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The Technology Hype Cycle

Posted by ryuzaki0 on from the this-article-perpetuates-the-cycle dept.

jira writes "What does it take for a new gadget to be succesfull on the market? Which technologies will become part of everyday life in the future? BBC investigates the Techology Hype Cycle."

11 of 193 comments (clear)

  1. 90% marketing by Megaweapon · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The usefulness of a gadget is irrelavent as long as the public buys them. Some tennis shoes are still over $100, right?

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    1. Re:90% marketing by AKAImBatman · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The usefulness of a gadget is irrelavent as long as the public buys them.

      Keep in mind that you'll only be selling them up until your competitor makes a more useful version. Anyone remember that the Rio player used to be king before the iPod came along?

      Make it useful. Your pocketbook will thank you in the long term.

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    2. Re:90% marketing by gl4ss · · Score: 4, Insightful

      well, make it desirable.

      making it useful is just one way to make a product desirable, if you make it hip and cool and religiously(fashion can be one) compatible.

      that's how you get people to buy a pair of tennis shoes for 1000$+.

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  2. Patents by essreenim · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Which technologies will become part of everyday life in the future?
    'Which patents will prevent certain technology (and as a result promote others) and become part of everyday life in the future.

  3. the routine by AlexTheBeast · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The hype cycle isn't just for electronics. Think about IPOs.

    Here's the referenced chart...
    hype chart

    Here's the yahoo 5 year IPO chart...
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=YHOO&t=5y&l=on&z=m &q=l&c=

    Same pathway...

    The is the pathway of ANYTHING new being introduced into the world. First, it's sexy and popular, then it's over done, and then it either levels off or dies.

    1. Re:the routine by dave420 · · Score: 4, Insightful
      Even candy bars... start eating, and they taste great! Keep eating, and you get sick. Then, the attraction decreases rapidly, until you've not eaten them so much that they start to be tasty again, but you don't eat so many so you don't get ill.

      ok, maybe I think about candy too much.

  4. Before something is hyped... by thrill12 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    it must be researched, developed, tested, and proven. Proven technology like MP3 could never have evolved if Fraunhofer wasn't so wise to invent and release the technology. From thereon, it went it's own way (more or less) and evolved into what MP3 is now : mainstream and accepted.
    Before all those people leap into the "why does this work and why this not" they should start at the bottom: research and development. With those two magic words, we are likely to see a whole lot of hypes more. Without it, we can just wait on the next company that goes bankrupt because noone would buy it's proven, but old, products...

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  5. In a nutshell by CodeMaster · · Score: 4, Insightful

    1. Get a new technology that has not matured yet.
    2. Apply it to a maturing retail area (see iTunes and the music market).
    3. Packaging and usability is king if you want to get the mass audience (and no - slashdot readers are NOT the mass audience!)
    4. Profit!

    (5. Putting the little apple logo on it usually helps jump a few steps in the process...)

    Get your free iPod![it really works! - my buddy got his after I signed up, I have just 2 more referrals to go...]

  6. It's not just technology by Weaselmancer · · Score: 4, Insightful

    From the article:

    "Something new would happen, there would be tremendous excitement, followed by disillusionment."

    Sounds like the entire course of human history to me.

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    Weaselmancer
    rediculous.
  7. Re: The technology hype cycle by manavendra · · Score: 5, Insightful

    There was not an absolute iota of information in that article that I could make use of, or carry over with me. It smacks of absolute useless-ness, like a number of other articles

    1. A graph with different tehnologies/device listed against the time it took for them to "mature", with funny names given to each trough and crest of popularity, does not make an insightful report.

    2. There has been no mention of whose definiton of "product maturity" has been used. It is a term widely open for interpretation

    3. It is hilarious to compare the effectiveness, acceptability and market penetration of such varied products as DVD players and PDAs, and so on. There are host of factors that come into play, least of which is the sense of an inane need within the target customer segment.

    I bet that article concludes something. Though I certainly wish it was something more focused than a wannabe "we will have more power in our hands in the future"!

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    http://efil.blogspot.com/
  8. Segway? by MojoRilla · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Sometimes, according to Ms Behrens, a technology can be so hyped it may never meet expectations.

    It seems like the Segway fits here. Vast hype, vast expectations, little impact two and a half years after introduction.