the industry's next chance to bounce back and regain their audience in Japan." What's the difference between the Japanese experience and the relatively buoyant Western gaming market?

Comments

YUO STOAL MY FRIST POST

[Qwaniton]

Good troll, you'd win my mod points, but it also brings up a good point about culture. The demographics are simply different.

Gaming in America simply doesn't take the same cultural role as it does in Japan. Gaming here is largely casual. While I woed the death of the "hardcore gamer" and the overrun of Joe Schmo with his X-Box into the gaming world, the casual Joe Gamer is by far the largest market. Japan really doesn't have a casual Joe Gamer, thus they don't really release "casual games". Most, if not all, Japanese games are deep, engrossing, and masterpieces in their own right. When they come over here, they get the "hardcore gamer" market, since the average American gaming nerd scoops this stuff up, whether it's a masterpiece or simply mediocre. Plus, there's the fanboy effect.

However, in Japan, the quality will make or break the game, and their tastes are much more discriminating. It seems that Japanese gamers are simply burning out of the latest round of less-than-wonderful games. Maybe it's a retro thing. Who knows. I suppose Japanese gamers are burned out of the latest fare in gaming.

This is a problem America will never have, because America is much more casual in this respect. The Japanese gamers are quite serious about it, while American gamers aren't. Thus, the Japanese market is much more vulnerable to losing ground because of sheer mediocrity.

As an aside, even as a Nintendo fanboy I'm starting to doubt their latest developments, and I'm quite skeptical that the Nintendo DS will save Nintendo. Nintendo has suffered from games built around gimmicks lately, like Luigi's Mansion for the GameCube controller, the E-Reader, the GC-GBA connectivity, and now the "dual-screen" gimmick. It's starting to get old.

Re:YUO STOAL MY FRIST POST

[Qwaniton]

Their control of the handheld market is the only thing keeping them alive. They've made horrible decisions with the N64 and GameCube. They're killing themselves!

I think I'll be in my corner hugging my Super NES and weeping.

Re:YUO STOAL MY FRIST POST

[Svenheim]

If you can actually back up with FACTS why they are killing themselves, please tell me. N64 was the 2nd largest console worldwide at the time. Gamecube is still 2nd on the market worldwide, slightly ahead of XBox.

I am not saying they havent made several bad decisions, they have, but "killing themselves" is such an overstatement. Financially they are a much healthier company than Sony, for example.

And they still make several million-selling console games every year. As far as I see it, Nintendo's biggest problem on the console side is that several of the 3rd party games very well on their systems, because Nintendo owners tend to spend their money on the 1st or 2nd-party Nintendo franchises first, and then buy 3rd party games if they still have money left. This has been improved lately tho, they are slowly gaining better 3rd party support, by working closer with big companies like Namco and Capcom.

Re:Saturation

[sien]

Doing the numbers, the Japanese population 127M, the US's 293M. So the population ration is 2.3.

From the figures given, the Japanese spend 4.1B on games, with 1.27 or 30% on hardware.

The US spends 7B on software, assuming the same breakdown that means about 10B on software.

Now, if Japan were as large as the US and the amount spent on games increased similarly they would spend 2.3 * 4.1B or 9.4B on games.

So actually, both markets are about the same at the moment. However, if Japanese spending is down 40 percent then years ago this was true.

Of course, all this neglects age distributions which would be crucial.

Perhaps the game companies should take note, perhaps people will get bored of games and their sales are set to fall. After all, what is the difference between great looking Fifas or Maddens?

Could it be

[foidulus]

that the long-sagging birth rate in Japan has really taken a bite out of game sales? The Japanese birth rate is only about 1.4 or so, compared to the US's 2.06. Thats pretty significant(and has long term implications for the country as a whole). Also note that 21.25% of the American population is under 14, versus only 14% of the Japanese. Now I realize that there are adult gamers, but a large chunk of the video game market is to kids and teens. In both raw numbers and percentages, the US has a much larger market, and the Japanese market is, and has been for a while, falling.
Sources:
US Demographics
Japan Demographics

"Obvious"

[talaphid]

My reason for the downturn is that we're at a lowpoint on the console replacement treadmill. Everyone's GOT their Xbox and Halo, PS2 and FFX/X-2, Gamecube and Mario Sunshine(Look, Miyamoto, the problem isn't 3d, the problem is outrageous difficulty/essentially arbitrary success)/Crystal Chronicles... when were each of these systems released?...

We've also got everyone waiting on their flagship sequel / major sequel for the next gen... no duh sales are down. I'm not going to buy the same TV every year guys, what makes you think I'm going to buy 5 Xboxes when one plays my Halo just fine?

(Yes, I saw it was a combined total, but go watch the history of video games special - the Xbox's limited success (the success portion) is due to it being the Halo-player)

Video-Gaming post-modernism

[Neo-Rio-101]

I think that video gaming has reached a kind of "post-modernism" these days. That basically means that everything than can be done with a screen and a controller has already been done - which leaves very few original ideas left to develop on.

Maybe this is just a pessimistic view, but I just tried to think up a new game idea and realised that I'm coming up short.

Most of the other posters make the right comments though. I'm in Japan. There are fewer children. The adults that are here work long hours and have no time to play. The country is slowly recovering from recession, but the fact that there are few new Japanese kids means it won't get too far. The pension system is a mess... people are hoarding cash (I know I am).

The fact that new consoles don't offer anything new that hasn't already been done (can't rely on fancy graphics anymore), so there's no incentive to buy. Maybe when the PS3 comes out everyone will jump out to get one and we'll see renewed interest... but I don't know. Xbox in Japan is DOA now... VERY few titles on the shelves. Nintendo is losing their target market to a low birth rate.

If we're talking casual gamers in Japan... well they use cell phones mainly. Others use Gameboys.
The Japanese are more into fun cutesy games as opposed to the west where graphics and realism take a front seat.

Still, Japan has plenty of nerds and manga never seems to bore anyone. And as long as you write a cheap game with little playability, lots of scantily clad ladies, and make it a complete rip-off of the "dead and alive" series (as one budget game company just did in Japan), you can score highly on the Japanese game charts.