"Blue Moon" Appears in Sky Saturday Night
ArbiterOne writes "Tonight a rare spectacle can be seen: the second full moon in a month, which is sometimes called the "blue moon", according to CNN. Don't be disappointed if it isn't actually blue, though; the blueness is caused by increased density of smoke or ash in the air, such as after a volcanic eruption."
I heard that the adoption of the term blue moon in modern usage actually stems from a misappropriation of the term from some Native American tribe (around the time frame you mention, early 19th C). The term, as far as my uninformed and caffeine-addled mind can conjure at the moment, originally referred to an occurrence of a particular full moon that occurred during the three-month harvest season; specifically, when four moons occurred during this three month season, the third of the sequence was called a "blue moon". (The Wikipedia entry seems to make reference to this--see the second entry--but I can't find anything specific on it. Also, it doesn't seem to mention the "harvest" season, just any season, which is not what I heard from my unreliable source.)
This is why our concept of blue moon as the second in a month doesn't seem to make sense in terms of rarity...it's not that rare. It makes a bit more sense if we consider how often four moons occur during the three month harvest season. That was probably quite a bit more rare.
but have you considered the following argument: shut up.
From the article:
None: The earth doesn't rely on a calendar so no pattern is changing.
That would make it 2018 then?b.t.w. I don't think it's "usually february", I think it is always february. Every month other than february is guaranteed to be longer than the synodic period (about 29.5 days), so is guaranteed to contain a full moon. (apart from the month in which you change from julian to gregorian calendars...)
Sky and Telescope has published an article more recently, explaining what happened and their role in it. It is available online.
The moon's cycle is about 29.5 days, which makes about 12.4 full moons a year. That means a blue moon about every 3 years.
The 17 blue moons in 20 years is due to two different definitions of what constitutes a blue moon. So, blue moons are twice as common, because there are two different ways to define what a blue moon is!
Ask me how the Heisenberg Principle may or may not have saved my life.