Wharton Professor Weighs In On The Elections

Caesar S. writes "Recent research directed by Wharton School Professor J. Scott Armstrong takes political forecasting to the next level by using innovative techniques to combine forecasts from polls, enonometric models, betting markets and predictions by experts (Delphi surveys). Check out Polly's page to hear Polly the parrot objectively predict this year's presidential election. There's lots more interesting stuff on this site about how electronic markets and Delphi surveys can be used for forecasting. Definitely worth a read."

Comments

Re:Interesting site, but there's a fatal flaw

[Onan]

[speaking of the Electoral College] I like the Republic/Federal system that we use, as opposed to actual Democracy. I am firmly against the Tyranny of the Majority that Democracy can cause (watch what happens in Iraq if they use an actual Democracy), and I believe that the minorities need representation (be they minorities of race, gender, or geography).

Interesting. So you believe that the votes of men should count very slightly more than those of women? That the votes of african americans should be weighted five times as heavily as those of caucasian voters?

Or perhaps we could just shortcut this logic by saying that people who vote for a losing candidate are clearly a minority, and their votes should be up-weighted however far is required for every candidate to receive exactly the same percentage of the adjusted vote?

And if you don't believe that any of those fundamental or self-chosen traits are important enough to do something as sweeping as weighting votes unevenly, why do you believe that the picayune issue of the average residential density of your state is?