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Odds-on Science

Posted by CmdrTaco on from the always-bet-on-red dept.

utopia27 writes "According to article in New Scientist, a UK-based bookie will be taking bets for two weeks on major science benchmarks (specifically, odds of implementation by 2010). The ponies are life on Titan, 10,000:1, gravitational waves, 500:1, the Higgs boson, 6:1, cosmic ray origins, 4:1, and nuclear fusion, 100:1."

7 of 349 comments (clear)

  1. Nuclear fusion? by pclminion · · Score: 5, Informative

    We can easily achieve nuclear fusion. The problem is controlling and sustaining it. It should read, "Fusion power plants, 100:1", not "Nuclear fusion, 100:1."

  2. article crunched by Davak · · Score: 4, Informative

    where do I bet?

    As the article is already crunched, is this the same British firm who was allowing you to vote about life on Mars?

  3. Correct Link by ChrisTower · · Score: 5, Informative

    http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns999 96331

    --

    I'm tired of bombing the universe
  4. Re:Obligatory quote by mothz · · Score: 5, Informative

    Actually, the link in the summary is wrong. Here's the actual article.

  5. Life on Titan? by cephyn · · Score: 4, Informative

    Find out by 2010? That's a loser of a bet. Unless Huygens crashes into a Titanian Giraffe, we won't know anything definitive by 2010. It took Cassini 7 years to get there, and 2010 is only 6 years away...

    --
    Moo.
  6. Re:Who sets the odds? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    There are two ways of betting. The "proper", fixed odds way, and pool betting (sometimes known as tote or pari-mutuel).

    Proper, english betting markets are formed by a bookmaker evaluating the probabilities of a selection winning an event. He will then write, say, 6/1 on a big blackboard. If lots of customers think this is a good price, they will all stick lots of money on it. "Oh, poo-pants", thinks the bookie, and cuts the price to 11/2, then 5/1. The customers that have already placed bets have 6/1, but future customers will get 5/1. Under this system, a bookie can, and frequently does, lose thousands on individual events.

    The second way, which I believe is frequently used in the US (in the UK, pool betting is run as the Tote by the government under a monopoly), is pool betting. Say there are two selections, A and B. If £1000 gets staked on A and £100 on B, then A will have odds of 9/1 (or 10.00 if you're american) and B will have odds of 1/10 (or 1.1). In this method the bookie will never lose money, but isn't actually making any books!

    Anti-flame barrier - I know I've over simplified, but I've tried to be concise.

  7. Titan bet not just on life by loqi · · Score: 5, Informative

    I thought the Titan bet was a great deal until I RTFA and found out it's intelligent life on Titan. I think I'll pass.

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    If other reasons we do lack, we swear no one will die when we attack