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Traffic Sim Predicts Jams Before They Happen

Posted by simoniker on from the driving-in-your-jam-jar dept.

Via_Patrino writes "The New Scientist reports that: A traffic simulation system is helping drivers by predicting jams up to an hour before they happen. Traffic flow can be divided into three categories: freely flowing, jammed, and an intermediate state called synchronised flow in which dense traffic moves in unison. Physicists at University of Duisburg-Essen have developed 'the first model to reproduce all known traffic states.' Predicted conditions are displayed on the official website, and more than 90 per cent of the time, traffic density is predicted correctly."

4 of 218 comments (clear)

  1. A note by pyth · · Score: 4, Insightful

    For those people concerned that releasing the predictions will interfere with the results, please remember that not many people will actually use this tool.

  2. Re:What is the cause? by skraps · · Score: 5, Insightful
    And if everyone reads when there will be a jam, no-one will drive then, and the traffic jam will be at a different time.
    Presumably, this is a closed-loop system, with a short loop. The predictions are based on very recent, near real-time data. If the traffic is affected by people reading the predictions, then the predictions would adjust to compensate very quickly.
    --
    Karma: -2147483648 (Mostly affected by integer overflow)
  3. They just need to take this into account... by ebyrob · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Use the "effects" of the prediction to get the desired results. For example, if you want clear sailing on Route 9 going north at 4:00pm, predict bad traffic ahead of time.

    If you want more predictable traffic patterns, fudge prediction differences downwards so that less people will take action based on the predictions.

    It's all one big feedback loop, dampen accordingly.

  4. Re:Synchronized flow isn't stable by jrumney · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The density of traffic would be lower because the traffic is flowing more smoothly, not because less cars are using the road. This is a good thing.