Slashdot Mirror
Successful Earthquake Prediction
An anonymous reader writes "Although a touch late, it appears that today's earthquake was successfully predicted by the Keilis-Borok team. (The prediction was covered previously on Slashdot.) Purists might argue that the gap between both distance and magnitude is too large to count in favor of the prediction, but this non-geologist is certainly impressed. Here's hoping they continue to receive funding."
Ummmmm...no.
This isn't a success. The earthquake today was on a completely different segment of the fault, and was significantly weaker than the prediction, not to mention over three weeks after the generous nine month time period.
Don't get me wrong, I like the research, they've had some surprising success in the past, and I hope they continue. But even by the generous error margins allowed for primitive earthquake predictions, they're wrong this time...and if you asked them I'm sure they'd say the same thing.
And yes, I am a geologist.
As another geologist, I agree.
Not sure where the submitter got his information, but this earthquake isn't even related to KB's prediction *at all*. This quake occured 250 miles northwest of KB's proposed area. In fact, it fell within the range of the area for the quake he predicted last year (the San Simeon earthquake).
However, I would be willing to wager that this earthquake *is* the one that the researchers involved in the Parkfield Experiment have been waiting for, only 11 years overdue. Especially since that segment of the S.A.F. through Parkfield has consistantly produced M6.0's or greater roughly every 22 years from 1857 to 1966.