Analysts Predict Tough Christmas For Game Publishers

Thanks to Gamesindustry.biz for its article regarding predictions of a tough 2004 holiday season for all videogame publishers, as an analyst report from Banc of America Securities claims "competition in the games market will be much more intense than last year", and argues that "some games will just not receive any shelf space from retailers, and initial shipments of titles will be very low, even by historical standards." The report goes on to highlight some non-specific specifics: "We have very low expectations for games of other developers with less-known brands... including Acclaim, Midway (except Mortal Kombat), Atari, Eidos, Vivendi (apart from Half-Life 2, if it is released) and even Microsoft (apart from Halo 2)... Expect many disasters this holiday." Is there really a reason for game creators to worry about what sales Santa will bring them?

Comments

Re:Rhetorical or redundant?

[gl4ss]

well, the way they explain it is that: ***"The report, authored by analysts Gary L Cooper, Eric K Brown and John P Newell, details key clashes between major titles in almost every genre - and presents a convincing argument for the claim that "apart from The Sims 2.0, we do not consider any game this holiday out of harm's way of the competition.""***

so it should be a sweet season for the _gamer_, the reason why it would be hard for the gamemaker is that CRAP TITLES WON'T SELLL. though, it's all about the marketing anyways and god knows how the hell these guys can even predict what games will actually be on sale durin the xmas shopping season.

Re:On a related note

[jonwil]

2 things are happening.

Firstly, PC games are being overtaken by console games.

And secondly, larger studios are getting bigger and more market share at the expense of smaller studios.

you have to remember the different demographics

[jonwil]

They need to sell/market games based on demographics.

For example, games aimed at younger kids should come out around christmas because thats peak season for them. (being that most of those games are bought by parents).

And games aimed at older kids/teenagers/young adults (who increasingly have part time jobs e.g. paper round, fast food or whatever as a source of money to spend on games) should be released at the times of the year when the target audience is most likely to have disposable income and/or free time.

Another thing to remember is that for younger kids, the parents (or grandparents etc) are more likely to be the ones making the decisions on what to buy. Although kids will ask for stuff, just because the kid asks for Gorefest Fighters 3005 Extra Special Extra Super Gore Violence Edition doesnt mean that they are going to get it (cue simpsons quote about episode with bart wanting Bonestorm and ending up with a golf game instead)

On the other hand, bigger kids/teanagers/young adults (and also adults) are going to be more liklely to be making their own decisions on what games to buy (especially if its their own money they are spending)

I do think that there is a market for smaller games (that dont have a huge name/licence attatched). However, that market disappears when the studio does the wrong thing and spends big $$$ on the production.