SETI Predicts We'll Find ETs by 2020

FTL writes "Based on the Drake Equation, Moore's Law, and the Allen Telescope, a new prediction has been made that Earth will make first contact with aliens within 20 years. Of course once we find the first aliens there's the question of can we decode their signals, would they spot our reply, and what's the lag time."

Comments

16 years of radio lotto

[Lord Grey]

Within a generation, radio emissions from enough stars will be observed and analysed to find the first alien civilisation, Shostak estimates. But because they will probably be between 200 and 1000 light years away, sending a radio message back will take centuries.

OK, I'm curious. How is this 200-1000 light year estimate derived?

"But predicting the date, the decade or even the century of contact is another matter because the 'other end' of the communications link is completely out of our hands. ..."

Our planet emits enough radio energy to look like a small sun, but it hasn't done so for very long. Some scientists believe that it won't continue at the present level, either, because future requirements will demand higher-capacity transmissions -- radio transmission will fall off in favor of something that's more tightly-focused, in other words.

Making the large assumption that an alien race will go through a similar radio transmission curve, and considering the fact that we don't know how far away said alien civilization is, the chances of us finding them between now and 2020 seems very remote.

Re:To Serve Man

[Kenrod]

For all we know, humans might rank at the cattle level on a galactic scale. You know - really stupid and very, very tasty.

Is SETI Even On The Right Track?

[GoatChunks]

I've been wondering this...and all of you people that think you're smart might be able to figure this out for me. SETI uses radio telescopes to search for E.T., right? Now, I understand that these radio telescopes don't just search for AM/FM radio signals, but basically waves within the full broadcast spectrum. So they're looking for AM/FM, TV, CB, Wi-Fi, wide band, short, wave, cell phones, etc. So I guess the basic thinking is that any intelligent race will use radio signals of some sort. How long have humans been using some kind of radio signals? In the general scheme of things, a very brief time. How much longer will we be using them? Is this something that will be with us forever, or will it die out as our technology advances? Assuming our technology will advance, somehow, to exclude broadcast signals, our planet, from space, will become rather quiet. Also assuming that all intelligent life evolves along a similar timeline, we can assume that these other planets will emit radio signals for only a brief period of time. But somehow we're assuming that that time will somehow coincide with our own. It makes finding a needle in a haystack even harder when the damned needle keeps moving around. Enlighten me. How can SETI possibly work? (That said, I do have the SETI@Home software running on all of my machines...so I'm hopeful.)