Full Report On Holiday Game Crunch Released

Thanks to GameSpy for its article analyzing Banc Of America's in-depth report on videogame prospects for Christmas 2004. The report, previously referenced on Slashdot earlier this month, is now available for download [PDF link], and GameSpy explains the report "[isn't] trying to predict what the best games of the holiday are going to be. They're predicting what the best selling games are going to be, and which ones will meet expectations set by company leaders." The Banc analysts predict that Halo 2 "will be the second-best seller of the holiday season, just behind GTA: San Andreas", and suggest that certain titles, specifically "Bloodrayne 2, Terminator 3: The Redemption, The Red Star, 100 Bullets, Crash n' Burn, Predator: Concrete Jungle, and Shadow Hearts 2", should be moved beyond the holiday season entirely, to "avoid big-name products coming out on the same time-frame."

Comments

Release Dates and Indie Releases

[MiceHead]

The Banc analysts predict that Halo 2 "will be the second-best seller of the holiday season..." and suggest that certain titles should be moved beyond the holiday season entirely, to "avoid big-name products coming out on the same time-frame."

Release dates are always tricky, but I think there's a solution aside from Banc of America's proposed delay. Just as the concurrent releases (scroll down) of Batman, Lethal Weapon, and Indiana Jones crushed UHF, high-profile games such as Doom 3 have the potential to utterly destroy the smaller competition, such as our own title, scheduled for an August release. However, here are three ways we hope to avoid being eaten:

• Complementary Benefits - If the competition leaves something desirable out of their design, a developer can cater to that. Untold zillions of people (myself, included) have enjoyed a myriad of games in the first-person shooter genre. Many of these players would love to create their own levels and content, but lack the time or technical expertise to do this, even with the mod tools available. We want our offering to allow anyone adept enough to play our game to be able to create within it. I'm hoping that folks of all ages can play other FPSes, and still enjoy our game, for that reason.
• Consistency - From a marketing standpoint, the release of a small title is almost a non-event; rather, steady and consistent support causes awareness to gradually snowball. After all, most FPS fans know than Doom 3 will be released on 7/20/2004 (just kidding), but unless PGC and CWG suddenly do big pieces on indie developers, they won't be slapping us onto their covers. So, for us, it's a long-haul grassroots thing -- hopefully, this means that players will benefit from lots of fresh, new content over the next 12 months.
• Differentiation - This is where the consumer stands to win the most: developers can recognize saturation in a sub-genre and create products that evolve it. Or: to those who lament the current state of the myriad identical MMOGs, don't fret -- it's only a prelude to evolution! Our biggest example of this is the ability to create arenas. But we also apply it in small ways; whereas Doom 3 and Half Life 2 approach hyperrealism, we're trying for the oppsite effect. Aesthetics are not central to our game, but I hope players will consider it pretty enough -- and different enough -- to enjoy.

Reliance on the Big Launch seems like a losing proposition for all but the highest-profile titles. I'm banking on the slow, steady approach, which may end up with my being able to eat for another year, or my living in a cardboard box. I'll let you know in 2005.

____________________________
Inago Rage - Coming Summer 2004

Re:BOOO Product Advertisement

[Vaevictis666]

Wtf are you on...

Seriously. First up, the article was on Gamespy, not GameSpot.

Secondly, Banc of America is an inventment advising company, not an actual Bank (though they do seem to be related to the actual Bank of America). It makes sense that _someone_ needs to investigate the trends in gaming so that the investors know when to buy or sell stock for Activision or whoever.

Singing: Give Prince of Persia a Chance.....

[superultra]

Bloodrayne 2, Terminator 3: The Redemption, The Red Star, 100 Bullets, Crash n' Burn, Predator: Concrete Jungle, and Shadow Hearts 2

So basically, if your game is crap don't release when everyone else does. Makes sense. These games all look horrible even from this early on.

Although what I'm much more concerned about are the Prince of Persias and Beyond Good and Evils of this Christmas, like, for example, um, Prince of Persia 2 which is set for November. You'd think that Ubisoft would've learned after last year, but once againt hey're sticking POP2 smack dab in the week before the storm. Why? It's like throwing an olympian runner into a ring with 5 500 pound men and asking him to sumo wrestle. Prince of Persia 2 will be amazing, but there's no way it can hold its own against a GTA, Halo sequel, Half Life sequel, and KOTOR sequel. There are other top tier 300 pound titles as well, like Call to Duty for consoles, or the Sims go ebonic (Urbz), or a LOTR EA game, or Need For Speed Underground sequel. You know, titles people know about.

Ubisoft, if you're reading, give POP the space it needs. Throw it out mid January when the kiddies are trading in GTA:SA and Halo 2 after playing it 14 hours a day during their break. I promise: it'll do better.