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On Xbox Live's Past, Present, Future
Thanks to TeamXbox for its interview with Andre Vrignaud from Microsoft's Xbox Live Platform Strategy Team, in which he discusses topics including user numbers (they're "on track" for 1 million subscribers by now, and "on average people are playing three hours a day (which is up from the 2.5 hours we saw a year ago), and the average number of people on Friends lists continues to climb - it's a little over 13 right now."), as well as the Xbox Live alerts through MSN Messenger ("In fact, you can look at these as being the first pieces of Xbox Live on Windows. If anything, people are pushing us to release more of Live on Windows as quickly as possible - and we're working on it!")
It's already been done - at least somewhat.
Programs like XBConnect give you a friends list as well as chatrooms where likeminded people can meet and organize a game.
It takes advantage of the xbox LAN connectivity (all xbox's have ethernet adapters included by default, and can be connected via hub/switch for large multiplayer battles) and emulates the packet structure, fooling the xbox into thinking traffic that is sent through the internet is legitimate and is taking place on a LAN. Most games that support LAN play work with it already; there is no need for an xbox live subscription at all.
Take a look for yourself
This is done on purpose. Even when XNA is launched, I doubt you'll see many games that support online games working cross-platform. The main reason is the control interface. People on the PC using keyboard + mouse would completely own anyone playing on an Xbox in any type of FPS game (including Pandora Tomorrow). A secondary reason is cheats. Until it can be completely proven that a PC online game can't be hacked, I don't want any PC's connected to Xbox Live.
After MS releases Live for Windows, that's probably what you'll have: Xbox Live and Windows Live. There may be some crossover functionality (sharing friends lists, common accounts, etc.), but having the same game work online for both console and PC users wouldn't work out too well. The one thing that may change this sooner is if MS starts selling Xbox controllers for PC users. Games that work online between Xbox and PC would have to require using the Xbox controller on the PC.
Dan
XBL makes it much easier for developers to make their games online enabled and to make money online with their games beyond the purchase (see DDR's for sale content.)
If it is such a failure, why have developers for PS2, with a much larger market considering the consoles sold and the potential to use broadband, only made 80 online games for the PS2 whearas the Xbox has just as many?
And only one in ten Xboxes have live? Any stats on PS2? And are you sure it's 1 in 10 for markets that live is available? I don't think they sold more than 10 million xboxes in the States, so it's probably a ratio higher than that.
An increase of 2.5 hours to 3 is only because the number of dimwits has increased and it takes that much longer to find decent people to play with. Most people swear too much more than is either funny, meaningful, or than they would in conversations in the "real world." Very few demonstrate any kind of patience with newbies even though everyone starts out that way. They drop out when they start losing and are poor losers.
I've found that Live is much more fun during the summer afternoons when the 8-5 30 year old assholes are at work and the only people playing are kids, who are usually much nicer, polite, and patient.
Live's most necessary feature is not so much Windows integration, it's some fair means of warning me when I'm getting into a game with someone who demonstrates poor sportsmanship. the primary question for MS-Xbox shouldn't be, "How can windows users know when people are online?" it should be, "How can people fairly rate the sportsmanship of other players?"